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Historical changes and future scenario projections of extreme temperature cold (warm) index in Xinjiang
YANG Yang, CHANG Wei, ZHANG Xingdong
Arid Land Geography    2025, 48 (10): 1747-1759.   DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.796
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To examine the historical and projected variations of cold and warm extreme temperature indices in Xinjiang, China under global warming, this study provides a scientific basis for developing climate adaptation strategies. Using observational data from 52 meteorological stations in Xinjiang (1960—2021) and Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) climate model outputs (1960—2100), models with superior simulation accuracy were selected. Multi-model ensemble means were then applied to analyze four cold and four warm extreme temperature indices during the historical period and under three future scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. The results show that: (1) From 1960 to 2021, cold indices significantly decreased, while warm indices increased, with nighttime changes exceeding daytime variations, reflecting an overall regional warming trend. (2) Future projections (2025—2100) indicate continued decreases in cold indices and increases in warm indices across all scenarios, with the SSP5-8.5 pathway exhibiting the most pronounced changes. (3) Spatially, cold and warm indices change consistently across Xinjiang, with both regional differences and commonalities. Summer days and warm nights exhibit strong similarity under all scenarios, whereas frost days, cool nights, cool days, and growing season length show higher consistency under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Xinjiang is already undergoing an extreme warming process, which is expected to intensify. Strengthening adaptive capacity is therefore essential to ensure sustainable regional development.

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Preliminary study of the diversity of birds in Turpan-Hami Basin
LI Xinyu, LIU Zhengxiao, HU Qian, PENG Yuyang, WANG Hui, LI Jianqiang, YE Xinping, XU Jiliang
Arid Land Geography    2025, 48 (10): 1707-1720.   DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.030
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The Turpan-Hami Basin, an arid region in northwest China, possesses a unique natural environment that has led to the development of a distinct bird community. Despite its ecological significance, the current status of the basin's avifauna remains unclear. We initiated a study to determine the bird diversity within the region. Over six surveys in 2023 and 2024, we utilized multiple complementary methods(line transect surveys, point counts, interviews, and infrared cameras) and integrated these new data with historical records and contributions from the China Bird Report. Our survey results establish the Turpan-Hami Basin as a globally significant avian hotspot. We recorded a remarkable 295 bird species representing 22 orders and 59 families. This community consisted of summer visitors (44.75%, n=132), residents (31.86%, n=94), passage migrants (17.63%, n=52), winter visitors (5.42%, n=16), and vagrant visitors (0.34%, n=1). The region is particularly vital for conservation, as it hosts 11 Class I (e.g., Oxyura leucocephala, Otis tarda, Haliaeetus leucoryphus, Falco cherrug) and 53 Class II (e.g., Tetraogallus himalayensis, Cygnus cygnus, Grus grus, Luscinia svecica) nationally protected species. We also made several key discoveries: The basin is home to the Chinese endemic Podoces biddulphi, and we recorded three species for the first time in the Xinjiang region: Lanius cristatus, Lanius sphenocercus, and Cyanopica cyanus. Habitat analysis revealed a strong association with wetlands, which contained the highest diversity, while shrublands had the lowest. The faunal similarity was highest between residential and farmland habitats, contrasting sharply with the low similarity between wetlands and shrubs. This high diversity and concentration of protected species highlight the urgent need for a robust monitoring program to inform conservation efforts in the basin.

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Muskmelon production pattern and its contributing factors in Xinjiang
LI Liangliang, XIA Yong, WANG Fuhong, GUO Bingxin, ZHAO Lanlan
Arid Land Geography    2025, 48 (9): 1567-1577.   DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.631
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This study explores the production dynamics and yield growth patterns of muskmelons in Xinjiang, China, to enhance farmers’ income in underdeveloped regions and optimize the structure of economic crops. Employing methods such as the gravity center model, standard deviational ellipse, and logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition, it examines muskmelon production patterns and contributory factors at the county level from 2000 to 2021. The findings are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2021, muskmelon production in Xinjiang exhibited significant growth, with planting areas and total output following an “M-shaped” fluctuation trend. Yield per unit area peaked in 2015 but subsequently declined, exerting a notable impact on total production changes. (2) The ratio of counties with increased production to those with decreased production was 1.39:1. The production gravity center shifted gradually from the southwest to the northeast, highlighting significant spatial distribution changes. (3) Planting area and yield per unit area were the primary drivers of production changes. However, from 2015 to 2021, yield per unit area decline negatively impacted production, with a contribution rate of -124.38%.

