基于多因子线性模型的蒙古高原荒漠化综合评价

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.502

Abstract

Abstract:

Desertification is a widespread ecological and environmental issue in arid and semiarid regions. As an inland plateau located within a typical arid and semiarid climatic zone, the Mongolian Plateau faces severe desertification challenges that profoundly impact regional ecological security and sustainable socio-economic development. Based on four dimensions—vegetation, climate, soil, and human activities—this study selected seven indicators: The normalized difference vegetation index, net primary productivity, precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, soil organic matter, and population density. The triangular fuzzy number theory and the analytical hierarchy process were employed to determine indicator weights and establish a multifactor linear evaluation model. Combined with GIS technology, this model was used to conduct a comprehensive assessment of desertification across the Mongolian Plateau. The results indicate that: (1) The vegetation dimension holds the highest weight in the comprehensive evaluation (50.74%), making it the most direct indicator of desertification status. The climate dimension ranks second (25.18%), primarily reflecting the influence of precipitation and temperature on ecosystem processes. The soil and human activity dimensions account for 20.38% and 3.72%, respectively. (2) Areas classified as experiencing light, moderate, or severe desertification are mainly concentrated in the southwestern Mongolian Plateau and collectively account for ~83.4% of the total area. Specifically, severe, moderate, and light desertification cover 41.9%, 24.7%, and 16.8% of the total area, respectively. Nondesertified areas are primarily distributed in the northern and northeastern regions, accounting for 16.6% of the total area. (3) Desertification on the Mongolian Plateau showed an overall worsening trend from 2001 to 2005, followed by a period of improvement from 2005 to 2020 and a slight deterioration from 2020 to 2023. (4) Precipitation is the most crucial driving factor influencing the evolution of desertification in the Mongolian Plateau. Rising temperatures indirectly promote desertification by intensifying evaporation and drought conditions, while human activities exert significant localized impacts. (5) Regional comparisons reveal that desertification in Inner Mongolia has generally improved since 2001, whereas Mongolia has experienced a worsening trend. These contrasting patterns are associated with differences in ecological restoration policies and engineering measures implemented in the two regions.

Key words: Mongolian Plateau, desertification, climate change, multi-factor linear model, spatiotemporal process

ZHAO Jianrong, SHI Hongyan, NI Honghe, YANG Wenhua, LIU Dongwei. Comprehensive evaluation of desertification in the Mongolian Plateau based on a multi-factor linear model[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(8): 1700-1710.

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References 32

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指标	来源	空间分辨率	时间分辨率	来源
气温/℃	CRUTS数据集	0.5°×0.5°	年均值	https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/
降水量/mm	TerraClimate数据集	1/24°	年总量	https://www.climatologylab.org/terraclimate.html
NDVI	Modis数据集	0.05°×0.05°	年均值	https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/products/mod13c1v061/
NPP/g C∙m^-2	Modis数据集	500 m	年均值	https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/products/mod17a3hgfv061/
土壤水分/mm	TerraClimate数据集	1/24°	年均值	https://www.climatologylab.org/terraclimate.html
土壤有机质/%	HWSD数据集	30″	固定值	https://gaez.fao.org/pages/hwsd
人口总数/人	LandScan数据集	30″	年度值	https://landscan.ornl.gov/

指标	NDVI	NPP	降水量	气温	土壤水分	土壤有机质	人口强度
NDVI	1	1	2	3	2	4	5
NPP	1	1	2	3	2	4	5
降水量	1/2	1/2	1	2	1	3	4
气温	1/3	1/3	1/2	1	1/2	3	4
土壤水分	1/2	1/2	1	2	1	3	4
土壤有机质	1/4	1/4	1/3	1/3	1/3	1	2
人口强度	1/5	1/5	1/4	1/4	1/4	1/2	1

指标	权重	分级范围	评分	指标	权重	分级范围	评分
NDVI	0.2537	<0.13	1	土壤水分	0.1494	<3.26	1
		0.13~0.21	3			3.26~11.95	3
		0.21~0.29	5			11.95~25.70	5
		0.29~0.40	7			25.70~42.36	7
		>0.40	9			>42.36	9
NPP	0.2537	<53.39	1	土壤有机质	0.0544	<0.92	1
		53.39~175.00	3			0.92~1.89	3
		175.00~302.55	5			1.89~2.90	5
		302.55~438.99	7			2.90~4.68	7
		>438.99	9			>4.68	9
降水量	0.1494	<131.97	1	人口强度	0.0372	<170	9
		131.97~238.75	3			170~969	7
		238.75~345.52	5			969~3444	5
		345.52~465.32	7			3444~9393	3
		>465.32	9			>9393	1
气温	0.1024	<-2.63	1
		-2.63~0.52	2
		0.52~3.75	6
		3.75~7.29	5
		>7.29	4

荒漠化等级	NDVI	NPP/g C∙m^-2	降水量/mm	气温/℃	土壤水分/mm	土壤有机质/%	人口强度
重度荒漠化	0.09	31.55	90.97	5.41	0.23	0.73	1.92
中度荒漠化	0.17	192.76	212.12	2.11	1.24	1.24	8.96
轻度荒漠化	0.25	293.73	309.97	2.01	5.13	1.89	14.58
非荒漠化	0.38	439.83	425.95	0.78	19.90	2.34	7.93

Comprehensive evaluation of desertification in the Mongolian Plateau based on a multi-factor linear model

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