区分由气候变化和人类活动引起的黄河流域水储量变化的不同组分

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.190

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

厘清流域气候变化和人类活动如何影响水储量变化有利于水资源精准管理和保护。以黄河流域为研究区，基于统计模型从降水量和气温中重建0.25°格网尺度气候变化驱动的水储量异常（Climate-driven water storage anomalies，CWSA）信息，并从GRACE重力卫星提供的陆地总水储量异常（Terrestrial water storage anomalies，TWSA）中分离出人类活动驱动的水储量异常（Human-driven water storage anomalies，HWSA）信息。结果表明：（1）黄河流域CWSA整体呈显著上升趋势，流域平均上升速率为3.6 mm·a^-1，其变化主要由流域内增加的降水量引起。（2）黄河流域HWSA整体呈显著下降趋势，流域平均下降速率为8.9 mm·a^-1，其中下降速率较大的区域集中在中下游地区，造成其下降的主要因素可能是人类活动中的地下水过度抽采。（3） TWSA分别与CWSA和HWSA的相关性分析表明黄河上游源区的TWSA主要受CWSA影响，而在广大中下游地区则受HWSA影响更大。研究通过量化的方式分离了气候变化和人类活动引起的流域水储量变化量，并区分了二者对黄河流域水储量变化的影响。

关键词: 气候变化, 人类活动, 水储量变化重建, 水储量变化分离

Abstract:

Clarifying the impacts of climate change and human activities on water storage changes in a basin is essential for effective water resource management and protection. Using a statistical model, we reconstructed climate-driven water storage anomalies (CWSA) from precipitation and temperature data at a 0.25° grid scale in the Yellow River Basin, China and isolated human-driven water storage anomalies (HWSA) from terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA) derived from GRACE satellite data. The results reveal the following trends: (1) CWSA in the Yellow River Basin shows a significant upward trend, with an average increase of 3.6 mm·a^-1, mainly due to increased rainfall. (2) HWSA in the basin shows a significant downward trend, with an average decrease of 8.9 mm·a^-1, with higher decreases in the middle and lower reaches, likely driven by excessive groundwater extraction. (3) Correlation analysis indicates that TWSA in the upper Yellow River is primarily influenced by CWSA, while in the middle and lower reaches, it is mainly influenced by HWSA. This study separately quantifies the effects of climate change and human activities on water storage changes in the Yellow River Basin.

Key words: climate change, anthropogenic activities, water storage change reconstruction, water storage change separation

姚笛, 张子文, 韩卫卫. 区分由气候变化和人类活动引起的黄河流域水储量变化的不同组分[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(2): 190-201.

YAO Di, ZHANG Ziwen, HAN Weiwei. Distinguishing climate- and human-driven water storage anomalies in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(2): 190-201.

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