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Interdecadal changes and associated circulations in the dominant modes of summer rainfall anomaly in the arid region of northwest China
ZHENG Menglin, ZHAO Yong, YANG Xia
Arid Land Geography    2025, 48 (9): 1511-1520.   DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.569
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Based on the data for daily rainfall in summer at 102 meteorological stations in the arid region of northwest China and the monthly ERA5 atmospheric circulation reanalysis data for 1961—2022, the interdecadal changes in the dominant modes of summer rainfall anomaly in the arid region of northwest China and the associated circulations of these modes are investigated. The results show that: (1) The summer rainfall in the arid region of northwest China exhibits obvious interdecadal variation, which can be divided into two periods: the dry period (1961—1986) and the wet period (1987—2022). During the wet period, the increase in rainfall in the Tarim Basin is attributed to an increase in the number of rainfall days and the rainfall intensity, especially the increase in the number of rainfall days, which is more than 2 d, whereas it is attributed to an increase in rainfall intensity in the rest of the region. (2) The dominant modes of summer rainfall in the arid region of northwest China during the dry period are the northern Xinjiang type, the Tarim Basin type, and the Hexi-Alagxa type, whereas during the wet period, the dominant modes of summer rainfall are the northern Xinjiang type, the Hexi-Alagxa type and the western Tarim Basin type. (3) There are obvious differences in the circulations of the same rainfall type over different interdecadal periods, and such differences in circulations are mainly reflected in the movement of the subtropical westerly jet, the structures of the Central Asian cyclone and the Mongolian anticyclone (cyclone), and changes in the source and path of water vapor transport.

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Research progress on the ecological suitability of grassland photovoltaic ecosystem
CHEN Chunbo, LI Gangyong, CHEN Dongbo, ZHAO Yan, PENG Jian, WANG Yugang, LI Junli
Arid Land Geography    2025, 48 (10): 1793-1803.   DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.780
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Photovoltaic (PV) solar power generation is experiencing rapid growth, particularly in large-scale centralized systems. This expansion helps reduce reliance on fossil fuels (coal, oil, etc.) and alleviates climate change pressures. Since 2009, global PV installations have increased by approximately 41% and are projected to grow nearly tenfold by 2040. In China, the area dedicated to PV parks expanded from 5.86 km2 in 2010 to 2920 km2 in 2020, reaching about 3712 km2 by the end of 2022. Grassland photovoltaic ecosystems (GPVEs) established in these parks not only optimize solar energy use but also contribute to grassland conservation. Furthermore, they play an increasingly important role in mitigating climate warming and advancing carbon neutrality. This study examines the effects of large-scale PV parks on local microhabitats both within and outside the park boundaries. PV installations alter microhabitat factors, creating variation in conditions across the front, middle, beneath, and between PV arrays. Generally, such disturbances arise from changes in near-surface energy transmission and equilibrium, leading to modified microclimates, soil temperature, humidity, and physicochemical properties. The adaptability and succession of biological communities (including plants, animals, and soil microorganisms) were investigated in relation to these altered habitats, alongside changes in biogeochemical cycles. PV parks can enhance plant productivity, increase aboveground biomass, and improve vegetation coverage. Notable changes in plant density, species composition, and diversity are largely driven by shading effects. Animal communities show varying adaptability as the parks operate, while PV arrays provide shade for livestock, reducing air temperature and skin humidity, thereby lowering heat stress and thermoregulation costs. Soil microorganisms, essential for sustaining ecosystem services, are directly affected by terrestrial biogeochemical cycles, especially carbon cycling. PV development influences carbon and nitrogen storage in plants (aboveground and belowground) and soil, as well as greenhouse gas emissions. This work integrates themes of green low-carbon technology, digital intelligence, and sustainable development. It highlights the shortcomings and future development directions of GPVEs in an ecological suitability framework. The findings provide guidance for advancing the green development model of “grassland photovoltaics plus” (e.g., photovoltaic grass production and grass-light complementary systems) and for promoting integrated desertification control.

