气候变化和人类活动对毛乌素沙地NDVI变化的量化分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.029

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 气候变化和人类活动是驱动植被动态变化的两大关键影响因子。归一化植被指数（NDVI）是评估植被动态变化的有效指标，能够合理地评价生态系统变化及其可持续性。基于SPOT/VEGETATION NDVI时间序列数据、气象数据和地表覆盖数据，借助GIS空间分析、相关性分析及残差分析等方法，探讨了1998—2019年毛乌素沙地NDVI时空演变特征及其驱动机制，厘定了气候变化和人类活动两大驱动因素对毛乌素沙地NDVI变化的相对贡献率。结果表明：（1） 1998—2019年毛乌素沙地NDVI整体以0.0067·a^-1的速率增长，空间分布上表现为由西北向东南逐渐递增的分布趋势。但NDVI增长整体持续性不强，未来可能出现波动。（2）气候变化与人类活动共同驱动了毛乌素沙地NDVI的增长。其中，NDVI变化与降水呈显著正相关，而与气温的相关性则较弱。大型生态工程的实施与气候要素的耦合驱动了毛乌素沙地86.30%的植被改善，和已有生态建设工程成效研究结论相符。（3）归因分析结果表明，人类活动促进了毛乌素沙地83.20%的NDVI增长，而降水量驱动了毛乌素沙地73.14%的NDVI增长，降水量与人类活动的耦合作用对NDVI的影响更为显著。

关键词: 毛乌素沙地, 植被NDVI, 气候变化, 人类活动相对贡献率

Abstract:

Climate change and human activities are the primary factors influencing vegetation dynamics. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) serves as an effective indicator for assessing vegetation changes, enabling evaluation of ecosystem dynamics and sustainability. Using SPOT/VEGETATION NDVI time series data, meteorological data, and land cover data, this study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of NDVI in the Mu Us Sandy Land, China, from 1998 to 2019. Employing GIS spatial analysis, correlation analysis, and residual analysis, the study quantifies the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to NDVI variations. The findings reveal the following: (1) From 1998 to 2019, interannual NDVI in the Mu Us Sandy Land exhibited a significant upward trend, with a growth rate of 0.0067·a^-1. Spatially, NDVI displayed a gradual increase from northwest to southeast. However, the overall sustainability of NDVI growth was weak, indicating potential future fluctuations. (2) Both climate change and human activities jointly contributed to NDVI growth. NDVI changes were significantly positively correlated with precipitation, while correlations with temperature were weaker. Large-scale ecological projects and the interplay of climatic factors accounted for 86.30% of the observed vegetation improvement, aligning with existing studies on the impact of ecological projects. (3) Attribution analysis demonstrated that human activities contributed to 83.20% of NDVI growth, while precipitation accounted for 73.14%. The coupling effect of precipitation and human activities had a more pronounced influence on NDVI.

Key words: Mu Us Sandy Land, vegetation NDVI, climatic change, human activities, relative contribution rate

常文静, 丛士翔, 王融融, 丁旭东, 余海龙, 黄菊莹. 气候变化和人类活动对毛乌素沙地NDVI变化的量化分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(1): 63-74.

CHANG Wenjing, CONG Shixiang, WANG Rongrong, DING Xudong, YU Hailong, HUANG Juying. Quantitative analysis of NDVI changes in Mu Us Sandy Land by climate change and human activities[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(1): 63-74.

图/表 17

图1

表1

气候变化与人类活动对毛乌素沙地植被NDVI驱动因素判定及贡献率计算方法"

$S N o b s$	驱动因素	驱动因素的划分标准		驱动因素的贡献率/%
$S N o b s$	驱动因素	$S N C C$	$S N H A$	气候变化	人类活动
>0	CC&HA	>0	>0	$S N C C S N o b s$	$S N H A S N o b s$
	CC	>0	<0	100	0
	HA	<0	>0	0	100
<0	CC&HA	<0	<0	$S N C C S N o b s$	$S N H A S N o b s$
	CC	<0	>0	100	0
	HA	>0	<0	0	100

表1

图2

图3

图4

表2

表3

图5

图6

图7

表4

图8

表5

图9

表6

图10

表7

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植被类型	NDVI变化的面积占比/%
植被类型	极显著增加	显著增加	不显著增加	极显著减少	显著减少	不显著减少
栽培植被	16.38	0.94	0.96	0.16	0.02	0.13
阔叶林	0.06	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
灌丛	1.19	0.03	0.06	0.01	0.01	0.03
荒漠	2.10	0.58	2.80	0.05	0.02	0.87
草原	43.88	5.31	16.37	0.26	0.07	2.69
草丛	0.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
草甸	3.20	0.38	0.57	0.02	0.01	0.12
沼泽	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
其他	0.34	0.07	0.12	0.01	0.01	0.04

NDVI变化幅度（E）	Hurst指数（H）	NDVI变化	像元数/个	面积占比/%
E>0	H>0.5	持续改善	24209	30.09
E>0	H<0.5	反持续改善	51472	63.99
E<0	H>0.5	持续退化	949	1.18
E<0	H<0.5	反持续退化	3813	4.74

偏相关系数	降水		气温
偏相关系数	像元数/个	面积占比/%	像元数/个	面积占比/%
显著正相关	58836	73.14	577	0.72
不显著正相关	19888	24.72	32106	39.91
显著负相关	494	0.61	6187	7.69
不显著负相关	1225	1.52	41573	51.68

趋势值	对NDVI 的影响	气候变化		人类活动
趋势值	对NDVI 的影响	像元数/个	面积占比/%	像元数/个	面积占比/%
<-0.0005	抑制	452	0.56	7621	9.53
-0.0005~0.0005	基本无影响	5084	6.32	5818	7.27
>0.0005	促进	74907	93.12	66561	83.20

NDVI趋势	驱动力	像元数/个	面积占比/%
>0	CC&HA	49895	86.30
	CC	5792	10.02
	HA	467	0.81
<0	CC&HA	180	0.31
	CC	59	0.10
	HA	1425	2.46