基于土地利用的中国农业人口格网分布特征分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.460

Abstract

Abstract:

This study addresses the critical need for precise agricultural population distribution data to inform modern agricultural system development and policy formulation. We integrated country-level demographic data from the Seventh National Population Census with the China Land Use Remote Sensing Monitoring Dataset to develop a novel grid-based spatial distribution model. This methodological approach enabled the first comprehensive visualization of China’s agricultural population density at a 1 km resolution, with validation metrics confirming the high statistical reliability of the results. Our spatial analysis revealed three significant geographic patterns: (1) The Hu Huanyong Line (Hu Line) presents a profound demographic divide, with southeastern regions exhibiting an average agricultural population density (30.57 persons·km^-2) nearly 15.9 times higher than northwestern regions (1.92 persons·km^-2). (2) Agricultural population distribution follows China’s three-tiered topographical gradient, with densities increasing significantly from the western plateau (0.98 persons·km^-2) through the central highlands (11.27 persons·km^-2) to the eastern plains (30.76 persons·km^-2). (3) Environmental determinants strongly influence agricultural settlement patterns, creating a clear dichotomy between densely populated warm, humid, low-altitude agricultural zones, and sparsely distributed cold-arid plateau and hilly agricultural regions. These findings provide an empirical basis for targeted agriculture development strategies: Prioritizing digital agriculture technologies in high-density regions like the Huang-Huai Plain; developing integrated agritourism models in ecologically sensitive areas; and implementing specialized training programs to cultivate a professional agricultural workforce adapted to regional conditions.

Key words: agricultural population, land use type, population gridding method, Hu Huanyong Line, three tiered terrain ladder, accuracy verification

MI Ruihua, NI Shilong, LIU Shumin. Analysis of grid distribution characteristics of agricultural population in China based on land use data[J].Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(6): 1006-1019.

Figures/Tables 14

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土地利用类型	地类代码	编号（j）	权重（f_j）
土地利用类型	地类代码	编号（j）	方案1	方案2	方案3
水田	11	1	20.00	12.00	10.00
旱地	12	2	7.00	5.00	4.00
林地	20	3	3.00	2.20	2.00
草地	30	4	3.00	3.50	1.90
水域	40	5	0.45	0.80	0.09
城镇用地	51	6	3.00	3.00	5.00
农村居民点	52	7	3.50	3.00	5.00
其他建设用地	53	8	60.00	70.00	72.00
未利用土地	60	9	0.05	0.50	0.01

胡焕庸线两侧	国土面积占比/%	水田占比/%	旱地占比/%	农业人口
胡焕庸线两侧	国土面积占比/%	水田占比/%	旱地占比/%	占比/%	密度/人·km^-2	人均耕地面积/hm²
东南半壁	42.65	98.14	77.86	92.22	30.57	1.18
西北半壁	57.35	1.86	22.14	7.78	1.92	2.86
合计	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	-	-

地势三级阶梯	国土面积占比/%	水田占比/%	旱地占比/%	农业人口
地势三级阶梯	国土面积占比/%	水田占比/%	旱地占比/%	占比/%	密度/人·km^-2	人均耕地面积/hm²
第一级阶梯	27.71	0.20	2.35	1.92	0.98	1.23
第二级阶梯	43.13	22.55	42.59	34.47	11.27	1.43
第三级阶梯	29.16	77.25	55.06	63.61	30.76	1.25
合计	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	-	-

区划编号	现代农业区划	国土面积占比/%	水田占比/%	旱地占比/%	农业人口
区划编号	现代农业区划	国土面积占比/%	水田占比/%	旱地占比/%	占比/%	密度/人·km^-2	人均耕地面积/hm²
Ⅳ	黄淮平原区	2.97	7.47	11.98	13.97	66.52	1.02
Ⅲ	京津冀鲁平原丘陵区	3.41	0.54	12.70	12.87	53.39	0.98
Ⅹ	四川盆地区	3.63	12.50	7.69	9.19	35.85	1.27
Ⅻ	华南热作区	3.55	6.80	3.78	7.99	31.94	0.75
Ⅴ	长江中下游平原区	4.38	29.13	3.27	9.88	31.89	1.30
Ⅵ	东南沿海丘陵区	1.68	5.30	0.73	3.30	28.21	0.75
Ⅺ	云贵高原区	5.87	7.87	6.58	10.54	25.37	0.86
Ⅱ	东北平原区	5.01	7.11	15.34	8.73	24.66	1.99
Ⅶ	江南丘陵区	5.22	17.07	2.56	8.55	23.14	0.95
Ⅸ	黄土高原区	4.88	0.50	12.37	7.19	20.84	1.71
Ⅰ	东北山地丘陵区	6.58	4.49	6.62	1.68	3.61	4.77
Ⅷ	内蒙古高原区	6.72	0.76	6.45	1.67	3.53	3.92
ⅩⅢ	甘新沙漠高原区	22.03	0.03	7.72	2.47	1.58	3.08
ⅩⅣ	青藏高原区	24.07	0.43	2.21	1.97	1.16	1.17
	合计	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	-	-

权重方案	RMSE	MAE	MAPE/%	r
方案1	55.65	33.71	2.45	0.999
方案2	58.43	35.64	2.69	0.999
方案3	58.30	35.37	2.77	0.999

Analysis of grid distribution characteristics of agricultural population in China based on land use data

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格网尺度/km	RMSE	MAE	MAPE/%	r
1	55.65	33.71	2.45	0.999
10	413.15	268.23	21.51	0.997
50	1494.44	983.54	73.52	0.950