人类活动及气候变化影响下伊犁河谷生境质量预测研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2023.275

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

生境质量是衡量生态系统服务功能及其健康程度的重要指标，准确预测生境质量的演变对于推动区域生态环境的高质量发展至关重要。耦合系统动力学-斑块生成土地利用模拟（SD-PLUS）模型与生态系统服务和权衡的综合评估（InVEST）模型，预测了2035年不同气候情景下（SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5）伊犁河谷土地利用/覆被格局变化，并评估了其生境质量时空演变特征。结果表明：（1） 1980—2020年，伊犁河谷土地利用类型呈现“4增2减”的变化趋势。2035年4种气候情景下，伊犁河谷林草地面积降幅较大，建设用地扩张趋势较为明显，挤占了城郊优质耕地资源。（2）伊犁河谷生境质量等级与土地利用/覆被类型密切相关。生境高值及较高值区主要分布在地形崎岖的林草地覆被区，低值及较低值区主要分布在人类活动集聚区及南北天山未利用地覆被区。（3） 1980—2020年，伊犁河谷生境质量呈现下降趋势。生境质量退化区主要分布在伊犁河-巩乃斯河流域以及特克斯河流域附近。（4） 2035年4种气候情景下，伊犁河谷生境指数持续走低。生境指数均值排序为：SSP1-2.6>SSP2-4.5>SSP3-7.0>SSP5-8.5。伊宁市、边境口岸、农牧业基地等区域生境质量存在退化风险。研究结果可为伊犁河谷地区生态修复政策的制定提供参考依据，为干旱区半干旱区生境质量预测提供新思路。

关键词: 生境质量, 气候变化情景, SD-PLUS模型, InVEST模型, 伊犁河谷

Abstract:

Habitat quality is critical for ecosystem service function and overall health. Accurate prediction of its evolution is essential for fostering high-quality regional ecosystem development. This study employed the system dynamic patch-generating land use simulation (SD-PLUS) model and the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model to forecast land pattern changes, and evaluate the spatial-temporal evolution of habitat quality in the Ili River Valley under diverse 2035 climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). The findings are as follows: (1) From 1980 to 2020, Ili River Valley land use exhibited a “four increase and two decrease” trend. In 2035, under the four climate scenarios, forest and grassland areas in the Ili River Valley will decrease, with a noticeable trend of construction land expansion, leading to the displacement of high-quality arable land in the suburbs. (2) Habitat quality in the Ili River Valley correlates closely with land use/cover type. High- and higher-value habitat areas are primarily scattered in rugged forest and grassland cover areas. Low- and lower-value areas are mainly concentrated in areas with concentrated human activities and unused land cover areas in the north and south Tianshan Mountains. (3) From 1980 to 2020, the habitat quality in the Ili River Valley exhibited a declining trend, particularly in areas near the Ili-Kunes River and Tekes River Basins. (4) The habitat index of the Ili River Valley is projected to decrease under the four climate scenarios in 2035, with the mean value following the order: SSP1-2.6>SSP2-4.5>SSP3-7.0>SSP5-8.5. Notably, habitat quality in Yining City, border ports, and agricultural and livestock bases is at risk of degradation. In conclusion, the results of this study provide valuable insights for developing ecological restoration policies in the Ili River Valley region and offer innovative ideas for predicting habitat quality in arid and semi-arid areas.

Key words: habitat quality, climate change scenarios, SD-PLUS model, InVEST model, Ili River Valley

隋露, 闫志明, 李开放, 何佩恩, 马英杰, 张汝萃. 人类活动及气候变化影响下伊犁河谷生境质量预测研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(1): 104-116.

SUI Lu, YAN Zhiming, LI Kaifang, HE Peien, MA Yingjie, ZHANG Rucui. Prediction of habitat quality in the Ili River Valley under the influence of human activities and climate change[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(1): 104-116.

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威胁因子	影响距离/km	权重	衰退类型
耕地	2	0.2	线性
建设用地	8	1.0	指数
未利用地	3	0.4	线性
铁路	6	0.6	线性
高速公路	5	0.5	线性

变量	年份	实际数据	模拟结果	相对误差/%
总人口/10⁴人	2020	284.84	284.96	0.04
GDP/10⁸元	2020	1266.01	1263.77	-0.18
耕地/km²	2020	9080.26	9039.17	-0.45
林地/km²	2020	3594.13	3609.76	0.43
草地/km²	2020	34156.11	34163.80	0.02
水域/km²	2020	1359.88	1359.89	0.00
建设用地/km²	2020	920.30	900.27	-2.18

年份	土地类型	1980年							转出面积/km²	转出比例%
年份	土地类型	耕地/km²	林地/km²	草地/km²	水域/km²	建设用地/km²	未利用地/km²	各地类面积/km²	转出面积/km²	转出比例%
2020年	耕地	5371.26	16.01	534.11	67.97	295.04	2.56	6286.95	915.69	15.26
	林地	73.95	3408.18	286.50	33.08	3.69	19.80	3825.20	417.02	6.95
	草地	3516.12	160.17	33193.81	153.43	202.37	255.03	37480.93	4287.12	71.42
	水域	6.22	5.29	71.69	1093.54	0.54	98.90	1276.18	182.64	3.04
	建设用地	84.86	0.46	30.47	2.84	417.91	0.02	536.56	118.65	1.98
	未利用地	27.84	4.02	39.53	9.02	0.76	5829.17	5910.34	81.17	1.35
	各地类面积	9080.25	3594.13	34156.11	1359.88	920.31	6205.48	55316.16	6002.29	100.00

年份	情景	生境指数均值	生境等级面积占比/%
年份	情景	生境指数均值	低值区	较低值区	较高值区	高值区
1980		0.7581	11.65	11.37	67.76	9.22
1990		0.7398	12.40	13.51	64.83	9.27
2000		0.7331	12.56	14.52	64.11	8.81
2010		0.7216	12.63	15.82	62.62	8.93
2020		0.7209	12.88	16.42	61.76	8.94
2035	SSP1-2.6	0.7204	12.92	16.49	61.46	9.14
2035	SSP2-4.5	0.7141	13.98	15.91	61.17	8.94
2035	SSP3-7.0	0.7115	14.31	15.91	60.87	8.91
2035	SSP5-8.5	0.7068	15.24	15.16	61.46	8.14