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Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and its influencing factors of net primary productivity of vegetation in Mongolia form 2000 to 2020
HUANG Jing, LI Ting, LI Pengfei, Altansukh OCHIR, YANG Meihuan, WANG Tao, LI Sha
Arid Land Geography    2025, 48 (9): 1541-1554.   DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.609
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Mongolia, China’s northern neighbor, has a grassland ecosystem that is highly susceptible to natural factors and human activities. A univariate linear regression model was used to analyze the spatiotemporal variations in net primary productivity (NPP) of vegetation in Mongolia from 2000 to 2020. A random forest regression model, combined with the Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW) dataset, was used to simulate livestock grazing density in Mongolia for 2020. The geographic detector method was then utilized to examine the factors influencing NPP changes at both national and provincial scales, incorporating indicators such as average annualland surface temperature, average annual precipitation, downward shortwave radiation, soil moisture, NO2 emissions, and the human footprint index. The results indicated that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the NPP in Mongolia exhibited spatial characteristics of increasing in the east and north and decreasing in the west and south. There is an overall increasing trend, dominated by nonsignificant increases, with nonsignificantly increasing areas accounting for 62.539% of Mongolia’s land area. (2) Single-factor analysis revealed that climatic factors were the primary drivers of NPP changes in Mongolia, with downward shortwave radiation (q=0.615) and average annual precipitation (q=0.602) showing the highest contribution. However, the interactions between the human footprint index or NO2 emissions and climatic factors exceeded the explanatory power of individual factors. (3) At the provincial-scale, climate and topography remained the main drivers of NPP changes in the eastern and western regions of Mongolia. In contrast, NPP changes in the Central and Khangai regions of Mongolia were more influenced by the interaction between human activities (grazing density and NO2 emissions) and natural factors, making these areas critical for the prevention and control of future grassland degradation risk. These findings provide scientific insights for the effective management of grassland ecosystems in various regions of Mongolia and for the formulation of sustainable development strategies.

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Spatial mismatch pattern and its influencing factors between the Grain for Green Project and vegetation restoration in the Loess Plateau
WANG Chao, HE Youjun, HAN Lili
Arid Land Geography    2025, 48 (10): 1815-1827.   DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.722
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Vegetation restoration is fundamental to ecological restoration. A systematic analysis of the spatial mismatch between the Grain for Green Project intensity and vegetation restoration is the basis of scientific ecological protection and restoration policies. Based on the relative difference between the realization degree of vegetation restoration potential and the Grain for Green Project intensity, this study analyzed the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of the spatial mismatch pattern of vegetation restoration on the Loess Plateau, and explored its influencing factors by using geographical weighted regression. The results showed that: (1) The effect of vegetation restoration on the Loess Plateau had continuously improved from 2000 to 2022, with the overall realization degree of vegetation restoration potential exceeding 0.75 in 2022. The theoretical maximum value of vegetation restoration potential in southern Qinghai and western Shanxi exceeded 0.60, but the potential realization degree was lower than 0.65, making these areas key for future vegetation restoration. (2) The spatial mismatch index of the Grain for Green Project intensity and vegetation restoration was generally higher than 0.70, indicating a serious spatial mismatch, and this mismatch was gradually spreading throughout the region. (3) Rural population pressure and agricultural industrial structure were the primary factors contributing to the spatial mismatch between the Grain for Green Project intensity and vegetation restoration on the Loess Plateau, which brings challenges to the successful achievement of the ecological objectives of the Grain for Green Project. In the future, the Loess Plateau should focus on optimizing the agricultural industrial structure and increasing the intensification of urban construction land, so as to alleviate the spatial mismatch between the Grain for Green Project intensity and vegetation restoration.

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Spatio-temporal variation and influencing factors of Turpan-Hami region oasis in the past 40 years
ZHOU Ziyu, DANG Ruoyuan, YANG Shuyu, WANG Lei, XU Jiliang, LI Jingwen, AN Lizhe
Arid Land Geography    2025, 48 (10): 1695-1706.   DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.152
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As a strategic hub along the Silk Road Economic Belt, the Turpan-Hami region plays a vital role in maintaining ecological balance and supporting economic development through its evolving oasis systems. This study examines the spatiotemporal characteristics of oasis variations and their driving factors in the Turpan-Hami region, using land use datasets, socioeconomic indicators, and ArcGIS-based oasis delineation techniques. The main findings are as follows: (1) Over four decades, total oasis expansion reached 1651.47 km2, with phased development patterns: Moderate growth of 222.50 km2 during 1980—2000, expansion of 440.71 km2 with marked fluctuations during 2000—2010, followed by accelerated stabilization at 988.26 km2 during 2010—2020. (2) Spatially, the most significant transformations occurred in Aiding Lake Township of Gaochang District and the Alagou River Basin in Turpan City, while in Hami City expansion concentrated on the urban fringe of Yizhou District and the Tianshan Mountain-fed agricultural oases in Barkol Kazakh Autonomous County. (3) The oasis centroid shifted notably, gradually migrating from Shanshan County of Turpan to Yizhou District of Hami, with distinct spatial heterogeneity in trajectory patterns across subregions. (4) Snow water equivalent and socioeconomic factors jointly influenced oasis dynamics, with snow water equivalent identified as the dominant driver. Oasis evolution in Hami showed stronger correlations with socioeconomic indicators (e.g., GDP), whereas in Turpan natural determinants, including snow water equivalent and total water availability, played the primary role. These findings provide an empirical basis for developing sustainable strategies and optimizing water resource governance in this ecologically fragile region.

