生态安全视角下乌鲁木齐市土地利用冲突时空格局演变分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2023.263

Abstract

Abstract:

It is crucial to identify regional land use conflicts from the perspective of ecological security and effectively manage the coordination between urban development and land use. This study develops a land use conflict measurement model within the theoretical analysis framework of land use conflict and the pressure-state-response model, incorporating ecosystem service value and ecological risk evaluation factors. The spatiotemporal evolution patterns of land use conflict in Urumqi City, Xinjiang, China, for 2000, 2010, and 2020 are analyzed. Furthermore, the future land use simulation model is employed to simulate and predict changes in land use conflict by 2030. The results indicate the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, more than 73% of Urumqi’s area was conflict-free or mildly conflicted. During this period, hotspots of land use conflicts expanded from the northern and southwestern areas of Urumqi City to mountainous woodlands in the northern and southern regions, as well as near alluvial fans on both sides of Dabancheng District’s salt lake. The cold spot areas were primarily concentrated in the central urban region and within the mountainous woodland areas in the eastern and southern parts. (2) Natural factors such as climate, topography, and geomorphology remain the predominant drivers of spatial variations in land use conflict intensity. (3) A positive spatial correlation exists between the value of ecosystem services and land use conflict, whereas a significant negative spatial correlation exists between ecological risk and land use conflict. (4) In 2030, despite the substantial increase in Urumqi’s land use zones with a high conflict rate, areas characterized by minimal or no conflicts continue to maintain their dominant position. This study provides a diagnostic index system and methodology for analyzing the Urumqi land use conflict, and serves as an example and offers scientific support for an in-depth understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and conflict mechanism of the Urumqi land use conflict.

Key words: land use conflict, ecosystem service value, ecological risk, FLUS model, Urumqi City

PENG Ya, WANG Juanjuan, WANG Shanshan, TIAN Liulan, LIU Jie, WU Zhaopeng. Spatiotemporal pattern evolution of land use conflict in Urumqi City from the perspective of ecological security[J].Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(1): 81-92.

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一级类型	二级类型	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地
供给服务	食物生产	12.50	3.23	1.47	11.76	0.00	0.15
供给服务	原料生产	5.88	7.65	2.06	3.38	0.00	0.44
调节服务	水资源供给	0.29	3.97	1.18	121.88	0.00	0.29
	气体调节	9.85	24.99	7.50	11.32	0.29	1.62
	气候调节	5.29	74.54	19.70	33.67	0.00	1.47
	净化环境	1.47	21.91	6.47	81.60	1.47	4.56
	水文调节	3.97	49.10	14.41	1503.13	0.44	3.09
支持服务	土壤保持	15.14	30.29	9.12	13.67	0.29	1.91
	维持养分循环	1.76	2.35	0.74	1.03	0.00	0.15
	生物多样性	1.91	27.64	8.23	37.49	0.29	1.76
文化服务	美学景观	0.88	12.06	3.68	27.79	0.15	0.74
合计		58.96	257.73	74.54	1846.72	2.94	16.17

年份	无冲突	轻度冲突	中度冲突	高度冲突	重度冲突
2000	0.84	0.75	0.80	0.76	0.79
2010	0.87	0.80	0.78	0.79	0.76
2020	0.85	0.79	0.89	0.82	0.76

年份	拟合模型	块金值（C₀）	基台值（C₀+C）	C₀/(C₀+C)	变程（A₀）	决定系数（R²）	残差（RSS）/10^-7
2000	指数	0.00107	0.00499	0.2144	18600	0.7970	6.5430
2010	高斯	0.00284	0.00672	0.4226	39000	0.9490	3.9990
2020	指数	0.00267	0.00546	0.4890	19900	0.9810	1.1400

Spatiotemporal pattern evolution of land use conflict in Urumqi City from the perspective of ecological security

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