中国北方农牧交错带中段新型城镇化与农业生态系统服务耦合分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.505

Abstract

Abstract:

The northern agropastoral ecotone serves as a critical ecological transition zone in China. The coordination level between new-type urbanization development and agricultural ecosystem service influences regional resource use efficiency and ecological stability, as well as its sustainable development potential. Focusing on 26 counties in the central northern agropastoral ecotone of China as the study area, this study constructs an evaluation system for new-type urbanization across four dimensions: population, economy, society, and agriculture. Based on land use data, an agricultural ecosystem service value assessment model is developed. Hotspot analysis, the coupling coordination degree model, and the geographical detector are employed to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal patterns and interaction mechanisms of new-type urbanization levels and agricultural ecosystem service values from 2010 to 2023. The results indicate that (1) The new-type urbanization level in the study area from 2010 to 2023 rose significantly, while agricultural ecosystem service values exhibited a fluctuating downward trend, with both variables maintaining a consistent “high in the east, low in the west” spatial distribution. (2) The coupling coordination between new-type urbanization and agricultural ecosystem services is characterized by “low-level stagnation and intensifying polarization”, with no counties yet achieving a state of coordinated development. (3) Geodetector analysis reveals that the driving mechanism is predominantly an “agricultural development-led” model, with per capita arable land and agricultural mechanization efficiency per unit area serving as the primary drivers. Interaction detection further shows an evolutionary shift in dominant factors from “economic-agricultural” to “intra-agricultural” synergies, ultimately resulting in a synergistic constraint driven by “resource-natural” factors. The results provide critical insights into the complex interactions between new-type urbanization and the agroecological environment, offering a scientific basis for formulating differentiated spatial governance policies that coordinately advance socio-economic development and agricultural ecological conservation.

Key words: new-type urbanization, agricultural ecosystem service value, coupling coordination degree, geographical detector, northern agro-pastoral ecotone

NING Yaxuan, YIN Hao, LI Jinnuo. Coupling analysis of new-type urbanization and agricultural ecosystem services in the middle section of the northern agro-pastoral ecotone in China[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(7): 1457-1469.

Figures/Tables 10

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类别层	指标层	单位	属性	指标解释	功能权重
人口城镇化	常住人口城镇化率	%	正向	城镇常住人口数占总人口数比例	0.29
	第二、第三产业就业人数比重	%	正向	第二产业、第三产业就业人数占总就业人数比例	0.29
经济城镇化	人均GDP	元·人^-1	正向	-	0.26
	城乡收入平衡指数	%	正向	城乡人均可支配收入比
	第二、第三产业产值占比	%	正向	第二产业、第三产业产值占总产值比例
	人均社会消费品零售额	元·人^-1	正向	-
社会城镇化	卫生机构床位数	张	正向	-	0.24
	普通中学在校人数	人	正向	-
	全社会用电量	10⁴ kWh	正向	-
农业现代化	人均粮食产量	kg·人^-1	正向	-	0.21
	设施农业占地面积	hm²	正向	-
	人均农林牧渔产值	元·人^-1	正向	-

耦合协调度	耦合协调分级	耦合协调阶段
0.0~0.1	极度失调危机型	失调阶段
0.1~0.2	严重失调衰退型
0.2~0.3	显著失调衰退型
0.3~0.4	轻微失调衰退型	过渡阶段
0.4~0.5	濒临失调过渡型
0.5~0.6	勉强协调过渡型
0.6~0.7	基本协调发展型
0.7~0.8	良好协调发展型	协调阶段
0.8~0.9	优质协调发展型
0.9~1.0	完美协调示范型

年份	因素类型	驱动因子	解释力	P
2010	社会经济类	人口密度	0.284	0.000^**
		人均固定资产投资	0.092	0.000^**
		人均存款余额	0.223	0.000^**
	农业发展类	单位面积耕地农机效率	0.203	0.000^**
	农业发展类	人均耕地面积	0.348	0.000^**
	自然条件类	年平均气温	0.133	0.000^**
	自然条件类	干燥度	0.232	0.000^**
2015	社会经济类	人口密度	0.146	0.000^**
		人均固定资产投资	0.159	0.000^**
		人均存款余额	0.132	0.000^**
	农业发展类	单位面积耕地农机效率	0.516	0.000^**
	农业发展类	人均耕地面积	0.346	0.000^**
	自然条件类	年平均气温	0.055	0.000^**
	自然条件类	干燥度	0.112	0.000^**
2020	社会经济类	人口密度	0.119	0.000^**
		人均固定资产投资	0.128	0.000^**
		人均存款余额	0.168	0.000^**
	农业发展类	单位面积耕地农机效率	0.424	0.000^**
	农业发展类	人均耕地面积	0.402	0.000^**
	自然条件类	年平均气温	0.171	0.000^**
	自然条件类	干燥度	0.189	0.000^**
2023	社会经济类	人口密度	0.158	0.000^**
		人均固定资产投资	0.130	0.000^**
		人均存款余额	0.137	0.000^**
	农业发展类	单位面积耕地农机效率	0.278	0.000^**
	农业发展类	人均耕地面积	0.337	0.000^**
	自然条件类	年平均气温	0.096	0.000^**
		干燥度	0.263	0.000^**

Coupling analysis of new-type urbanization and agricultural ecosystem services in the middle section of the northern agro-pastoral ecotone in China

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