山西北部极端降水时空演变规律及与大气环流因子的响应

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.440

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on daily precipitation data from 28 national meteorological stations in northern Shanxi Province, China, from 1972 to 2020, temporal and spatial changes in extreme precipitation in northern Shanxi and their correlation with atmospheric circulation factors and periodic characteristics were studied using linear regression, Pearson correlation analysis, continuous wavelet analysis, and cross wavelet transform analysis. The results show the following: (1) In terms of time, the eight extreme precipitation indices in northern Shanxi increased significantly in the late 1970s and from the late 2010s to the early 2000s: annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT), number of heavy precipitation days (R10mm), soaked days (R95P), extremely wet days (R99P), maximum 1-day precipitation amount (Rx1day), and maximum 5-day precipitation amount (Rx5day). The simple daily intensity index (SDII) increased significantly, and consecutive wet days (CWD) also increased slightly. Precipitation was unusually low throughout the 1980s. (2) Spatially, the extreme precipitation indices gradually increased from northeast to southwest. From the analysis of the stations’ trend change, the extreme precipitation indices of most stations showed an upward trend, with the most significant upward trend of the stations located southwest of Xinzhou City. PRCPTOT and SDII in Shuozhou City and southeast of Xinzhou City showed an increasing trend. However, days of CWD showed a decreasing trend, indicating that the probability of extreme precipitation events in Shuozhou City and the southeast of Xinzhou City was high. (3) Through wavelet transform analysis, it was discovered that the extreme precipitation indices in northern Shanxi had a periodic feature of recurring in approximately 4 years in the past 30 years. Among the selected atmospheric circulation indices, the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO) had the most obvious influence on extreme precipitation in northern Shanxi. The larger the NAO, the smaller the PRCPTOT, R10mm, R95p, R99p, Rx1day, Rx5day, and SDII, and the lower the CWD, the greater the probability of low rainfall and drought in northern Shanxi, which is prone to flash flooding. The research results can provide a scientific theoretical basis for the prevention of meteorological disasters in northern Shanxi.

Key words: extreme precipitation indices, spatiotemporal distribution, atmospheric circulation anomaly factor, wavelet analysis, northern Shanxi

CAI Xia, LIANG Guihua, ZHANG Dongfeng, CAI Lin, BAI Ying, LI Ruifeng. Temporal and spatial evolution of extreme precipitation and its response to atmospheric circulation factors in northern Shanxi Province[J].Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(3): 391-402.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 2

