基于PLUS模型的乌鲁木齐市生态服务价值权衡协同探究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.261

Abstract

Abstract:

Land use/cover change will interfere with the stable supply capacity of ecosystems, which in turn poses a threat to ecosystem services and sustainable development. Taking Urumqi City of Xinjiang, China, as the study area, this study simulates land use changes in Urumqi City under multiple scenarios in 2030 based on the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and combines the equivalent factor method and spatial autocorrelation analysis to estimate and project the ecosystem service value (ESV) and its trade-off synergy for 1990—2030 in Urumqi City. The results are as follows: (1) Land use in Urumqi City shows a trend of “two increases and four decreases” from 1990 to 2020. In the integrated development scenario, the area of built-up land increases, while the area of ecological land is also on the rise; in the key development scenario, the expansion of urban built-up land is the most drastic, and the area of arable land is severely degraded. (2) From 1990 to 2020, the trend of ESV in Urumqi City has a “V” shape. In 2030, ESV increases under the ecological protection scenario and the comprehensive development scenario and decreases under the inertia development scenario and the key development scenario. (3) Under the four development scenarios in 2030, the synergistic relationships among various ecosystem services in Urumqi City are primarily synergistic, with “high-high” and “low-low” synergistic aggregation areas coinciding highly with the distribution of high and low ESV values, and trade-off relationships sporadically distributed in local areas. These findings may serve as a basis for distributing ESVs in Urumqi City and can also provide scientific reference for the spatial planning of Urumqi City and the construction of ecological security patterns.

Key words: ecosystem service value, PLUS model, multi-scenario simulation, trade-off synergy, Urumqi City

SUI Lu, PU Chunling, LIU Zhiyou, BAI Pengfei, LIU Tao. Trade-off synergy of ecosystem service value in Urumqi City based on PLUS model[J].Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(1): 159-168.

Figures/Tables 11

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References 25

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数据类型	数据名称	初始数据来源
基础数据	行政边界、土地利用数据	中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心（http://www.resdc.cn）
驱动因子	高程、坡度	地理空间数据云（http://www.gscloud.cn）
	年平均气温、年平均降水量、人口密度、国内生产总值（GDP）	中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心（http://www.resdc.cn）
	到水域距离、到道路距离	地理国情监测平台（http://www.dsac.cn/）
价值因子	年平均粮食产量	新疆维吾尔自治区统计局（xinjiang.gov.cn）
	年平均粮食价格	《全国农产品成本收益资料汇编》^[14]

情景模式	发展设定
惯性发展情景（Ⅰ）	此情景借助耦合模型中的Markov链预测各地类未来发展规模，作为PLUS模型中的栅格需求参数，是其他模拟情景设置的基础。
生态保护情景（Ⅱ）	此情景增加生态保护设定，控制生态用地向生产、生活用地的转化，提高其他用地向林地、草地、水域转化概率，生态景观整体向优发展。
综合开发情景（Ⅲ）	此情景遵循“在保护中开发，在开发中保护”的原则，提升城镇建设用地在全域比重的同时，尽量减少城镇扩张对生态系统服务带来的不良影响，努力营造人地和谐共生的发展局面。
重点开发情景（Ⅳ）	此情景为在快速城市化背景下，当生态用地与生产、生活用地需求发生冲突时，优先满足城市居民生产经营、居住与休闲用地需求，实现经济效益最大化。

一级类型	二级类型	土地利用类型
一级类型	二级类型	耕地	林地	草地	水域	未利用地
供给服务	食物生产	2707.65	893.52	1164.29	1435.05	54.15
	原材料生产	1055.98	8068.80	974.75	947.68	108.31
调节服务	气体调节	1949.51	11697.05	4061.48	1380.90	162.46
	气候调节	2626.42	11020.14	4223.93	5577.76	351.99
	水源涵养	2084.89	11074.29	4115.63	50822.59	189.54
	废物处理	3763.63	4657.16	3574.10	40208.60	703.99
支持服务	土壤保持	3980.25	10884.75	6065.14	1110.14	460.30
	维持生物多样性	2761.80	12211.50	5063.31	9287.24	1083.06
文化服务	美学景观	460.30	5631.91	2355.66	12021.97	649.84
合计		21390.43	76139.12	31598.29	122791.93	3763.64

	年份	情景模式	土地利用类型
	年份	情景模式	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地
面积/km²	1990		1353.52	646.09	7980.64	364.22	289.87	3149.63
	2000		1351.59	637.74	7953.80	374.09	349.05	3117.70
	2010		1243.65	445.00	7604.93	229.43	674.10	3586.84
	2020		1120.43	407.76	7288.35	223.87	882.57	3856.69
	2030	Ⅰ	1069.29	527.38	6772.19	210.06	1036.43	4164.32
	2030	Ⅱ	985.03	419.03	7779.47	254.78	751.71	3589.66
面积变化幅度/%	2030	Ⅲ	1040.53	436.30	7652.77	235.07	1147.34	3267.67
	2030	Ⅳ	911.89	402.86	6584.45	201.49	1323.86	4355.14
	2020—2030	Ⅰ	-0.46	2.93	-0.71	-0.62	1.74	0.80
	2020—2030	Ⅱ	-1.21	0.28	0.67	1.38	-1.48	-0.69
	2020—2030	Ⅲ	-0.71	0.70	0.50	0.50	3.00	-1.53
	2020—2030	Ⅳ	-1.86	-0.12	-0.97	-1.00	5.00	1.29

年份	情景模式	生态系统服务类型
年份	情景模式	供给服务	调节服务	支持服务	文化服务	合计
1990		29.34	206.57	121.51	29.49	386.91
2000		29.21	206.72	121.06	29.47	386.46
2010		26.07	179.10	111.21	26.08	342.46
2020		24.62	171.16	106.36	25.18	327.32
2030	Ⅰ	24.41	166.06	103.36	24.65	318.48
2030	Ⅱ	25.29	180.68	111.08	26.53	343.58
2030	Ⅲ	25.29	177.51	109.74	25.91	338.45
2030	Ⅳ	22.31	156.06	97.54	23.45	299.36

Trade-off synergy of ecosystem service value in Urumqi City based on PLUS model

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生态系统服务	Pearson系数				Moran’s I
生态系统服务	情景Ⅰ	情景Ⅱ	情景Ⅲ	情景Ⅳ	情景Ⅰ	情景Ⅱ	情景Ⅲ	情景Ⅳ
供给-调节	0.683	0.602	0.635	0.703	0.573	0.473	0.484	0.577
供给-支持	0.878	0.859	0.858	0.889	0.752	0.703	0.690	0.756
供给-文化	0.635	0.555	0.585	0.650	0.531	0.430	0.445	0.532
调节-支持	0.683	0.679	0.713	0.771	0.644	0.541	0.552	0.642
调节-文化	0.760	0.976	0.972	0.974	0.688	0.665	0.662	0.673
支持-文化	0.973	0.703	0.740	0.783	0.651	0.555	0.571	0.646

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