2000—2020年金昌市碳储量时空动态变化及未来多情景预测

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.194

Abstract

Abstract:

Jinchang, located in the arid region of northwest China, is an important resource-based industrial and mining city with high energy consumption. Exploring the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of its carbon reserves and the path of low-carbon development is crucial for implementing the sustainable development of mining cities in the arid region under the background of China’s dual carbon goals. Existing studies reported limited analysis on the complex mechanisms of land transfer and spatial differentiation of carbon storage at the microscale in the northwest region of China, as well as scenario predictions. To address this limitation, this study utilized the PLUS-InVEST model ensemble method and the land use change data of Jinchang City from 2000 to 2020 to comprehensively examine 10 key driving factors. Accordingly, the natural development, ecological protection, and urban development scenarios were established, and the spatial heterogeneity of land use dynamic adjustment and carbon storage in Jinchang City from 2020 to 2030 was simulated. The results showed the following: (1) Unused land, grassland, and cultivated land were the main land uses in Jinchang City from 2000 to 2020. In all, an area of 252.67 km²was transferred from grassland to unused land, and the transferred to construction land was 82.10 km² of unused land was transformed to construction land. (2) In 2000, 2010, and 2020, the carbon storage in the study area continued to decline to 5.70×10⁷ t, 5.52×10⁷ t, and 5.50×10⁷ t, respectively, generating a spatial difference in carbon storage between the southern industrial area and the northeastern ecological area. (3) The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use and carbon storage from 2000 to 2020 showed that the proportion of grassland area transferred to unused land was the largest, resulting in a carbon expenditure of 3.01×10⁶ t, and the conversion of unused land to cultivated land, construction land, and grassland increased the overall carbon storage by 1.25×10⁶ t after conversion. (4) Multi-scenario prediction results revealed that compared with the carbon storage in 2020 that in the natural development, ecological protection, and urban development scenarios declined by 1.34×10⁵ t, 3.13×10⁴ t, and 8.35×10⁵ t, respectively. The research results provide a reference for balancing resource development, land use structure adjustment for ecological protection, soil erosion and its prevention, and low-carbon industrial transformation in Jinchang City in the arid region of northwest China.

Key words: PLUS-InVEST model, land use change, carbon storage, multi-scenario forecasting, Jinchang City

CHEN Lei, CAO Yixiao, JIAO Liang. Spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon storage and future multi-scenario prediction in Jinchang City from 2000 to 2020[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(4): 727-739.

Figures/Tables 12

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数据类型	数据名称	分辨率	数据来源
土地利用变化数据	2000、2010、2020年土地利用数据	30 m	中国科学院资源环境科学与数据中心（https://www.resdc.cn）
气象数据	年平均气温	1 km	地球资源数据云（http://gis5g.com/home）
气象数据	年平均降水量	1 km	地球资源数据云（http://gis5g.com/home）
高程数据	高程	30 m	地理空间数据云（https://www.gscloud.cn）
高程数据	坡度	30 m	由ArcGIS计算生成
社会经济数据	人口密度	1 km	地球资源数据云（http://gis5g.com/home）
	GDP	1 km	地球资源数据云（http://gis5g.com/home）
	距主要公路的距离	1 km	全国地理基础信息目录系统（https://www.webmap.cn）
	距主要铁路的距离	1 km	全国地理基础信息目录系统（https://www.webmap.cn）
	距水域的距离	1 km	全国地理基础信息目录系统（https://www.webmap.cn）
	距居民点的距离	1 km	全国地理基础信息目录系统（https://www.webmap.cn）

土地利用类型	地上生物量碳密度			地下生物量碳密度			土壤碳密度
土地利用类型	碳密度	参考文献	研究范围	碳密度	参考文献	研究范围	碳密度	参考文献	研究范围
耕地	5.7	李克让等^[28]	全国	80.7	解宪丽等^[29]	全国	79.5	张杰等^[32]	西北干旱区
林地	42.4	解宪丽等^[29]	全国	115.9	解宪丽等^[29]	全国	158.8	张杰等^[32]	西北干旱区
草地	35.3	解宪丽等^[29]	全国	86.5	解宪丽等^[29]	全国	99.9	李克让等^[28]	全国
水域	3.0	陈利军等^[30]	全国	0.0	李克让等^[28]	全国	0.0	张杰等^[32]	西北干旱区
建设用地	2.5	陈利军等^[30]	全国	0.0	包玉斌^[31]	西北干旱区	0.0	张杰等^[32]	西北干旱区
未利用地	1.3	陈利军等^[30]	全国	0.0	包玉斌^[31]	西北干旱区	21.6	张杰等^[32]	西北干旱区

土地利用类型	植被碳密度	根系碳密度	土壤碳密度	总碳密度
耕地	1.94	27.50	79.50	108.95
林地	14.45	39.50	158.80	212.75
草地	12.03	29.48	86.62	128.13
水域	1.02	0.00	0.00	1.02
建设用地	0.85	0.00	0.00	0.85
未利用地	0.44	0.00	21.60	22.04

土地利用类型	自然发展情景						生态保护情景						城镇发展情景
耕地	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1
林地	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	1
草地	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	1
水域	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0
建设用地	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
未利用地	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

土地利用变化		变化面积/hm²	变化面积比例/%	碳储量变化/10⁴t		碳储量小计/10⁴t
转出	转入	变化面积/hm²	变化面积比例/%	增加	减少	碳储量小计/10⁴t
耕地	耕地	116744.94	5.66	0.00	-	-23.35
	林地	147.78		1.53	-
	草地	854.64		1.64	-
	水域	88.74		-	-0.96
	建设用地	1638.90		-	-17.72
	未利用地	903.24		-	-7.85
林地	耕地	928.17	2.30	-	-9.64	-15.73
	林地	22474.98		0.00	-
	草地	433.26		-	-3.67
	水域	0.90		-	-0.02
	建设用地	83.97		-	-1.78
	未利用地	33.21		-	-0.63
草地	耕地	7913.25	54.89	-	-15.19	-301.01
	林地	406.26		3.44	-
	草地	206308.98		0.00	-
	水域	299.34		-	-3.81
	建设用地	1367.01		-	-17.40
	未利用地	25266.60		-	-268.05
水域	耕地	55.26	0.44	0.60	-	2.12
	林地	0.45		0.01	-
	草地	111.24		1.41	-
	水域	5027.13		0.00	-
	建设用地	63.81		-	-0.001
	未利用地	49.41		0.10	-
建设用地	耕地	457.47	1.15	4.95	-	7.62
	林地	3.60		0.08	-
	草地	189.36		2.41	-
	水域	2.43		0.00	-
	建设用地	13327.29		0.00	-
	未利用地	86.76		0.18	-
未利用地	耕地	8142.12	35.57	70.76	-	124.97
	林地	449.91		8.58	-
	草地	5958.09		63.21	-
	水域	84.24		-	-0.18
	建设用地	8210.07		-	-17.40
	未利用地	333359.01		0.00	-

Spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon storage and future multi-scenario prediction in Jinchang City from 2000 to 2020

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土地利用类型	2020年碳储量	2035年碳储量
土地利用类型	2020年碳储量	自然发展情景	生态保护情景	城镇发展情景
耕地	146.26	144.32	143.52	145.83
林地	50.05	52.75	54.02	49.37
草地	274.10	272.79	273.37	265.93
水域	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.06
建设用地	0.21	0.26	0.26	0.24
未利用地	79.29	78.44	78.43	80.19

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