塔里木河“四源”洪水演变规律及成因分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2023.353

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on temperature, precipitation, and snow depth data from five hydrological stations in four sources of the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang, China, from 1981 to 2020, flood magnitude, frequency, and peak time were analyzed using maximum and peak-over-threshold (POT) sampling methods. Moreover, correlation analysis was performed to reveal the relationship between different flood indicators and influencing factors and identify key influencing factors. The results show the following: (1) From 1981 to 2020, the peak discharge of each hydrological station in “four sources” of the Tarim River Basin is as follows: Kaqung>Xehera>Tongguzlok>Sharikilank>Daschankou. The annual and seasonal flood peak discharge generally exhibited an increasing trend, and the occurrence time of the flood peak in winter exhibited an earlier state, among which the average annual advance of Sharikilank was 2.61 days, whereas that of the Kaqung station was only 0.67 days. (2) There were two periods of high flooding in the Tarim River Basin, namely, 1994—2002 and 2006—2011, with several flood occurrences in the Tarim River Basin after 1990. (3) The minimum temperature, precipitation, and snow depth at different times before the floods mainly exhibited an increasing trend, while the maximum temperature mainly exhibited a decrease. The highest correlation was found between spring flood indicators and maximum 3-day precipitation, whereas the highest correlation was found between autumn flood indicators and maximum 7-day precipitation. The correlation between multi-day precipitation and flood indicators was higher than that between single-day precipitation and flood indicators. Among the snow depth-related factors, the maximum 15-day snow depth had the highest correlation with spring flood indicators at each station. These findings provide a theoretical basis for regional water resource management and flood disaster prediction.

Key words: flood, recurrence period, POT sampling, four sources streams of Tarim River

WU Xiaodan, LUO Min, MENG Fanhao, SA Chula, DONG Jinyi, LIU Tie. Evolution law and causes of floods in the four sources streams of Tarim River[J].Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(1): 15-27.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Tab. 1

Nine flood indicators used in the study"

洪水指标定义	简称	单位
年最大1 d流量	AMF	m³ $∙$ s^-1
年最大1 d流量发生日期	AMFD	d
春季（3—5月）最大1 d流量	AMFSp	m³ $∙$ s^-1
夏季（6—8月）最大1 d流量	AMFSu	m³ $∙$ s^-1
秋季（9—11月）最大1 d流量	AMFAu	m³ $∙$ s^-1
冬季（12月—次年2月）最大1 d流量	AMFWi	m³ $∙$ s^-1
POT超过阈值洪峰流量	POT3M	m³ $∙$ s^-1
每年POT样本数量	POT3F	次
每年POT洪水发生平均日期	MDF	d

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

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站点名称	AMFSp /m³·s^-1	AMFSu /m³·s^-1	AMFAu /m³·s^-1	AMFWi /m³·s^-1	AMF /m³·s^-1	AMFD /d	POT3M /m³·s^-1	POT3F /次	MDF /d
沙里桂兰克	375.19	537.52	209.76	31.22	568.65	180.48	608.38	4.89	180.24
协和拉	240.17	1326.45	399.03	77.87	1326.45	214.00	1157.89	3.33	212.91
大山口	236.90	390.65	195.75	89.79	399.35	214.18	459.23	7.50	195.70
同古孜洛克	71.08	637.13	192.77	14.02	637.13	188.25	677.50	4.60	211.31
卡群	159.88	1423.10	580.18	70.46	1423.10	217.08	1505.56	5.72	215.20

Evolution law and causes of floods in the four sources streams of Tarim River

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