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Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of soil wind erosion potential on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau
WANG Xiaofei, PI Huawei, LI Sisi
Arid Land Geography    2025, 48 (9): 1589-1599.   DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.577
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Near-surface winds are crucial drivers of soil wind erosion. Thus, the temporal resolution of their data is key to predicting wind erosion models. Here, we analyzed the differences in the simulation and forecasting effectiveness of the revised wind erosion equation (RWEQ) model for wind erosion based on the temporal resolutions of wind-speed data and explored the spatial and temporal patterns of daily soil wind erosion potentials and their driving factors on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau between 2010 and 2020. Our results revealed that: (1) The temporal resolution of wind-speed data significantly impacted the simulation and forecasting effectiveness of the RWEQ model, with hourly data enhancing the simulated wind factor and soil wind erosion potential by 76.95% and 44.02%, respectively, compared with daily data. (2) Enhanced soil wind erosion potential on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau was generally was observed between 12:00 and 18:00, and significantly high spatial variation was observed between 00:00 and 08:00, with the daily variation exhibiting the following cyclical characteristic: “Slow decrease-steep increase-sharp decrease” (the largest and least daily variations were observed at 14:00 and 06:00, respectively, with the daily variations near the Qaidam Basin in subregion Ⅳ accounting for the least, exhibiting the weakest cyclic feature. (3) The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau represented a moderate wind erosion area, and its soil wind erosion potential fluctuated (displaying an increasing pattern from 2010 to 2020, with a multi-year average value of 3.754 kg·m-2), and spatially, the soil wind erosion potential in subregion IV accounted for the largest, although it decreased significantly (-0.522 kg·m-2·a-1, P<0.05). (4) Driver analyses revealed that wind-speed was the dominant driver of the spatial and temporal variability in the soil wind erosion potentials of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, and those factors such as clay content, normalized difference vegetation index, elevation, and human footprints also had an important influence on its variability. The results of this study are of great significance for accurately assessing the risk of land degradation on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, formulating desertification control strategies and ecological construction of wind and sand control.

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Spatiotemporal characteristics of net primary productivity and its response to influencing factors in Xilin Gol League grassland from 2001 to 2024
ZHANG Fei, LI Jian, LI Huirong, XIE Tao, ZHANG Xuehong, WANG Chao, BAI Shuying, SONG Zhengshan
Arid Land Geography    2025, 48 (9): 1555-1566.   DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.759
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CO2 emission reduction is a globally shared concern today, and the voluntary carbon offset (or sequestration increase) market for natural ecosystems, along with its operational models, holds immense development potential. As one of the key natural carbon sinks, grasslands have received widespread attention. This study focuses on the Xilin Gol League in Inner Mongolia of China as the research area, utilizing the Google Earth Engine platform to obtain MODIS data, meteorological reanalysis data, and vegetation coverage data. Based on the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach (CASA) model, the spatiotemporal dynamics of grassland net primary productivity (NPP) from 2001 to 2024 in Xilin Gol League were analyzed. The study investigates the impact of land cover change and climate change on grassland NPP through land use dynamics, partial correlation, and contribution index methods, providing a reference for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals in the region. The results indicate that: (1) From 2001 to 2024, grassland NPP in Xilin Gol League showed a fluctuating upward trend, with a multi-year average of 302.86 g C∙m-2∙a-1 The annual NPP distribution displayed a trend of gradual decrease from the northeast to the southwest. (2) The grassland NPP in Xilin Gol League was mainly driven by changes in land use and climate, with a minor influence from geographic factors, with precipitation having the greatest contribution, reaching 0.84. (3) Over the years, the impact of climate change on grassland NPP gradually outweighed that of land use change, especially in meadow steppe, typical steppe, and desert steppe, where contribution values reached 96.01%, 63.97%, and 93.05%, respectively.

