近70 a泾河流域径流变化及其驱动因素研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.212

干旱区地理 ›› 2022, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (1): 17-26.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.212

近70 a泾河流域径流变化及其驱动因素研究

刘宇^1,^2,^3,⁴(),管子隆^2,^3,⁴,田济扬¹(),刘荣华¹,关荣浩⁵

1.中国水利水电科学研究院水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心,北京 100038
2.中国电建集团西北勘测设计研究院有限公司,陕西西安 710054
3.长安大学水利与环境学院,陕西西安 710054
4.长安大学旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室,陕西西安 710054
5.西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌 712100

收稿日期:2021-05-07 修回日期:2021-07-01 出版日期:2022-01-25 发布日期:2022-01-21
通讯作者: 田济扬
作者简介:刘宇（1996-）,男,硕士研究生,主要从事水文学及水资源方向研究. E-mail: liuyu961030@163.com
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1508105);国家重点研发计划(2019YFC1510605);国家自然科学基金(51909274);国家自然科学基金(42001033);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2021JQ-237);中国水科院五大人才计划(JZ0199A022021)

Runoff change and its driving factors in Jinghe River Basin in recent 70 years

LIU Yu^1,^2,^3,⁴(),GUAN Zilong^2,^3,⁴,TIAN Jiyang¹(),LIU Ronghua¹,GUAN Ronghao⁵

1. Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction of Ministry of Water Resources, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
2. Power China Northwest Engineering Corporation Limited, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi, China
3. School of Water and Environment, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi, China
4. Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effects in Arid Region of Ministry of Education, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi, China
5. College of Water Resources and Architecture Engineering, Northwest A & F University, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, China

Received:2021-05-07 Revised:2021-07-01 Online:2022-01-25 Published:2022-01-21
Contact: Jiyang TIAN

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

定量评价流域径流变化特征并开展其归因识别研究是应对气候变化实现水资源合理开发利用的基础。本研究以泾河流域为研究区,采用M-K检验、滑动t检验、小波分析等方法分析流域近70 a的水文气象要素变化特征,并基于Budyko假设评价气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献率。结果表明：（1）泾河流域年径流深以0.41 mm·a^-1的速率减少,并在1996年发生显著减少突变,相较于突变前减少43.49%。（2）流域年径流深第一、第二和第三主周期分别为41 a、58 a和15 a特征时间尺度。（3）流域径流变化对汛期降水量和潜在蒸发量的变化均较为敏感,流域径流变化对降水量的敏感程度是潜在蒸发量的2.3~5.3倍。（4）人类活动是流域径流变化的主要影响因素,对年、汛期和非汛期径流变化的贡献率分别为90.43%、63.75%和94.08%。研究结果可为区域水资源综合管理与科学调配提供科学依据,并对黄土高原水土流失治理有一定的指导意义。

关键词: 径流变化, 人类活动, 气候变化, Budyko假设, 泾河流域

Abstract:

Quantitative evaluation and attribution identification of runoff change characteristics are the basis for the rational development and utilization of water resources in response to climate change. This study examines the hydrological and meteorological element change characteristics of the Jinghe River Basin in China over the last 70 years, using the M-K test, sliding t-test, wavelet analysis, and other methods to assess the contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff changes based on Budyko assumptions. The results show that: (1) The annual runoff depth of the Jinghe River Basin decreased at a rate of 0.41 mm·a^-1, and the abrupt change occurred in 1996, which decreased by 43.49% compared with that before the abrupt change. (2) The characteristic time scales for the first, second, and third main periods of annual runoff depth were 41 a, 58 a, and 15 a, respectively. (3) During flood season, runoff variation is sensitive to both precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, with precipitation sensitivity ranging from 2.3 to 5.3 times that of potential evapotranspiration. (4) Human activities are the main influencing factor of runoff variation in the basin, contributing 90.43%, 63.75%, and 94.08% to annual, flood season, and nonflood season runoff variation, respectively. The findings of the study can serve as a scientific foundation for the comprehensive management and scientific deployment of regional water resources and serve as a guide for the control of soil erosion in the Loess Plateau.

Key words: runoff changes, human activity, climate change, Budyko assumptions, Jinghe River Basin

刘宇,管子隆,田济扬,刘荣华,关荣浩. 近70 a泾河流域径流变化及其驱动因素研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(1): 17-26.

LIU Yu,GUAN Zilong,TIAN Jiyang,LIU Ronghua,GUAN Ronghao. Runoff change and its driving factors in Jinghe River Basin in recent 70 years[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(1): 17-26.

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水文气象要素	突变前（1951—1996年）		突变后（1997—2018年）
水文气象要素	均值	变差系数	均值	变差系数
年径流深/mm	41.00	0.38	23.17	0.36
降水量/mm	515.17	0.18	518.81	0.18
平均气温/℃	8.74	0.05	9.93	0.04
最高气温/℃	14.79	0.05	16.11	0.03
最低气温/℃	3.50	0.11	5.00	0.08
日照时长/h	6.48	0.07	6.51	0.05
相对湿度/%	63.85	0.06	61.56	0.04
风速/m·s^-1	2.24	0.10	2.09	0.03
潜在蒸发量/mm	945.81	0.05	968.95	0.03

时期	时段	P/mm	ET₀/mm	R/mm	α	β
基准期（1951—1996年）	年	516	946	41	0.448	-0.135
	汛期	330	383	25	0.647	-0.272
	非汛期	186	563	16	0.253	-0.050
变化期（1997—2018年）	年	519	969	23	0.439	-0.130
	汛期	331	375	13	0.656	-0.281
	非汛期	188	594	10	0.237	-0.045
总时期（1951—2018年）	年	517	953	35	0.445	-0.133
	汛期	330	380	21	0.650	-0.275
	非汛期	187	573	14	0.248	-0.048

时间	变化量/mm			影响量/mm				贡献率/%
时间	ΔR	ΔP	ΔET₀	R_p	R_e	R_c	R_h	C_p	C_e	C_c	C_h
年	-17.83	3.10	23.14	1.38	-3.08	-1.71	-16.13	-7.72	17.29	9.57	90.43
汛期	-11.35	0.84	-8.40	2.01	-6.36	-4.35	-7.65	-16.76	53.01	36.25	63.75
非汛期	-6.48	2.17	31.54	0.77	-1.12	-0.36	-5.64	-12.78	18.70	5.92	94.08

近70 a泾河流域径流变化及其驱动因素研究

Runoff change and its driving factors in Jinghe River Basin in recent 70 years

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