2000—2020年中亚大型湖泊湖冰物候时空变化

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2023.200

干旱区地理 ›› 2024, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (4): 561-575.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2023.200

2000—2020年中亚大型湖泊湖冰物候时空变化

赵明杰¹^,²(), 王宁练¹^,²^,³(), 石晨烈¹^,², 侯靖琪¹^,²

1.陕西省地表系统与环境承载力重点实验室，陕西西安 710127
2.西北大学城市与环境学院地表系统与灾害研究院，陕西西安 710127
3.中国科学院青藏高原研究所青藏高原地球系统与资源环境全国重点实验室，北京 100101

收稿日期:2023-05-05 修回日期:2023-06-16 出版日期:2024-04-25 发布日期:2024-05-17
通讯作者: 王宁练（1966-），男，博士，教授，主要从事冰冻圈和全球变化研究. E-mail: nlwang@nwu.edu.cn
作者简介:赵明杰（1999-），男，硕士研究生，主要从事湖冰物候研究. E-mail: 17600776722@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(42130516);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK020102)

Temporal and spatial variations of lake ice phenology in large lakes of Central Asia from 2000 to 2020

ZHAO Mingjie¹^,²(), WANG Ninglian¹^,²^,³(), SHI Chenlie¹^,², HOU Jingqi¹^,²

1. Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, Northwest University, Xi’an 710127, Shaanxi, China
2. Institute of Earth Surface System and Hazards, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi’an 710127, Shaanxi, China
3. State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Received:2023-05-05 Revised:2023-06-16 Published:2024-04-25 Online:2024-05-17

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

湖冰物候变化特征是区域气候变化的敏感指示器之一。近几十年来，由于全球变暖和人为活动的影响，中亚地区的气候发生了显著变化，准确监测湖冰物候对于了解中亚地区气候变化具有重要的科学意义。通过对中亚地区7个大型湖泊（卡拉库尔湖、巴尔喀什湖、咸海、阿拉湖、斋桑泊、查蒂尔-科尔湖以及马卡科尔湖，面积>100 km²） 2000—2020年的长期地表反射率数据、气象数据以及湖泊资料的综合分析，利用GIS相关技术探讨其湖冰物候特征及其影响因素。结果表明：（1）中亚地区的湖泊在9月中旬至11月上旬期间开始结冰，11月底到12月底会完全封冻，湖泊平均冻结时间为35 d；湖冰在3月底至5月中开始消融，4月上至6月上会完全消融，湖泊平均消融时间为18 d。（2） 2000—2020年中亚7个湖泊中有5个湖泊开始冻结日期呈现延后的趋势，平均延后速率为4.86 d·(10a)^-1，巴尔喀什湖开始冻结日期呈现提前趋势，提前率为1.44 d·(10a)^-1。完全消融日期呈现提前的趋势,平均提前率为2.90 d·(10a)^-1。7个湖泊的平均湖冰存在期为171 d，其中有4个湖泊湖冰存在期呈缩短趋势，完全冻结期呈现整体缩短趋势，其中巴尔喀什湖缩短最明显,缩短速率为9.02 d·(10 a)^-1。（3）中亚7个湖泊湖冰的冻结-消融空间模式主要分为两类：湖水从两岸向湖心逐渐冻结，消融时从湖岸到对岸；湖水自湖岸冻结至对岸，越先冻结的湖区越先消融。（4）中亚地区湖泊湖冰物候变化受到湖泊本身（海拔和面积）和气候（气温和降水量）等多个因素的影响，气温是影响湖冰物候的关键因素，气温越高，湖冰存在期越短；面积主要影响湖泊的冻结日期，面积越大，湖泊的湖冰存在期越短；湖冰物候也表现出一定的海拔依赖性，随着海拔的升高，湖泊的湖冰存在期越长。

关键词: 湖冰物候, 气候变化, 中亚, MODIS

Abstract:

The phenology of lake ice is a sensitive indicator of regional climate change. Through comprehensive analysis of long-term surface reflectance data, meteorological data, and lake information for seven large lakes (Karakul Lake, Balkhash Lake, Aral Sea, Alakol Lake, Zaysan Lake, Chatir Kol Lake, and Markakol Lake) with an area greater than 100 km² in Central Asia from 2000 to 2020, GIS-related technologies were used to explore the characteristics of lake ice phenology and its influencing factors. The results are as follows: (1) Lakes in Central Asia began to freeze from mid-September to early November and completely froze from late November to late December, with an average freezing time of 35 days; lake ice began to melt from late March to mid-May and would completely melt from early April to early June, with an average melting time of 18 days. (2) From 2000 to 2020, the start dates of ice formation in five of the seven lakes in Central Asia exhibited a delayed trend, with an average delay rate of 4.86 days per decade, whereas the start date of Balkhash Lake exhibited an advancing trend, with an advancing rate of 1.44 days per decade. The analysis suggests that this may be due to a decrease in the annual average temperature in the winter half of the year. The complete melting dates showed an advancing trend, with an average advancement rate of 2.90 days per decade. The average ice-covered period for the seven lakes was 171 days, with four of the lakes exhibiting a trend of shortening of the ice-covered period. The complete freezing period shows an overall trend of shortening, with Balkhash Lake exhibiting the most significant reduction, with a rate of 9.02 days per decade. (3) The spatial pattern of the formation and melting of lake ice in the seven lakes in Central Asia can be mainly divided into two categories: the lake water gradually freezes from both sides to the center and melts from the lake shore to the opposite side, or the lake water freezes from the shore to the opposite side and the earlier freezing, lake area melts the sooner. (4) The lake ice phenology changes in Central Asia are influenced by multiple factors such as lake characteristics (altitude and area) and climate (temperature and precipitation). Temperature is the key factor affecting lake ice phenology, and the higher the temperature, the shorter the ice-covered period. The area primarily affects the freezing date of the lake, and the larger the area, the shorter the ice-covered period. As the altitude increases, the ice-covered period of the lake extends.

