博尔塔拉河源流区径流对气候变化的响应及预测

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.555

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

冰川径流是西北干旱区径流的主要组成部分，研究未来气候变化对冰川径流的影响对西北干旱区径流至关重要。以博尔塔拉河上游源流区为研究区，构建嵌入冰川模块的SWAT模型，模拟温泉水文站1972—2018年月径流过程，并在此基础上研究了气候变化情景下（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）未来（2020—2050年）气候变化对冰川径流的影响。结果表明：SWAT模型能够很好地模拟源流区径流变化过程，在整个模拟期间，径流数据的纳什系数（NSE）为0.82，偏差百分比（PBIAS）为-3.22%，均方根误差与实测值标准差的比值（RSR）为0.42，决定性系数（R²）为0.84，模型性能评定为优。根据CMIP5气候模式2种情景的模拟结果，2种情景模拟未来总径流都呈现出增加趋势，分别将以0.31×10⁸ m³·（10a）^-1和0.40×10⁸ m³·（10a）^-1的速度继续增加，冰川径流占比较历史时期的27.61%分别提升了4.84%和9.38%。冰川径流增加是径流量增加的主要原因。通过相关性分析发现，随着气温的升高，冰川消融时间提前，冰川消融加速，冰川积累时间减少，导致冰川面积进一步的缩减。研究结果可为博河地区水文资料历史变化、未来演变趋势和预防气候变化带来的潜在风险提供依据。

关键词: SWAT模型, 气候变化, CMIP5气候情景模式, 冰川径流, 博尔塔拉河

Abstract:

Glacial runoff is a major component of runoff in the northwest arid zone of China. Understanding the impact of climate change on glacial runoff is crucial, but few studies have been conducted in this field of study in the Bortala River Basin, Xinjiang, China. In this paper, we present the glacier module that was added to the SWAT model and used to simulate monthly runoff in the headwater area of the upper Bortala River Basin. We successfully simulated monthly runoff at the Wenquan hydrological station during the period 1972—2018. Further, we investigated the impact of future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for 2020—2050, based on CMIP5 climate data) on glacier runoff. The model was able to accurately simulate changes in the source area’s runoff process. The results showed that: For the whole simulation period, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency was 0.82, the percent bias was -3.22%, the ratio of root mean square error to standard deviation of measured value was 0.42, and the coefficient of determination was 0.84, thus allowing the model to be rated as “excellent”. Increasing runoff trends were identified in the simulations of both future climate scenarios, with total runoff increases of 0.31×10⁸ m³·(10a)^-1 and 0.40×10⁸ m³·(10a)^-1 and increases in the percentage of glacial runoff of 4.84% and 9.38%, respectively, when compared with the historical period, in which the glacial runoff percentage was 27.61%. These increases in glacial runoff percentage are the main causes of the increases in runoff volume. Correlation analysis revealed that as the temperature increases, glacier ablation advances and accelerates, and glacier accumulation time decreases, leading to further future shrinking of glacier area. The study provides a basis for making changes to historical hydrological information, exploring future evolutionary trends, and mitigating potential climate change risks in the region.

Key words: SWAT model, climate change, CMIP5 climate scenario model, glacial runoff, Bortala River

田昊玮, 陈伏龙, 龙爱华, 刘静, 海洋. 博尔塔拉河源流区径流对气候变化的响应及预测[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(9): 1432-1442.

TIAN Haowei, CHEN Fulong, LONG Aihua, LIU Jing, HAI Yang. Response and prediction of runoff to climate change in the headwaters of the Bortala River[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(9): 1432-1442.

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模拟结果	NSE	RSR	PBIAS/%
优	0.75<NSE≤1.00	0.00≤RSR≤0.50	\|PBIAS\|<10
良	0.65<NSE≤0.75	0.50<RSR≤0.60	10≤\|PBIAS\|<15
合格	0.50<NSE≤0.65	0.60<RSR≤0.70	15≤\|PBIAS\|<25
不合格	NSE≤0.50	RSR>0.70	\|PBIAS\|≥25

编号	CMIP5模式	所属国家	所属机构	水平分辨率
1	ACCESS1-0	澳大利亚	CSIRO-BOM	1.9°×1.2°
2	ACCESS1-3	澳大利亚	CSIRO-BOM	1.9°×1.2°
3	NRM-CM5	法国	CNRM-CERFACS	1.4°×1.4°
4	HadGEM2-CC	英国	MOHC	1.9°×1.2°
5	HadGEM2-ES	英国	MOHC	1.9°×1.2°
6	MIROC5	日本	MIROC	1.4°×1.4°
7	MRI-CGCM3	日本	MRI	1.1°×1.1°
8	BCC-CSM1-1-M	中国	NCC	1.1°×1.1°

参数模块	参数	物理意义	范围	参数最优值
径流	ALPHA_BF.gw	基流α因子/d	[0, 1]	0.0084
	GW_DELAY.gw	地下水的时间延迟/d	[0, 500]	120.00
	GWQMIN.gw	发生回归流所需的浅水层的水位阈值/mm	[0, 5000]	100.00
	REVAPMN.gw	渗入深水层所需的含水层的水位阈值/mm	[0, 1000]	1000.00
	CH_K2.rte	主河道冲积物的有效渗透系数/mm·h^-1	[0, 500]	30.00
	ESCO.hru	土壤蒸发补偿因子	[0, 1]	0.70
融雪	SFTMP.bsn	降雪气温/℃	[-5, 5]	1.00
	SMTMP.bsn	融雪气温/℃	[-5, 5]	0.50
	SMFMX.bsn	6月21日的融雪因子/mm·℃^-1·d^-1	[0, 10]	6.50
	SMFMN.bsn	12月21日的融雪因子/mm·℃^-1·d^-1	[0, 10]	1.50
	TIMP.bsn	积雪温度滞后因子	[0.01, 1.00]	1.00
冰川	Bmelt6	6月21日的融冰因子/mm·℃^-1·d^-1	[1.4, 16.0]	3.50
	Bmelt12	12月21日的融冰因子/mm·℃^-1·d^-1	[1.4, 16.0]	0.50
	gmlt_tmp	融冰温度阈值/℃	[-5, 5]	1.44

水文站	时段	NSE	RSR	PBIAS/%	R²
温泉水文站	校准期（1972年1月—1996年12月）	0.81	0.44	0.26	0.82
	验证期（1997年1月—2018年12月）	0.83	0.41	-6.84	0.86
	全时段（1972年1月—2018年12月）	0.82	0.42	-3.22	0.84

历史	春季			夏季
历史	降水	气温	径流	降水	气温	径流
降水量	1.000	0.541^**	0.013	1.000	-0.143	0.178^*
气温	0.541^**	1.000	-0.237^**	-0.143	1.000	0.503^**
径流	0.013	-0.237	1.000	0.178^*	0.503^**	1.000
历史	秋季			冬季
历史	降水	气温	径流	降水	气温	径流
降水量	1.000	0.360^**	0.178^*	1.000	0.253^**	0.017
气温	0.360^**	1.000	-0.173^*	0.253^**	1.000	-0.060
径流	0.178^*	-0.173	1.000	0.017	-0.060	1.000