CollectHomepage AdvertisementContact usMessage

Arid Land Geography ›› 2026, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (4): 740-755.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.460

• “Dual Carbon”Research • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Spatiotemporal variation and potential zoning diagnosis of ecosystem carbon sinks in Ningxia

BAO Yubin1(), ZHANG Huijuan1, YANG Xueru1, WANG Yaozong2, LI Qiaomin1, WANG Ke1, HU Sheng3   

  1. 1 Remote Sensing Survey Institute of Ningxia, Yinchuan 750021, Ningxia, China
    2 Ecological Environment Information and Emergency Center of Ningxia, Yinchuan 750021, Ningxia, China
    3 College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710127, Shaanxi, China
  • Received:2025-08-03 Revised:2025-09-09 Online:2026-04-25 Published:2026-04-28

Abstract:

Accurate quantification and analysis of terrestrial ecosystem carbon sinks and their spatiotemporal characteristics are fundamental for optimizing regional ecological carbon sink patterns and promoting low-carbon, sustainable development. Based on long-term remote sensing products, topographic data, and meteorological data, this study constructed an integrated research methodology combining sample plot inventory, remote sensing inversion, machine learning, and linear trend analysis to estimate the long-term carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems in Ningxia, China. A multiperspective spatiotemporal analysis and diagnostic zoning of ecosystem carbon sinks were conducted. The results revealed the following: (1) From 2001 to 2024, Ningxia’s carbon storage showed a significant upward trend, with annual total carbon storage and average carbon storage increasing at rates of 256.86×104 t·a-1 and 0.49 t·hm-2·a-1, respectively. The total carbon storage increased by 6323.08×104 t, reaching 1.67×108 t in 2024. Guyuan City, with an annual carbon storage increase rate of 0.75 t·hm-2·a-1, emerged as the core carbon sink area in Ningxia. (2) Grassland and farmland were the primary contributors to Ningxia’s ecosystem carbon sinks from 2001 to 2024, with carbon storage increasing by 4732.87×104 t, accounting for 41.49% and 33.43% of the total contribution, respectively. Through two phases of ecological restoration (2000—2012 and 2012—2024), including the Grain for Green Program, grazing prohibition, and the Three-North Shelterbelt Project, the conversion among farmland, grassland, and forests increased carbon sinks by 1093.19×104 t, contributing 17.31% to the total increase. Optimizing land-use structure and enhancing vegetation coverage can effectively improve ecosystem carbon sink capacity. (3) From 2001 to 2024, 78.7% of Ningxia’s ecosystem carbon sinks exhibited significant increases, with all cities showing increases of over 66.3%, and Guyuan City reaching 96.0%. Areas with decreases were mainly urbanized regions, accounting for only 3.4%. Areas with high variability (Cv≥0.3) covered 41.0%, predominantly distributed in the arid, semi-arid, and desertified regions of central and northern Ningxia, driven primarily by precipitation. Under future warm-wet trends, 92.75% of Ningxia is projected to sustain increasing carbon storage, indicating its substantial carbon sink potential. The “high-high” clusters identified by Moran’s I index were concentrated in southern Ningxia, expanding from 18.7% in 2001 to 25.1% in 2024, marking these areas as high-priority zones for carbon sink enhancement. These findings provide a scientific basis for ecosystem management, land-use optimization, and the pursuit of “dual-carbon” goals in Ningxia.

Key words: terrestrial ecosystem, ecological carbon sink, random forest model, spatial autocorrelation