Fig. 4

Tab. 3

Fig. 5

References 34

[1]	IPCC. Climate change 2021: The physical science basis[M/OL]. [2021-08-01]. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCCAR6GIFull_Report.pdf.
[2]	Goswami B N, Venugopal V, Sengupta D, et al. Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment[J]. Science, 2006, 314(5804): 1442-1445. pmid: 17138899
[3]	Griffiths M L, Bradley R S. Variations of twentieth-century temperature and precipitation extreme indicators in the northeast United States[J]. Physical Review B, 2007, 20: 5401-5417.
[4]	Cinco T A, Guzman R G, Hilario F D. Long-term trends and extremes in observed daily precipitation and near surface air temperature in the Philippines for the period 1951—2010[J]. Atmospheric Research, 2014, 145-146: 12-26.
[5]	黄鑫, 焦黎, 马晓飞, 等. 基于RClimDex模型的近60 a中亚极端降水事件变化特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(7): 1039-1051.
	[Huang Xin, Jiao Li, Ma Xiaofei, et al. Change characteristics of extreme precipitation events in Central Asia in recent 60 years based on RClimDex model[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(7): 1039-1051.]
[6]	温煜华, 吕越敏, 李宗省. 近60 a祁连山极端降水变化研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2021, 44(5): 1999-1212.
	[Wen Yuhua, Lü Yuemin, Li Zongxing. Changes of extreme precipitation in Qilian Mountains in recent 60 years[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(5): 1999-1212.]
[7]	赵一飞, 邹欣庆, 张勃, 等. 黄土高原甘肃区降水变化与气候指数关系[J]. 地理科学, 2015, 35(10): 1325-1332. doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.010.1325
	[Zhao Yifei, Zou Xinqing, Zhang Bo, et al. Precipitation variation in association with climate indices in Loess Plateau of Gansu Province, northwest China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2015, 35(10): 1325-1332.] doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.010.1325
[8]	Whan K, Zwiers F. The impact of ENSO and the NAO on extreme winter precipitation in North America in observations and regional climate models[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2017, 48(5-6): 1401-1411. doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3148-x
[9]	Gao T, Wang H J, Zhou T. Changes of extreme precipitation and nonlinear influence of climate variables over monsoon region in China[J]. Atmospheric Research, 2017, 197: 379-389. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.07.017
[10]	李湘瑞, 范可, 徐志清. 2000年后中国北方东部地区夏季极端降水减少及水汽输送特征[J]. 大气科学, 2019, 43(5): 1109-1124.
	[Li Xiangrui, Fan ke, Xu Zhiqing. Decrease in extreme precipitation in summer over east northern China and the water-vapor transport characteristics after year 2000[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2019, 43(5): 1109-1124.]
[11]	Ii M Q V, Matsumoto J. Significant influences of global mean temperature and ENSO on extreme rainfall in Southeast Asia[J]. Journal of Climate, 2015, 28(5): 1905-1919. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00531.1
[12]	武文博, 游庆龙, 王岱, 等. 中国东部夏季极端降水事件及大气环流异常分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2018, 23(1): 47-58.
	[Wu Wenbo, You Qinglong, Wang Dai, et al. Characteristics of extreme precipitation and associated anomalous circulations over eastern China during boreal summer[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2018, 23(1): 47-58.]
[13]	申乐琳, 何金海, 周秀骥, 等. 近50年来中国夏季降水及水汽输送特征研究[J]. 气象学报, 2010, 68(6): 918-931.
	[Shen Lelin, He Jinhai, Zhou Xiuji, et al. The reginoal variabilities of the summer rainfall in China and its relation with anomalous moisture transport during the recent 50 years[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2010, 68(6): 918-931.]
[14]	张勇, 杨春瑰, 唐卫亚. 长江中下游1-5月降水分布型及其成因[J]. 大气科学学报, 2015, 38(1): 111-119.
	[Zhang Yong, Yang Chungui, Tang Weiya. Precipitation patterns in the middle and low reaches of Yangtze River during January-May and their causes[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 38(1): 111-119.]
[15]	吴舒祺, 赵文吉, 杨阳, 等. 基于小波变换的长江中下游地区极端降水与大气环流响应关系研究[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2021, 32(4): 67-77.
	[Wu Shuqi, Zhao Wenji, Yang Yang, et al. Response of extreme precipitation events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin to the atmospheric circulation based on continuous wavelet transform[J]. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering, 2021, 32(4): 67-77.]
[16]	佘敦先, 夏军, 张永勇, 等. 近50年来淮河流域极端降水的时空变化及统计特征[J]. 地理学报, 2011, 66(9): 1200-1210.
	[She Dunxian, Xia Jun, Zhang Yongyong, et al. The trend analysis and statistical distribution of extreme rainfall events in the Huaihe River Basin in the past 50 years[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(9): 1200-1210.] doi: 10.11821/xb201109005
[17]	王昊, 姜超, 王鹤松, 等. 中国西南部区域雨季极端降水指数时空变化特征[J]. 中国农业气象, 2019, 40(1): 1-14.
