基于Cubist模型的天山北坡草地鼠群密度时空分布特征

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2021.471

Abstract

Abstract:

Rodent damage is an important factor affecting grassland ecological health. Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of small rodent population density is crucial for accurate comprehensive rodent control. Previous studies on the spatiotemporal distribution of small rodents were mostly limited to static site distribution or time change analysis of small-scale population density; investigation on the population density change of small rodents on a large temporal and spatial scale is lacking. In this study, the field survey information of small-scale active burrow entrance densities on the grassland on the north slope of Tianshan Mountains from 1982 to 2015 was collected from the literature and combined with environmental variable data. The study area was divided as areas with elevation of ≤900 m and >900 m. The spatiotemporal distribution of active burrow entrance densities was analyzed using the Cubist and random forest (RF) models. The following results were obtained. (1) From 1982 to 2015, the active burrow entrance densities increased in the area with an elevation of ≤900 m on the north slope of Tianshan Mountains, whereas that in the area with an elevation of >900 m decreased. The fitting accuracy of the Cubist model of active burrow entrance densities and environmental factors was better than that of the RF model. (2) Vegetation status, meteorological factors, and grazing intensity were found to be the primary environmental driving factors for the spatiotemporal distribution of active burrow entrance densities on the north slope of Tianshan Mountains. Significant differences in the driving mechanism of active burrow entrance densities were found between the areas with an elevation of ≤900 m and those with an elevation of >900 m on the north slope of Tianshan Mountains. (3) The main factor affecting the spatiotemporal distribution of active burrow entrance densities was the leaf area index and normalized difference vegetation index for the areas with elevation ≤900 m and >900 m, respectively. This difference may be affected by the consumption of different types of vegetation by gerbils (Rhombomys opimus) and yellow rabbit tail rats (Eolagurus luteus).

Key words: active burrow entrance densities, environmental factors, Cubist model, random forest model, northern slope of Tianshan Mountains

PAN Qun,SHI Haiyang,ZHANG Wenqiang,LUO Geping,CHEN Chunbo. Spatiotemporal distribution of rat population density in grassland on the north slope of Tianshan Mountains based on Cubist model[J].Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(4): 1200-1211.

Figures/Tables 7

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Data sources of environmental factors"

环境因子	空间分辨率	数据来源
海拔	30 m	美国地质勘探局全球卫星影像（USGS Earth Explorer, http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov）
坡度	30 m	美国地质勘探局全球卫星影像（USGS Earth Explorer, http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov）
坡向	30 m	美国地质勘探局全球卫星影像（USGS Earth Explorer, http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov）
粉砂含量	1 km	国家冰川冻土沙漠科学数据中心(http://www.ncdc.ac.cn)^[47]
砂土含量	1 km	国家冰川冻土沙漠科学数据中心(http://www.ncdc.ac.cn)^[47]
黏土含量	1 km	国家冰川冻土沙漠科学数据中心(http://www.ncdc.ac.cn)^[47]
归一化植被指数（NDVI）	8 km	美国国家航天航空局（NASA）的全球监测与模型研究组（GIMMS）提供的3g.v1数据（https://ecocast.arc.nasa.gov/data/pub/gimms/）
叶面积指数（LAI）	8 km	NOAA气候数据记录（CDR）的AVHRR叶面积指数（LAI）和吸收光合有效辐射的部分（FAPAR）数据集
年平均气温	1 km	中国1 km分辨率逐月平均气温数据集（1901—2017年）^[48-49]
年最低气温	1 km	中国1 km分辨率月最低温度数据集（1901—2017年）^[49-50]
年最高气温	1 km	中国1 km分辨率月最高温度数据集（1901—2017年）^[49,51]
月平均气温	1 km	中国1 km分辨率逐月平均气温数据集（1901—2017年）^[48-49]
月最高气温	1 km	中国1 km分辨率月最高温度数据集（1901—2017年）^[49,51]
月最低气温	1 km	中国1 km分辨率月最低温度数据集（1901—2017年）^[49-50]
年累积降水量	1 km	中国1 km分辨率逐月降水量数据集（1901—2017年）^[49,52]
调查前3月的平均降水量	1 km	中国1 km分辨率逐月降水量数据集（1901—2017年）^[49,52]
月累积降水量	1 km	中国1 km分辨率逐月降水量数据集（1901—2017年）^[49,52]
放牧强度	0.08333°	世界粮农组织（FAO, http://www.fao.org/livestock-systems/en/）野外实测数据、新疆统计年鉴^[22,53]
短波辐射	0.1°	中国区域地面气象要素驱动数据集（1979—2018年）^[54-55]

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

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数据类型	样本数	最小值/个·hm^-2	最大值/个·hm^-2	平均值/个·hm^-2	标准差
全部数据	275	1	1370	254.23	254.23
海拔≤900 m地区数据	190	4	1220	251.76	222.54
海拔>900 m地区数据	85	1	1370	259.73	253.62

Spatiotemporal distribution of rat population density in grassland on the north slope of Tianshan Mountains based on Cubist model

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