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Characteristics of rainfall and extreme rainfall in southern Xinjiang from 1961 to 2022
Alim ARKEN, LI Ruqi, Nurzat ABDUKEYUM, Mayra AHAT, Xerinay TILIWALDI
Arid Land Geography    2026, 49 (1): 13-22.   DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.349
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Using daily rainfall data from 45 national meteorological observation stations in southern Xinjiang of China from 1961 to 2022, we analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution and variability of rainfall, identified extreme rainfall thresholds, and examined extreme rainfall characteristics. The results show that (1) Over the past 62 years, the region with the highest and most rapidly increasing annual average rainfall in southern Xinjiang has been located in the middle mountain belt at an altitude of 1500-2500 m, with a growth rate of 5.4 mm·(10a)-1. This increase is mainly reflected in the greater number of rainfall days, particularly large-scale rainfall days, while the increase in heavy-rainstorm-level rainfall and above is especially pronounced. (2) Based on a comparative analysis using the percentile method, the 99th percentile was identified as the threshold for extreme rainfall in southern Xinjiang, corresponding to 14.1-35.4 mm. Thresholds in the western and mountain-adjacent regions are higher than those in the eastern basin-desert areas, and the extreme rainfall threshold has increased at a rate of 0.7 mm·(10a)-1. Stations with the most rapid increases are primarily located in the mountainous areas of Kashgar, western Hotan, and northern Bayingol Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture. (3) Over the past 62 years, the number of extreme rainfall events in southern Xinjiang has generally ranged from 10-20 times, while in the Tianshan Mountains, events can persist for more than 20 times. Extreme rainfall events have increased in frequency at a rate of 0.9 events per decade.

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Spatio-temporal variation of glacial albedo and its influencing factors in the Muz Tag Peak area
ZHANG Yujiao, HUAI Baojuan, WANG Shengjie, CHE Yanjun, ZHANG Mingjun
Arid Land Geography    2025, 48 (10): 1760-1770.   DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.776
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Glacier albedo is a key factor influencing the rate of glacier melting and associated environmental changes. In this study, Landsat OLI images with high spatial resolution and MOD10A1 albedo products with high temporal resolution were used to analyze the spatiotemporal variations of glacier albedo and its influencing factors in the Muz Tag Peak area, Xinjiang, China from 2015 to 2020. The results show that: (1) The albedo values derived from Landsat OLI and MOD10A1 are highly consistent, with a strong correlation (R2=0.92). (2) Seasonally, the lowest albedo occurs in summer, while higher values are observed in early autumn. In winter and spring, reduced snowfall and densification of surface snow lead to decreasing albedo. (3) Spatially, glacier surface albedo increases with elevation, following an exponential relationship (R2=0.23 in the ablation area and 0.25 in the accumulation area). (4) Air temperature and precipitation are the primary factors affecting glacier albedo, as higher temperatures and reduced snowfall result in lower albedo. Topography also exerts a significant effect, with gentler slopes exhibiting lower albedo and steeper slopes showing higher albedo. This study provides a scientific basis for understanding glacier change mechanisms in the Muz Tag Peak area and for predicting future climate change.

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Coupling characteristics and influencing factors of water and soil resources at the small watershed scale in Ningxia
XU Jianbin, CAO Xiaoshu
Arid Land Geography    2025, 48 (9): 1531-1540.   DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.611
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The coupling coordination of water and soil resources is of great significance to the sustainable development of ecosystem services in small watersheds. Taking small watersheds of Ningxia, China as the research unit, this study employs the coupling coordination degree model to measure the coupling coordination degree of water-soil resources in the study area. Additionally, the multi-scale geographically weighted regression model is used to explore the influencing factors and spatial heterogeneity of the coupling coordination degree of water-soil resources. The results indicate that: (1) From 2005 to 2020, the coupling coordination degree of water-soil resources in small watersheds of Ningxia increased from 0.37 to 0.43, demonstrating a transition from imbalance to coordination in the regional water and soil resource matching degree. (2) The coupling coordination degree of water-soil resources in small watersheds of Ningxia exhibits a spatial pattern of being higher in the south and lower in the north. Furthermore, from 2000 to 2020, areas of water-soil resources having a coupling coordination degree of high value expanded outward in the southern small watersheds. (3) The proportion of terraced field area, county-level accessibility, and annual average precipitation exert a significant positive impact on the coupling coordination degree of water-soil resources, whereas annual average temperature, vegetation coverage, and erosion intensity have a significant negative impact. The proportion of terraced field area and annual average temperature exert a greater influence on the coupling coordination degree of water-soil resources in the southern small watersheds of Ningxia compared to northern ones, while county-level accessibility and annual average precipitation demonstrate a more significant impact on the same coupling coordination degree in the northern small watersheds of Ningxia than in the southern counterparts. The findings of this study provide a scientific reference for the planning of soil and water conservation measures at the small watershed scale in Ningxia.

