塔里木河流域生态系统服务价值与土地利用的动态变化

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.122

Abstract

Abstract:

This research integrates the Flus-Markov model and the equivalent factor method to analyze dynamic changes in the land use patterns in the Tarim River Basin from 2012 to 2032, evaluate the spatiotemporal characteristics of ecosystem service value (ESV), and predict its future trends, based on Landsat remote sensing images and socioeconomic data. The results show that: (1) From 2012 to 2032, the area of unused land and water first decreased and then increased, while the cultivated land area expanded and grassland degraded significantly continuously, resulting in a decrease of 2093.72×10⁸ yuan in the total ESV. The contributions of grassland and water decreased by 2984.17×10⁸ yuan and 38.44×10⁸ yuan, respectively. (2) The spatial distribution of ESV shows a significant gradient, decreasing from high values in the northwest to low values in the southeast. Hydrological regulation, climate regulation, and gas regulation are key service functions. (3) Sensitivity analysis shows that changes in water bodies and grasslands have the greatest impact on ESV. A low value of the elasticity of coefficient correction indicates that the estimation results are robust. Model validation reveals a Kappa coefficient of 0.95, indicating reliable prediction accuracy. (4) Land use and normalized difference vegetation index are the main factors influencing the ESV of the Tarim River Basin. This study reveals the correlation between the degradation of ecological service functions and increased land use in the Tarim River Basin. ESV could be improved by optimizing land use structure, strengthening grassland and water conservation, and providing a scientific basis for ecological security and sustainable development in arid areas.

Key words: ecosystem service value, land use, Flus-Markov, dynamic changes, Tarim River Basin

ZENG Yong, BI Yu, ZHANG Hongbin, SHI Fengzhi, WANG Peng. Dynamic changes of ecosystem service value and land use in the Tarim River Basin[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(2): 265-274.

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数据类型	数据名称	数据来源
基础数据	遥感影像数据（2012、2022年）	美国地勘局（USGS）网站（https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov）
	道路数据	OpenstreetMap （http://www.openstreetmap.org/）
	行政边界数据	国家地理信息公共服务平台（https://www.tianditu.gov.cn/）
社会经济数据	人口数据	Worldpop（https://hub.worldpop.org/）
社会经济数据	GDP	新疆维吾尔自治区统计局（https://tjj.xinjiang.gov.cn）
	夜间灯光指数	Earth observation group （https://eogdata.mines.edu）
	粮食平均收购价格	新疆维吾尔自治区统计局（https://tjj.xinjiang.gov.cn）
	粮食作物产量	新疆维吾尔自治区统计局（https://tjj.xinjiang.gov.cn）
气候环境数据	气温	青藏高原数据中心（https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/）
	年总降水量	青藏高原数据中心（https://data.tpdc.ac.cn/）
	高程	地理空间数据云（https://www.gscloud.cn/）
	归一化植被指数（NDVI）	美国航空航天局（https://www.nasa.gov/）

交互作用类型	比较
q(x₁∩x₂)<Min[q(x₁),q(x₂)]	非线性减弱
Min[q(x₁),q(x₂)]<q(x₁∩x₂)<Max[q(x₁),q(x₂)]	单因子非线性减弱
q(x₁∩x₂)>Max[q(x₁),q(x₂)]	双因子增强
q(x₁∩x₂)=q(x₁)+q(x₂)	独立
q(x₁∩x₂)>q(x₁)+q(x₂)	非线性增强

年份	土地利用类型
年份	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地
2012	4.82	0.14	20.38	4.23	0.21	93.97
2022	5.30	0.18	20.46	3.70	0.33	93.80
2032	5.65	0.15	19.46	4.23	0.31	93.97
2012—2022	0.48	0.04	0.07	-0.53	0.11	-0.17
2022—2032	0.35	-0.03	-1.00	0.53	-0.02	0.17

土地利用类型	2012年	2022年	2032年	2012—2032年	变化趋势
耕地	5223.65	5739.72	6119.79	896.13	上升
林地	743.15	915.00	763.40	20.25	上升
草地	65506.60	65760.50	62522.40	-2984.17	下降
水域	75343.70	65730.80	75305.20	-38.44	下降
建设用地	25.60	39.98	37.85	12.25	上升
未利用地	16096.80	16051.50	16097.10	0.25	上升

服务类型		耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地	总和
供给服务	食物生产	2942.88	672.47	621.44	1163.04	0.00	13.32	5413.14
	原料生产	652.49	1544.68	914.38	648.06	0.00	39.95	3799.56
	水资源供给	-2756.45	639.18	506.02	11576.21	0.00	26.63	9991.58
调节服务	气体调节	2370.28	5080.13	3213.65	11576.21	53.26	173.11	22466.65
	气候调节	1238.41	15200.43	8495.73	5708.21	0.00	133.16	30775.94
	净化环境	359.54	4454.27	2805.28	8264.92	266.32	545.96	16696.29
	水文调节	3582.06	8988.43	6223.10	118602.91	772.34	319.59	138488.43
支持服务	土壤保持	1384.88	6185.37	3914.96	2876.30	53.26	199.74	14614.52
	养分循环	412.80	472.72	310.71	2219.38	0.00	13.32	3428.94
	生物多样性	452.75	5632.75	3559.86	9259.19	53.26	186.43	19144.25
文化服务	美学景观	199.74	2470.15	1571.31	5956.78	26.63	79.90	10304.51

Dynamic changes of ecosystem service value and land use in the Tarim River Basin

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土地利用类型	2012年	2022年	2032年
耕地	0.1356	0.0356	0.0380
林地	0.0041	0.0059	0.0047
草地	0.3590	0.4271	0.3887
水域	0.4129	0.4269	0.4682
建设用地	0.0001	0.0003	0.0002
未利用地	0.0882	0.1042	0.1001

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