	[Wang Hao, Jiang Chao, Wang Hesong, et al. Spatial and temporal variation of extreme precipitation indices in southwestern China in the rainy season[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2019, 40(1): 1-14.]
[18]	王莉萍, 王维国, 张建忠. 我国主要流域降水过程时空分布特征分析[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2018, 27(2): 161-173.
	[Wang Liping, Wang Weiguo, Zhang Jianzhong. Spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation processes in major river basins in China[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2018, 27(2): 161-173.]
[19]	陈星任, 杨岳, 何佳男, 等. 近60年中国持续极端降水时空变化特征及其环流因素分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2020, 29(9): 2068-2081.
	[Chen Xingren, Yang Yue, He Jianan, et al. Spatio-temporal change of persistent extreme precipitation and the associated circulation causes over China in the last 60 years[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2020, 29(9): 2068-2081.]
[20]	邹磊, 余江游, 王飞宇, 等. 渭河流域极端降水时空演变规律及其对大气环流因子的响应[J]. 干旱区研究, 2021, 38(3): 764-774.
	[Zou Lei, Yu Jiangyou, Wang Feiyu, et al. Spatial-temporal variations of extreme precipitation indices and their response to atmospheric circulation factors in the Weihe River Basin[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2021, 38(3): 764-774.]
[21]	丁莹莹, 邱德勋, 吴常雪, 等. 关中平原极端降水时空变化及其与大气环流的关系应[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(1): 104-112.
	[Ding Yingying, Qiu Dexun, Wu Changxue, et al. Spatial-temporal variations in extreme precipitation and their relationship with atmospheric circulation in the Guanzhong Plain[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(1): 104-112.]
[22]	曹永旺, 延军平. 1961—2013年山西省极端气候事件时空演变特征[J]. 资源科学, 2015, 37(10): 2086-2098.
	[Cao Yongwang, Yan Junping. Temporal and spatial analysis of extreme climatic events in Shanxi Province from 1961 to 2013[J]. Resources Science, 2015, 37(10): 2086-2098.]
[23]	董伯纲, 于洋. 近60年山西省极端降水时空变化特征[J]. 水土保持学报, 2022, 36(1): 135-141.
	[Dong Bogang, Yu Yang. Tempo-spatial variation characteristics of extreme precipitation in Shanxi Province in recent 60 years[J]. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 2022, 36(1): 135-141.]
[24]	戎晓庆, 庞奖励, 韩军青. 山西省1958—2012年旱涝灾害分布趋势及气候背景研究[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2018, 32(9): 97-102.
	[Rong Xiaoqing, Pang Jiangli, Han Junqing. Distribution trends of drought and flood disasters and climate background from 1958 to 2012 in Shanxi Province[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2018, 32(9): 97-102.]
[25]	张春林, 牛景波, 牛俊杰. 山西黄土高原近50年来气候暖干化研究[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2008, 22(2): 70-74.
	[Zhang Chunlin, Niu Jingbo, Niu Junjie. Study on warming and drying climate of Shanxi Loss Plateau in recent 50 years[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2008, 22(2): 70-74.]
[26]	山西省地方志编撰委员会办公室. 山西通志气象志[M]. 北京: 中华书局, 1999: 82-86.
	[Shanxi Provincial Local Chronicles Compilation Committee Office. Meteorological records of Shanxi[M]. Beijing: Zhonghua Book Company, 1999: 82-86.]
[27]	魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]. 第二版. 北京: 气象出版社, 2007: 63-66.
	[Wei Fengying. Modern climate statistical diagnosis and prediction technology[M]. 2^nd ed. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2007: 63-66.]
[28]	汤国安, 杨昕. ArcGIS地理信息系统空间分析实验教程[M]. 第二版. 北京: 科学出版社, 2012: 289-292.
	[Tang Guoan, Yang Xin. ArcGIS spatial analysis experiment course[M]. 2^nd ed. Beijing: Science Press, 2012: 289-292.]
[29]	王霞, 吴加学. 基于小波变换的西、北江水沙关系特征分析[J]. 热带海洋学报, 2009, 28(1): 21-28.
	[Wang Xia, Wu Jiaxue. Wavelet analyses of rating curves in Xijiang and Beijiang Rivers[J]. Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2009, 28(1): 21-28.]
[30]	Tan X, Gan T Y, Shao D. Wavelet analysis of precipitation extremes over Canadian ecoregions and teleconnections to largescale climate anomalies[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2016, 121: 469-486.
[31]	Grinsted A, Moore J C, Jevrejeva S. Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series[J]. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 2004, 11: 561-566. doi: 10.5194/npg-11-561-2004
[32]	Lin Q, Wu Z, Singh V P, et al. Correlation between hydrological drought, climatic factors, reservoir operation, and vegetation cover in the Xijiang Basin, south China[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2017, 549: 512-524. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.04.020
[33]	邵骏. 基于交叉小波变换的水文多尺度相关分析[J]. 水力发电学报, 2013, 32(2): 22-26, 42.
	[Shao Jun. Multi-scale correlation analysis of hydrological time series based on cross wavelet transform[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Power, 2013, 32(2): 22-26, 42.]
[34]	蔡霞, 蔡琳, 李亚军, 等. 山西北部极端气候事件与农业气象灾害分析[J]. 江西农业学报, 2023, 35(2): 121-127.
	[Cai Xia, Cai Lin, Li Yajun, et al. Analysis of extreme climatic events and agrometeorological disasters in northern Shanxi Province[J]. Journal of Jiangxi Agricultural Sciences, 2023, 35(2): 121-127.]