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Spatio-temporal shifts in ecological habitat quality of the oasis-desert critical zone on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains: Taking the Yutian Oasis in Hotan Prefecture as an example
Adiljan PARHAT, LI Gangyong, CHEN Chunbo, PENG Jian
Arid Land Geography    2025, 48 (10): 1721-1735.   DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.790
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Habitat is a comprehensive index to evaluate the quality of ecology, reflecting the coupling state of water, soil, air, biology, and other factors. The desertification remote sensing ecological index (DRSEI) can be used as a multi-index evaluation model to quantify the impact of human activities (such as resources and protection) on habitats in arid areas. Specifically, Xinjiang is located in inland northwest China, where the arid ecosystem is fragile. As the oasis-desert critical zone is extremely sensitive to environmental (climatic) changes, there is an urgent need to perform ecological environmental quality assessment. In this research, we explored the spatial and temporal characteristics of the quality of the ecological surroundings quality of the oasis-desert critical zone on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains from 2004 to 2021, using the DRSEI model. Then, considering the Yutian Oasis as the study area, analysis was performed using remote sensing, GIS, and mathematical analysis. The Yutian Oasis is located on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains and in the southern margin of the Tarim Basin, in Hotan Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The Yutian Oasis serves as an important economic and transportation hub on the southern route of the Silk Road. Simultaneously, this study introduces a remote sensing ecological index for desertification, which couples surface vegetation, soil moisture, land surface temperature, surface dryness, and desertification degree. Specifically, they respectively represent land surface greenness, moisture, thermal condition, dryness, and desertification status. The results show that fluctuations in Yutian Oasis habitats increased over time: The value of DRSEI increased from 0.3545 in 2004 to 0.3953 in 2021, a change of 0.0408 (+11.5%); the proportion of excellent DRSEI ∈ (0.6-1.0) increased from 22.45% to 27.27%; and the proportion of poor DRSEI ∈ (0.0-0.2) and moderately poor DRSEI ∈ (0.2-0.4) decreased from 63.31% to 52.82%. Essentially, the soil-regulated vegetation index and humidity index in DRSEI are positive effects, increasing from 2004 to 2021, whereas the degree of soil drying, surface heat, and desertification are negative effects, and decreased over time. The analysis of mathematical statistics (such as Sen, variation coefficient) revealed that the habitat of the Yutian Oasis is generally improving; the proportion of rising areas increases, the center of the oasis is stable, and the local edge areas are fluctuating. A time series prediction was developed and verified in the final step; approximately 62.18% of the Yutian Oasis may decrease in the future, specifically in 24.21% of the area located on the north, northeast, and south edges. In future research, we are planning to focus on the effects of a wide range of soil salinization, in addition to other environmental factors, on ecological surroundings quality in this region. The research findings provide a theoretical basis for protecting the ecological quality of oases in arid regions and offer theoretical support for safeguarding ecological security, border security, and national defense security on the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains.

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Predicting the potential distribution of Artemisia songarica in Xinjiang under climate change based on the MaxEnt model
LI Wenhua, LI Shengyu, XU Xinwen, MIAO Jiamin, LYU Zhentao
Arid Land Geography    2025, 48 (9): 1578-1588.   DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.657
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Artemisia songarica is a crucial species in desert and semi-desert ecosystems, significantly contributing to the maintaince of ecological balance in Xinjiang of China. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, this study predicts the potential suitable habitat distribution of A. songarica under current and future climate scenarios (2041—2060 and 2081—2100) and analyzes the main environmental factors driving its distribution pattern. The key findings are as follow: (1) Under current climatic conditions, the potential suitable habitats of A. songarica are primarily located in northern Xinjiang and along the oasis margins of the dessert in southern Xinjiang, covering approximately 57.95×104 km2. The main environmental determinants include the human footprint index (hfp), precipitation seasonality (bio15), precipitation of the driest month (bio14), isothermality (bio3), and the mean diurnal temperature range (bio2). (2) Excluding human influence factors, a significant expansion of the species’ potential distribution, with an increase in habitat suitability and more consistent habitat connectivity is observed. This suggests that human activities have a detrimental impact on survival and development. (3) Under future climatic scenarios, the potential distribution of suitable habitats largely overlaps with the current distributions. In low radiative forcing scenarios (SSP126) and moderately stable scenarios (SSP245), suitable habitats initially expand and then experience slight contraction. Expansion primarily occurs along the northern edge of Hami City and the southern borders of Hotan and Kashgar Prefectures, while contraction areas are concentrated in the Junggar Basin and southern oasis margins. Under a high radiative forcing scenario (SSP585), suitable habitats expand eastward along the current distribution boundary. Additionally, the centroid of potential suitable habitat is projected to shift toward lower latitudes, with migration distance positively correlated with the intensity of radiative forcing.

