塔里木河流域农业耗水特征及其影响因素分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.757

Abstract

Abstract:

Efficient agricultural water consumption is key to achieving sustainable agricultural development and managing agricultural water resources. This study investigated agricultural water consumption in the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China from 2000 to 2020. Methods, such as imbalance index determination, information entropy theory, and principal component analysis, were used to evaluate structural characteristics, spatiotemporal evolution patterns, and factors influencing agricultural water consumption. The findings revealed that (1) In terms of time, agricultural water consumption in the Tarim River Basin first increased and then decreased, rising from 107.3×10⁸ m³ to 187.8×10⁸ m³, reaching its peak at 203×10⁸ m³ in 2016. Spatially, water consumption was higher in the west and lower in the east, with a higher consumption in the north and lower in the south of the Tarim River Basin. (2) Agricultural water consumption and water resources exhibited low compatibility in the Tarim River Basin. Only the Keriya River Basin and Dina River Basin had compatible water resources and consumption, whereas the rest of the basin faced a mismatch. (3) The information entropy of crop water consumption in the Tarim River Basin increased from 2000 to 2009, decreased from 2010 to 2014, reaching the lowest entropy in the study period in 2014, and then increased again from 2015 to 2020. (4) The primary drivers for changes in agricultural water consumption in the Tarim River Basin were agricultural production conditions and economic factors. This study provides a scientific reference for adjusting the planting structure and managing water resources in the Tarim River Basin.

Key words: agricultural water consumption, spatiotemporal changes, agricultural water resource management, Tarim River Basin

LIU Wenjun, HU Keke, SU Litan, JIN Lei. Characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural water consumption in the Tarim River Basin[J].Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(11): 1951-1960.

Figures/Tables 14

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不平衡指数	适配等级	不平衡指数	适配等级
<-0.06	重-Ⅱ型错配	0.02~0.04	轻-Ⅰ型错配
-0.06~-0.04	中-Ⅱ型错配	0.04~0.06	中-Ⅰ型错配
-0.04~-0.02	轻-Ⅱ型错配	>0.06	重-Ⅰ型错配
-0.02~0.02	适配

年份	阿克苏河流域	渭干河流域	和田河流域	克里雅河流域	开孔河流域	迪那河流域	车尔臣河流域	叶尔羌河流域	喀什噶尔河流域
2000	-0.0212	-0.0438	0.0470	0.0150	0.0508	-0.0004	0.0736	-0.0790	-0.0473
2005	-0.0244	-0.0554	0.0370	0.0100	0.0262	-0.0043	0.0628	-0.0450	-0.0192
2010	-0.0329	-0.0502	0.0755	0.0260	0.0182	-0.0056	0.0328	-0.0663	-0.0305
2015	-0.0113	-0.0766	0.0661	0.0252	0.0433	-0.0071	0.0690	-0.0730	-0.0436
2020	-0.0337	-0.0876	0.0713	0.0253	0.0416	-0.0112	0.0769	-0.0598	-0.0376
平均值	-0.0285	-0.0619	0.0549	0.0181	0.0368	-0.0065	0.0664	-0.0648	-0.0280

年份	信息熵	年份	信息熵
2000	1.6686	2011	1.7885
2001	1.6354	2012	1.7938
2002	1.7969	2013	1.7860
2003	1.7498	2014	1.5502
2004	1.7288	2015	1.6332
2005	1.7227	2016	1.7149
2006	1.6932	2017	1.6210
2007	1.7293	2018	1.6122
2008	1.7833	2019	1.6344
2009	1.8184	2020	1.6582
2010	1.8056

流域	2000年	2009年	2014年	2020年
阿克苏河流域	1.6992	1.6268	1.3658	1.5721
渭干河流域	1.5888	1.4518	1.2497	1.3037
和田河流域	1.5448	1.6324	1.6226	1.5701
克里雅河流域	1.6452	1.8674	1.8283	1.6134
开孔河流域	1.8354	1.6057	1.2084	1.4987
迪那河流域	1.3929	1.2395	0.7582	0.9304
车尔臣河流域	1.5343	1.5580	1.4158	1.5218
叶尔羌河流域	1.4463	1.8310	1.6205	1.6746
喀什噶尔河流域	1.6227	1.8168	1.4761	1.5502

主成分	特征值	贡献率/%	累计贡献率/%
1	5.5105	68.88	68.88
2	1.0776	13.47	82.35
3	0.8955	11.19	93.55
4	0.4051	5.06	98.61
5	0.0764	0.96	99.56
6	0.0186	0.23	99.80
7	0.0127	0.16	99.95
8	0.0036	0.05	100.00

Characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural water consumption in the Tarim River Basin

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指标	主成分1	主成分2	主成分3	主成分4
灌溉面积	0.4216	-0.0252	0.0179	0.0066
播种面积	0.4214	-0.0302	0.0568	-0.0997
地膜覆盖面积	0.4107	-0.0383	0.0786	-0.3242
农业人口	0.3859	0.0264	-0.0131	-0.5885
农业机械拥有量	0.3881	0.0225	0.0163	0.6291
农业产值	0.4110	0.0052	0.0480	0.3775
气温	0.0455	-0.7257	-0.6856	0.0150
降水量	0.0745	0.6849	-0.7193	-0.0073

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