指数	英文缩写	指数定义	单位
日降水强度	SDII	年降水总量与湿日日数（日降水量≥1 mm）的比值	mm·d^-1
年总降水量	PRCPTOT	日降水量≥1 mm年累计降水量	mm
1 d最大降水量	Rx1day	每月最大1 d降水量	mm
5 d最大降水量	Rx5day	每月连续5 d最大降水量	mm
强降水量	R95p	日降水量>95%分位值的年累计降水量	mm
极强降水量	R99p	日降水量>99%分位值的年累计降水量	mm
中雨以上日数	R10mm	日降水量≥10 mm的日数	d
持续湿期日数	CWD	日降水量≥1 mm的最大持续日数	d

指数	上升趋势站点个数	显著上升站点个数	上升趋势站点占比/%	下降趋势站点个数	显著下降站点个数	下降趋势站点占比/%
PRCPTOT	23	2	82.1	5	0	17.9
Rx1day	16	3	57.1	12	0	42.9
Rx5day	21	0	75.0	7	0	25.0
R10mm	25	7	89.3	3	0	10.7
R95p	19	2	67.9	9	0	32.1
R99p	15	2	53.6	13	1	46.4
SDII	27	3	96.4	1	0	3.6
CWD	12	1	42.9	16	1	57.1

类型	NAO	AO	WP	NP	SOI	AMO	SN	PDO	亚洲区极涡面积指数
PRCPTOT	-0.17	0.01	-0.08	0.04	0.07	0.23	-0.16	0.04	-0.21
Rx1day	-0.35^**	-0.22	-0.14	-0.07	0.14	0.27^*	-0.13	-0.16	-0.24^*
Rx5day	-0.27^*	-0.23	-0.17	0.13	0.09	0.22	-0.02	-0.04	-0.23
R10mm	-0.14	0.10	-0.08	0.02	-0.01	0.28^*	0.18	0.09	0.27^*
R95p	-0.28^*	-0.23	-0.18	0.10	0.17	0.24^*	-0.21	-0.05	-0.20
R99p	-0.28^*	-0.28^*	-0.15	0.11	0.09	0.19	-0.17	-0.06	-0.17
SDII	-0.30^**	-0.15	-0.19	0.09	0.08	0.34^**	-0.23	-0.01	-0.29^**
CWD	0.06	0.13	-0.003	0.15	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	0.07	-0.01

