Abstract:

Land use/cover change will interfere with the stable supply capacity of ecosystems, which in turn poses a threat to ecosystem services and sustainable development. Taking Urumqi City of Xinjiang, China, as the study area, this study simulates land use changes in Urumqi City under multiple scenarios in 2030 based on the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and combines the equivalent factor method and spatial autocorrelation analysis to estimate and project the ecosystem service value (ESV) and its trade-off synergy for 1990—2030 in Urumqi City. The results are as follows: (1) Land use in Urumqi City shows a trend of “two increases and four decreases” from 1990 to 2020. In the integrated development scenario, the area of built-up land increases, while the area of ecological land is also on the rise; in the key development scenario, the expansion of urban built-up land is the most drastic, and the area of arable land is severely degraded. (2) From 1990 to 2020, the trend of ESV in Urumqi City has a “V” shape. In 2030, ESV increases under the ecological protection scenario and the comprehensive development scenario and decreases under the inertia development scenario and the key development scenario. (3) Under the four development scenarios in 2030, the synergistic relationships among various ecosystem services in Urumqi City are primarily synergistic, with “high-high” and “low-low” synergistic aggregation areas coinciding highly with the distribution of high and low ESV values, and trade-off relationships sporadically distributed in local areas. These findings may serve as a basis for distributing ESVs in Urumqi City and can also provide scientific reference for the spatial planning of Urumqi City and the construction of ecological security patterns.

Key words: ecosystem service value, PLUS model, multi-scenario simulation, trade-off synergy, Urumqi City