基于GeoSOS-FLUS和InVEST模型的新疆地区土地利用变化模拟及碳储量预测

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.090

Abstract

Abstract:

Carbon storage plays an crucial role in terrestrial ecosystems. The change of land use is one of the key factors influencing the carbon cycle and carbon storage in regional ecosystems. This study focuses on Xinjiang as the research area, utilizing land use data from 1980 to 2022 and coupling the GeoSOS-FLUS and InVEST models to analyze the changes in land use and carbon storage in Xinjiang from 1980 to 2022. Additionally, the study simulates changes in land use and carbon storage under three scenarios, namely, the natural development scenario (DAU), ecological protection scenario (EPS), and rapid development scenario (RDS), for the years 2030 and 2060. The results show that: (1) From 1980 to 2022, unused land accounted for the largest proportion of land types in Xinjiang, and the total area of cultivated land, forest land with <30% canopy density, grassland with >20% coverage, and construction land increased. In contrast, forest land with >30% canopy density and woodlands, grassland with <20% coverage, water bodies, and unused land decreased. (2) Excluding unused land, during the period from 2030 to 2060, farmland and grassland remained the dominant land use types. (3) From 1980 to 2022, carbon storage initially increased, followed by a decrease, with 2010 as the turning point. The expansion of construction land, degradation of forest and grassland, and reduction of water bodies were the main contributors to the decline in carbon storage. (4) From 2030 to 2060, the high-value areas of carbon storage in Xinjiang were primarily distributed in the Altai Mountains, Tianshan Mountains, and the northern edge of the Tarim Basin. Under the EPS, carbon storage was higher than that under the natural development and rapid development scenarios. The research findings are expected to contribute to guiding adjustments in land use patterns and optimizing the management of carbon storage in the Xinjiang region, significantly facilitating the achievement of regional “dual carbon” goals.

Key words: carbon storage, land use change, GeoSOS-FLUS model, InVEST model, Xinjiang

NIU Feifei, GUO Jing, LUO Jie, GOU Xueping, LIU Xuewei, ZHANG Renping. Simulation of land use change and prediction of carbon storage in Xinjiang based on GeoSOS-FLUS and InVEST models[J].Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(12): 2169-2182.

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References 43

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数据类型	数据名称	格式	分辨率	数据来源
LUCC	土地利用数据	栅格	1 km	地球资源数据云平台（www.gis5g.com）
地形	高程	栅格	90 m	http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org
	坡度	栅格	90 m
	坡向	栅格	90 m
植被	植被覆盖率	栅格	1 km，300 m	https://land.copernicus.eu/en
气象数据	年均气温	栅格	1 km	https://data.tpdc.ac.cn
气象数据	年均降水	栅格	1 km	https://data.tpdc.ac.cn
社会经济数据	年GDP	栅格	1 km	https://www.resdc.cn
社会经济数据	人口密度	栅格	1 km	https://www.geodata.cn
区位因素数据	距河流、铁路、道路、城镇、市中心、高速的距离	栅格	30 m	https://www.openstreetmap.org

土地利用类型	自然发展情景（DAU）								生态优先情景（EPS）								快速发展情景（RDS）
土地利用类型	a	b	c	d	e	f	g	h	a	b	c	d	e	f	g	h	a	b	c	d	e	f	g	h
a	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0
b	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0
c	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	0
d	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0
e	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0
f	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	0
g	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0
h	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

土地利用类型	地上生物碳密度	地下生物碳密度	土壤碳密度	死亡有机物碳密度
耕地	2.90	3.44	76.6	1.24
林地1	30.89	9.12	107.82	2.48
林地2	10.76	2.05	67.73	0.98
草地1	1.49	4.29	75.54	0.22
草地2	0.47	1.42	24.69	0.05
水域	0.64	0.45	0.00	0.00
建设用地	2.26	1.45	0.00	0.00
未利用地	0.45	0.87	38.55	0.00

Simulation of land use change and prediction of carbon storage in Xinjiang based on GeoSOS-FLUS and InVEST models

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