Temporal and spatial evolution of extreme precipitation and its response to atmospheric circulation factors in northern Shanxi Province

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 8

References 34

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

[1]	HUANG Xin, JIAO Li, MA Xiaofei, WANG Yonghui, Aerman ABULA. Change characteristics of extreme precipitation events in Central Asia in recent 60 years based on RClimDex model [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(7): 1039-1051.
[2]	LI Lele, CHAO Jinlong, ZHAO Deyi, LI Haojie, WU Lindong, LI Jiajun. Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of rainstorm and risk assessment of rainstorm disasters in Shanxi Province from 1957 to 2019 [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(5): 689-699.
[3]	WU Zhixiang, ZHANG Zhibin, ZHAO Xuewei, CHEN Long, MA Xiaomin, CHAI Jiao. Spatiotemporal distribution pattern and influencing factors of A-level tourist attractions in northwestern China [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(12): 2061-2073.
[4]	WEN Yuhua,LYU Yuemin,LI Zongxing. Changes of extreme precipitation in Qilian Mountains in recent 60 years [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(5): 1199-1212.
[5]	ZHANG Xueqi,XIA Qianqian,CHEN Yaning,XIA Zhenhua,ZHU Chengang,LI Jinglong,HAO Haichao,XIANG Yanyun. Effects of ecological water conveyance on gross primary productivity of vegetation in Tarim River in recent 20 years [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(3): 718-728.
[6]	TIAN Ya-lin, LI Xue-mei, LI Zhen, QIN Qi-rui. Spatial and temporal variations of different precipitation types in the Tianshan Mountains from 1980 to 2017 [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(2): 308-318.
[7]	JIANG Meng-di, ZHANG Peng-li, LIANG Bo-yi, LI Yu. Relationship between the distribution of Neolithic cultural sites and topography in the Lanzhou Basin [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(1): 27-37.
[8]	QI Xiao-fan, LI Wen-peng, LI Hai-tao, CUI Hu-qun, FENG Wei. Response characteristics of mountainous runoffs of the inland rivers in arid areas of China to watershed meteorological elements and global climate indices [J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(6): 1184-1193.
[9]	HAN Liu, WANG Jing-pu, WANG Guang-zhen, WANG Zhou-long, WU Meng-quan. Spatial and temporal characteristics of average wind speed in the wind erosion region of northern China [J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(5): 963-971.
[10]	QIN Rong, LI Lin-chao, YANG Xian, YANG Hua, YANG Yan-ling, HE Ya-ping. Change of pan evaporation in Xinjiang and its periods based on wavelet analysis [J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(5): 954-962.
[11]	LUAN Fu-ming, WANG Fang, XIONG Hei-gang. Spatio-temporal distribution of cultural sites and geographic backgrounds in the Ili River Valley [J]. , 2017, 40(1): 211-221.
[12]	BI Shuo-ben, QIAN Yu-jun, CHEN Chang-chun, LI Xing-yu, XU Meng-ya. Characteristics and comparative analysis of reconstructed drought/flood grade sequence in the eastern Northwest China from 1470 to 1912 [J]. , 2016, 39(1): 12-21.
[13]	ZHANG Ying-hua, SONG Xian-fang. Techniques of abrupt change detection and trends analysis in hydroclimatic time-series:Advances and evaluation [J]. , 2015, 38(4): 652-665.
[14]	LUAN Fu-ming，XIONG Hei-gang，WANG Fang，SHI Hui，WANG Zhao-guo，ZHANG Fang，WANG Jing-jing. Inversion of soil available kalium content with hyperspectral reflectance based on wavelet analysis [J]. , 2015, 38(2): 320-326.
[15]	LI Hong-ying，GAO Zhen-rong，WANG Sheng，WANG Hai-yan. Extreme temperature variation of Hexi Corridor in recent 60 years [J]. , 2015, 38(1): 1-9.