基于贺兰山青海云杉（Picea crassifolia）树轮对过去202 a最低气温的重建

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.400

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在全球变暖的影响下，全球水文气候发生深刻变化，而季风与非季风过渡带地区气候复杂多样，所以摸清该地区过去长期气候变化规律是亟待解决的问题。利用36棵青海云杉（Picea crassifolia）的66个树轮样芯建立了季风与非季风过渡带典型地区（中国贺兰山地区）1798—2016年（219 a）的青海云杉树轮宽度年表，并且通过皮尔逊相关法分析了树轮宽度年表与该地气候因子的相关性。结果表明：（1）青海云杉径向生长与该地的年平均最低温（R²=0.638，P<0.001）关系密切，利用线性回归方程重建贺兰山1815—2016年年平均最低温序列，重建方程的缩减误差和有效系数分别为0.808、0.482。（2）重建的年平均最低温序列在19世纪整体气温偏低，与学术界公认的“小冰期”一致，到19世纪后期，气温逐渐回升，并且气温序列出现了显著的暖期和极暖年，气温在19世纪50和90年代以及20世纪90年代发生3次气温突变。（3） Morlet小波分析显示了6 a、21 a和46~56 a的周期性分布特征。南方涛动、太平洋十年涛动和大西洋多年代际涛动是这种周期性变化的驱动因素。（4）大尺度空间相关分析表明重建的气温序列对大尺度区域的气温变化具有较好的空间表征，如内蒙古大部和宁夏大部。进而重建的季风与非季风过渡带典型地区年平均最低气温序列揭示了该地的气候变化特征，为全球气候变化研究提供参考。

关键词: 树轮宽度年表, 最低气温重建, 气候变化, 季风与非季风过渡带, 贺兰山

Abstract:

Under the influence of global warming, profound changes are occurring in the global hydroclimatic system. Understanding the long-term climate patterns in monsoon and nonmonsoon transitional zones is crucial owing to their complex and diverse climates. Utilizing 66 tree-ring cores from 36 Picea crassifolia trees, a dendrochronological chronology from 1798 to 2016 (219 years) was established for a typical area in the transitional zone (Helan Mountains region, northwest China). The Pearson correlation method was used to analyze the relationship between tree-ring widths and local climatic factors. The results show that: (1) The radial growth of Picea crassifolia closely correlates with the area’s annual average minimum temperature (R²=0.638, P<0.001). A linear regression equation was used to reconstruct the annual average minimum temperature series for Helan Mountains from 1815 to 2016, with a reduction error and coefficient of efficiency of 0.808 and 0.482, respectively. (2) The reconstructed series generally indicates lower temperatures in the 19th century, consistent with the globally recognized “Little Ice Age”. From the late 19th century, temperatures gradually increased, showing significant warm periods and extremely warm years, with three abrupt temperature shifts in the 1850s, 1890s, and 1990s. (3) Morlet wavelet analysis shows the periodic distribution characteristics of 6 a, 21 a and 46-56 a. Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation are the driving factors behind these periodic changes. (4) Large-scale spatial correlation analysis indicates that the reconstructed temperature series represents the temperature variations well in large regions like most of Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. The reconstructed annual average minimum temperature series for this typical monsoon and nonmonsoon transitional zone reveals its climatic characteristics, providing a reference for global climate change research.

Key words: dendrochronological chronology, minimum temperature reconstruction, climate change, monsoon and non-monsoon transition zone, Helan Mountains

张晶, 马龙, 刘廷玺, 孙柏林, 乔子戌. 基于贺兰山青海云杉（Picea crassifolia）树轮对过去202 a最低气温的重建[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(6): 909-921.

ZHANG Jing, MA Long, LIU Tingxi, SUN Bolin, QIAO Zixu. Reconstruction of the minimum temperature over the past 202 years based on tree rings of Picea crassifolia in the Helan Mountains[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(6): 909-921.

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统计指标	统计值
平均数	0.999
中位数	0.990
标准差	0.304
峰度	1.490
偏度	0.634
斜率	0.000
一阶自相关系数	0.782
各序列与主序列间平均相关系数	0.524
树间平均相关系数	0.454
信噪比	18.210
样本总体代表性	0.948
平均敏感度	0.452
子样本系数>0.85的第一年	1815

校准期				检验期
年份	r	R²	t	年份	r	R²	RE	CE	ST	ST₁	t
1956—2016	0.799	0.638	7.465
1956—1986	0.707	0.565	5.420	1987—2016	0.883	0.780	0.345	0.760	23+/7-	19+/10-	5.377
1987—2016	0.839	0.780	4.543	1956—1986	0.752	0.565	0.941	0.494	22+/9-	22+/8-	5.758

极冷年				极暖年
年份	气温/℃	年份	气温/℃	年份	气温/℃
1817	-1.104	1831	-0.944	1861	4.656
1821	-0.966	1834	-1.205	1865	4.708
1826	-1.692	1839	-1.669	2007	4.769
1827	-1.038	1840	-1.502	2014	4.944
1828	-1.647	1841	-0.832	2015	4.837
1829	-2.241	1842	-0.526	2016	4.714
1830	-0.922	-	-	-	-