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Coupling coordination relationship and influencing factors between urban resilience and ecosystem services in the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration
CHU Wenxi, YANG Xinjun, LI Runyang
Arid Land Geography    2025, 48 (11): 2005-2018.   DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.751
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This study systematically examines the coupling coordination between urban resilience and four key ecosystem services—water production, soil retention, habitat quality, and carbon sequestration—in the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration of northwest China from 2005 to 2020. An integrated framework combining the entropy method, the integrated valuation of northwest ecosystem services and tradeoffs model, and a modified coupling coordination degree model was employed to quantify these interactions, while the geodetector approach was used to identify the dominant influencing factors. The results show that: (1) Urban resilience in the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration steadily increased, with economic, engineering, and social resilience improving simultaneously. In contrast, spatial resilience remains weak, and ecological resilience continues to face significant challenges, although intercity disparities are gradually narrowing. (2) Water production and soil retention improved, whereas habitat quality and carbon sequestration slightly declined, with marked spatial heterogeneity. (3) The coupling coordination between urban resilience and ecosystem services followed an overall increasing trajectory. The relationships with water production and soil retention displayed an N-shaped fluctuation, while those with habitat quality and carbon sequestration showed steady growth. All four exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity. (4) Both natural and socio-economic factors shaped the coupling coordination degree, with key drivers including foreign trade dependence, urbanization rate, and total industrial output value above the designated scale. Non-linear enhancement and two-way enhancement were identified as the dominant interaction mechanisms, underscoring the synergistic effects of multiple factors in driving spatial differentiation. These findings provide important insights into the complex interactions between urban development and ecological systems, offering a scientific basis for promoting sustainable regional development.

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Quantitative research on the impact of coal mining on water resources of the three main coalfields in northern Shaanxi
YANG Anle, JIANG Xiaohui, CHEN Xingchi, ZHANG Lin, XU Fangbing
Arid Land Geography    2025, 48 (9): 1521-1530.   DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.571
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High-intensity coal mining accounts for exacerbated water-resource depletion and ecological vulnerability in arid and semi-arid regions. Therefore, investigating coal-mining-induced surface water and groundwater depletions is pivotal to sustainable water-resource utilization. To address this, static, dynamic, and depletion methods are employed to quantitatively identify water resources depleted by coal mining in 2022 in mining sites within the Jurassic, Carboniferous-Permian, and Triassic coalfields in northern Shaanxi, China. The results reveal the following: (1) Different coalfields exhibit significantly varying hydrogeological characteristics, with the aquifer thickness and coalfield type influencing the variations in the goaf area, water supply degree, and groundwater-damage modulus. (2) Coal mining already accounts for the depletion of 5782.761×105 m3 of static groundwater reserves, specifically facilitating the depletion of 2171.952×105 m3 dynamic reserves in 2022 (mainly in the Salawusu formation aquifer and burned-rock area of the Jurassic coalfield). (3) The total water influx of the mine was 2507.800×105 m3 in 2022, and coal mining triggered the depletions of 486.889×105 m3 and 335.848×105 m3 surface water and groundwater, respectively, with coal mining exerting regional-type impacts on water resources. Overall, these results reveal the quantitative impact of coal mining on water resources, offering a scientific basis for the synergistic management of water-resource protection and development in arid areas.