Key words: lake ice phenology, climate change, Central Asia, MODIS

赵明杰, 王宁练, 石晨烈, 侯靖琪. 2000—2020年中亚大型湖泊湖冰物候时空变化[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(4): 561-575.

ZHAO Mingjie, WANG Ninglian, SHI Chenlie, HOU Jingqi. Temporal and spatial variations of lake ice phenology in large lakes of Central Asia from 2000 to 2020[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(4): 561-575.

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湖泊名称	地理位置	面积/km²	年份	海拔/m	湖泊类型
卡拉库尔湖	39°02′24″N，73°25′12″E	380	2015	3914	咸水湖
巴尔喀什湖	46°10′27″N，74°20′25″E	16996	2021	342	东为咸西为淡
查蒂尔-科尔湖	40°37′25″N，75°18′20″E	181	2020	3530	咸水湖
马卡科尔湖	48°45′23″N，85°45′29″E	455	2019	1445	咸水湖
阿拉湖	46°10′17″N，81°35′15″E	2650	2016	347	咸水湖
斋桑泊	48°00′07″N，84°00′05″E	1810	2021	388	淡水湖
咸海	45°53′25″N，60°23′21″E	3300	2008	39	咸水湖

陆地卫星	影像日期（年-月-日）	湖泊名称	陆地卫星	影像日期（年-月-日）	湖泊名称
Landsat7	2016-11-17	卡拉库尔湖	Landsat8	2018-12-09	马卡科尔湖
Landsat7	2016-12-03	巴尔喀什湖	Landsat8	2018-12-25	查蒂尔-科尔湖
Landsat7	2017-01-10	查蒂尔-科尔湖	Landsat8	2019-05-02	咸海
Landsat7	2017-05-12	马卡科尔湖	Landsat8	2019-05-18	斋桑泊
Landsat7	2017-05-28	斋桑泊	Landsat8	2019-11-26	巴尔喀什湖
Landsat7	2017-11-20	咸海	Landsat8	2019-12-12	阿拉湖
Landsat7	2017-12-06	阿拉湖	Landsat8	2019-12-28	卡拉库尔湖
Landsat7	2017-12-22	卡拉库尔湖	Landsat8	2020-01-29	斋桑泊
Landsat8	2018-01-07	巴尔喀什湖	Landsat8	2020-05-04	咸海
Landsat8	2018-05-15	阿拉湖	Landsat8	2020-05-20	卡拉库尔湖

湖泊名称	开始冻结	完全冻结	开始消融	完全消融	冻结期	消融期	完全冻结期	湖冰存在期
巴尔喀什湖	-1.44	7.01^**	-2.01	-0.58	8.33^**	1.44	-9.02	0.87^*
查蒂尔-科尔湖	18.00^***	-0.40	2.40	-1.20	-19.00^***	-5.00	4.10^***	-19.20
马卡科尔湖	0.70	0.40	-4.90	-5.20^*	-0.40	-0.30	-5.30^*	-5.90^*
阿拉湖	3.00	6.00^**	-0.90	-5.70^**	3.00	-4.70^**	-7.00^**	-8.70^*
卡拉库尔湖	-0.30	6.80^***	-1.50	0.70	7.00^**	2.20	-8.30	1.00^***
咸海	1.70	-	-	-1.50	-	-	-	-3.20
斋桑泊	1.00	0.90	-4.40^*	-4.00^*	-0.10	-0.40	-4.60^*	-5.00

作者	研究区域	研究数据	数据分辨率	阈值范围/%	时间跨度	优点	缺点
Hou等^[54]	北半球中纬度地区	MODIS地表温度产品	1 d；1 km	20 80	2002—2020年	一天可以使用四幅影像进行湖冰属性的提取	没有进行动态阈值设定，提取精度较差
本文	中亚五国	MODIS地表反射率产品	1 d；250 m	10 90	2000—2020年	数据空间分辨更高，湖冰属性提取精度更高	采用动态阈值提取湖冰信息，耗时长

2000—2020年中亚大型湖泊湖冰物候时空变化

Temporal and spatial variations of lake ice phenology in large lakes of Central Asia from 2000 to 2020

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湖泊名称	开始冻结	完全冻结	开始消融	完全消融	冻结期	消融期	湖冰存在期	完全冻结期
巴尔喀什湖	333	360	453	471	29	19	140	94
查蒂尔-科尔湖	283	330	499	518	49	20	237	170
马卡科尔湖	324	336	498	505	13	8	182	163
阿拉湖	261	334	450	482	75	33	223	117
卡拉库尔湖	315	359	493	516	45	23	202	136
咸海	336	-	365	463	-	-	127	-
斋桑泊	326	335	471	479	10	8	153	137
平均值	311	342	477	491	35	18	171	126