中国式现代化与旅游高质量发展耦合协调的时空特征与动力机制研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.763

Abstract

Abstract:

Chinese-style modernization provides fundamental guidance and serves as an action guide for high-quality tourism development, while high-quality tourism development provides a vibrant window for comprehensively showcasing Chinese-style modernization. Using panel data from 31 provincial-level regions in China from 2013 to 2023, a coupling-coordination evaluation index system was constructed for the two systems. Using a weighted summation method, model of the degree of coupling-coordination, spatial correlation analysis, and fixed-effects model, the spatiotemporal characteristics and mechanisms driving the coupling coordination between Chinese-style modernization and high-quality tourism development were evaluated. The results indicate that: (1) The indices of Chinese-style modernization and high-quality tourism development generally maintain a steady growth trend, displaying a pattern of “leading in the east and lagging in the central and western regions”. (2) In terms of temporal evolution, the degree of coupling-coordination between Chinese-style modernization and high-quality tourism development has improved from being on the verge of imbalance to a primary level of coordination, revealing a pattern of “transition to primary/intermediate coordination in the east, emergence from imbalance in the central and western regions, and maintenance of barely coordinated development in the northeast”. Spatially, the degree of coupling-coordination follows a “multi-core” radiation pattern, decreasing from the southeast to the northwest. (3) Driving forces such as economic development impetus, comprehensive industrial driving capacity, resource attractiveness, and innovation leadership are the core factors underlying the coupling-coordination of Chinese-style modernization and high-quality tourism development.

Key words: Chinese-style modernization, high-quality tourism development, coupling coordination, spatiotemporal characteristics, driving mechanism

ZHANG Yuli, LIU Qiaomei, WANG Siyuan, FAN Xinyu, XU Tong, WANG Binbin. Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanism of the coupling coordination between Chinese-style modernization and high-quality tourism development[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(9): 1965-1976.

Figures/Tables 9

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Tab. 1

Tab. 2

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Tab. 4

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系统	一级指标	二级指标	计算方法	单位	指标性质
中国式现代化	人口规模	人口体量	常住人口	10⁴人	正
		人口质量	高等教育在校生数量	10⁴人	正
		城镇化率	城市人口/总人口	%	正
	共同富裕	人均GDP	GDP总值/总人口	元·人^-1	正
	共同富裕	城乡可支配收入比	城市居民可支配收入/农村居民可支配收入	%	负
	文明协调	人均公共藏书	公共图书藏书量/总人口	册·人^-1	正
	文明协调	每百万人图书馆数	图书馆数量/总人口	个·(10⁶人)^-1	正
	人与自然和谐共生	SO₂排放	SO₂排放总量	10⁴ t	负
		废水排放	废水排放量	10⁴ t	负
		能源消耗	能源消耗总量/GDP	tce·(10⁴元)^-1	负
	和平发展	国际友好城市	国际友好城市数量	个	正
	和平发展	对外开放程度	进出口总额/GDP	%	正
旅游高质量发展	创新发展	专利申请	旅游相关专利申请量	个	正
	创新发展	研发投入	研发经费投入	10⁸元	正
	协调发展	旅游产业地位	旅游收入/GDP总值	%	正
	协调发展	旅游产业集聚度	（本省份旅游总收入/本省份GDP）/（全国旅游总收入/全国GDP）	%	正
	绿色发展	森林公园	省级以上森林公园数量	个	正
	绿色发展	空气质量	空气质量优良率	%	正
	开放发展	旅游外汇占比	旅游外汇收入/旅游总收入	%	正
	开放发展	游客规模	国内外游客人数	10⁴人次	正
	共享发展	人均旅游收入	旅游收入/总人口	元·人^-1	正
	共享发展	旅游景区密度	单位面积旅游景区数量	个·km^-2	正

耦合协调度	等级	类型	耦合协调度	等级	类型
[0.0, 0.1)	1	极度失调	[0.5, 0.6)	6	勉强协调
[0.1, 0.2)	2	严重失调	[0.6, 0.7)	7	初级协调
[0.2, 0.3)	3	中度失调	[0.7, 0.8)	8	中级协调
[0.3, 0.4)	4	轻度失调	[0.8, 0.9)	9	良好协调
[0.4, 0.5)	5	濒临失调	[0.9, 1.0]	10	优质协调

推断性统计指标	2013年	2014年	2015年	2016年	2017年	2018年	2019年	2020年	2021年	2022年	2023年
P值	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
Z值	4.251	4.534	4.802	4.906	4.813	4.914	4.740	5.378	4.749	5.191	4.971
全局莫兰指数	0.463	0.498	0.527	0.538	0.526	0.541	0.521	0.601	0.527	0.580	0.554

动力	变量	（1）全国	（2）东部地区	（3）中部地区	（4）西部地区	（5）东北地区
经济发展驱动力	居民可自由支配收入	0.459^*** （9.210）	0.312^*** （5.031）	0.012 （0.087）	0.500^*** （4.719）	0.578^** (2.387)
经济发展驱动力	国内生产总值	0.055 （0.555）	0.061 （0.709）	-1.172 （1.216）	-1.556 （1.343）	1.011 (1.338)
综合产业带动力	旅游总收入	0.488^*** （15.029）	0.341^*** （6.746）	0.418^*** （11.133）	0.354^*** （5.020）	0.892^*** (6.242)
	社会消费品零售总额	0.093^* （1.883）	0.065^* （1.694）	0.085 （0.854）	1.227^*** （3.091）	-2.605^*** (-3.412)
	第三产业增加值	-0.346 （-0.803）	-0.191 （-1.144）	1.151^*** （2.689）	-1.511 （-1.582）	0.123 (0.186)
资源吸引力	旅游景区数量	0.143^*** （4.799）	0.010 （0.316）	0.419^*** （5.250）	0.220^*** （2.924）	0.073 (0.588)
	博物馆数量	0.379^*** （5.921）	0.345^*** （5.755）	0.485^*** （2.757）	0.654^*** （3.511）	1.248^*** (3.083)
	森林覆盖率	0.222^** （2.378）	0.526^*** （2.874）	-0.255 （-1.270）	-0.015 （-0.117）	-0.778 (-1.133)
交通推动力	货运总量	0.064 （0.923）	0.029 （0.321）	0.145 （1.485）	0.667^*** （3.532）	-0.190 (-1.029)
创新引领力	发明专利受理量	0.178^*** （3.081）	0.189^*** （3.918）	-0.417 （-0.968）	-0.731 （-0.891）	4.032 (1.352)
政策支持力	公共预算支出	0.031 （0.601）	0.330 （0.756）	-0.013 （-0.330）	4.568^*** （5.593）	0.634 (0.690)
常数		0.118^*** (2.761)	0.166^*** （3.199）	-0.203^** （-2.400）	0.813^** （2.244）	0.166^*** （3.199）
样本数量		341	110	66	132	33
决定系数（R²）		0.830	0.961	0.969	0.961	0.958

Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanism of the coupling coordination between Chinese-style modernization and high-quality tourism development

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[14]	LIU Hao, LI Fulian, WANG Sheng. Coupling and coordination pattern and influencing factors of home community elderly care and institutional elderly care in China [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(2): 381-392.
[15]	LI Qianguo, SUN Longkai, HUI Fanyan, ZHU Zongbin. Spatiotemporal evolution characteristic and driving mechanism of rural resilience in counties of Gansu Province [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(2): 393-403.