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Spatio-temporal variations of atmospheric precipitable water in the Qinghai Plateau in the past 60 years
YI Junlan, ZHANG Xian, QI Donglin, XU wei, XIN Pingping
Arid Land Geography    2025, 48 (10): 1736-1746.   DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.652
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Based on data from 42 surface meteorological stations in Qinghai Province, China from 1961 to 2020, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of precipitable water vapor (PWV) on the Qinghai Plateau were calculated and analyzed using an empirical formula between PWV and surface water vapor pressure. Results showed a clear increasing trend in PWV, with maximum values in summer, exhibiting a unimodal distribution. Spatially, PWV increased from west to east and from north to south, with high values in the eastern agricultural area and low values in the Qaidam Basin. Seasonal maxima were observed in the eastern agricultural area, while the minimum occurred in winter. Vertical spatial variation showed the opposite trend, generally increasing from east to west and from south to north, with the smallest values at the eastern and southern edges of the province, and the largest values at the eastern lake region, central Qaidam Basin, and northeastern Qinghai. The annual mean PWV on the Qinghai Plateau exhibited both abrupt and periodic variations, with a significant change detected in 1997. Periodic variations were most pronounced on the 6-10 year timescale. The Hurst exponent values were all greater than 0.8, indicating strong persistence and a high probability that the current upward trend will continue in the future. Correlation analysis revealed that PWV had the lowest correlation with the Asian Meridional Circulation Index and the highest correlation with the Arctic Oscillation Index.

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Prediction of the ecological and water diversion impacts of the channel evolution of the Tarim River mainstream from Yingbazha to Wusiman on both banks
GAO Jiuzhou, LI Lin
Arid Land Geography    2025, 48 (10): 1771-1782.   DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.018
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To investigate the impacts of river-channel erosion and deposition evolution on the ecological sluice gates and water diversion outlets along the middle reaches of the Tarim River mainstream, Xinjiang, China, a fluvial process model of the Yingbazha-Wusiman reach under the 2018 shoreline conditions was established and validated in MIKE21 software. Incorporating the geomorphic acceleration factors, the model simulated the decadal channel evolution under varying water-sediment conditions under five hydrological scenarios (wet, normal, dry, extreme flood, and extreme drought years). The results indicate th following: (1) Significant differences in the river-regime evolution processes under different water and sediment conditions. (2) Diversion-inlet siltation, bend cutoff and bank erosion, channel straightening through meander truncation, and river course realignment in certain river regions during exceptionally heavy flood years and typical high-flow years. In particular, the scour and silting evolution intensifies with increasing incoming water and sediment volumes. The river channel is characterized by meandering paths at low water levels and straighter paths at high water levels. Meanwhile, the morphological changes under high-flow conditions have increased the operational difficulty of diverting the water through the ecological sluice gates, sometimes leading to complete water-diversion failure. For instance, when the siltation elevation at the Kahatuhedi sluice exceeded the maximum flood level by 0.71 m, the water diversion was completely blocked and the ecological water supply to the right bank was compromised. Flow-direction changes in the Yilanlike sluice also threatened the right bank embankments. In dry scenarios, the channel sinuosity increased by 6.8% (to a total length of 212.05 km), albeit with less dramatic morphological changes than in wet years. (3) To maintain the functionality of water diversion, the authors recommend proactive regulatory measures that prevent inlet siltation and bend instability in bend segments containing sluices, particularly in free meanders. These findings enhance our understanding of erosion-deposition trends in meandering reaches of the Tarim River mainstream, providing scientific guidance for future management and sustainable development of the middle reach.

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Spatio-temporal evolution of ecological-economic values in resource-dependent regions and influencing factors: A case study of Inner Mongolia counties
LI Wenlong, GUO Jing, LIN Haiying, PAN Xia
Arid Land Geography    2025, 48 (10): 1855-1865.   DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.784
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The construction of ecological civilization is a critical issue in the current era, and research on the spatiotemporal variations of ecological-economic value and its driving factors is essential for achieving coordinated regional economic growth and ecological protection. Using land-use remote sensing monitoring data from 1983 to 2023, this study applies the equivalent factor method to quantitatively assess ecological-economic value at the county scale in Inner Mongolia, China and to analyze its spatial and temporal evolution. Geodetector and geographically weighted regression models are employed to explore the determinants of spatial differentiation in ecological-economic value. The results indicate that: (1) Land-use types in Inner Mongolia changed significantly between 1983 and 2023, with grassland occupying the largest area and serving as the main source of cultivated land conversion. (2) Ecological economic value declined from 66.34 billion yuan in 1983 to 65.04 billion yuan in 2023, representing a total loss of 1.3 billion yuan. Spatially, ecological economic value exhibited a “high in the north and low in the south” and “high in the east and low in the west” distribution pattern. (3) Average annual temperature and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were the dominant factors influencing ecological-economic value. Temperature showed a negative correlation, while NDVI was positively correlated, increasing from west to east. These findings provide a scientific reference for developing ecological protection policies in Inner Mongolia. Future efforts should emphasize balancing the transformation among different land-use types to promote the synergistic advancement of economic development and ecological protection.

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