基于CMIP6未来情景的伊犁河流域地质灾害危险性评估预测

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Geological disaster hazard assessment and prediction in the Ili River Basin based on CMIP6 future scenarios

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doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.520

Abstract:

To assess the impact of future climate change on geological hazard zoning in the Ili River Basin, Xinjiang, China, climate data from different scenarios of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were selected to analyze climate change characteristics under various shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios from 2021 to 2040. The information quantity-random forest model was employed to conduct the geological hazard assessment and generate a prediction map. The results indicate that: (1) High and extremely high hazard areas are primarily concentrated in northern Yining County, southern Nilka County, and northern Xinyuan County in the middle mountainous hilly regions; debris flow hazard areas are mainly located in southern Zhaosu County, the northern region of Keguqin Mountain in Huocheng County, Hejing County, and the middle-to-high mountainous areas in eastern Nilka County. (2) From 2021 to 2040, the Ili River Basin is projected to experience a general increase in temperature and precipitation, with a maximum annual average temperature rise of approximately 1.53 ℃ and a maximum precipitation increase of about 19.3 mm. (3) Under future SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios, high-hazard areas for landslides and rockfalls are expected to expand. The severity of landslides in southern Yining County, northern Xinyuan County, and southwestern Nilka County, as well as debris flows in northern Khorgas City and Yining County, is anticipated to worsen, with maximum increases of 17.31% and 8.77%, respectively. The findings of this study provide valuable insights for future disaster prevention and mitigation efforts in the Ili River Basin.

Key words: CMIP6, geological disasters, hazard assessment prediction, climate change, Ili River Basin

CHEN Shilong, MENG Qingkai, DAI Yong, YANG Liqiang, WU Han. Geological disaster hazard assessment and prediction in the Ili River Basin based on CMIP6 future scenarios[J].Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(4): 599-611.

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数据内容	评价指标	数据来源
数字高程模型数据	坡度	https://www.gscloud.cn
	坡向	https://www.gscloud.cn
	高程	https://www.gscloud.cn
	曲率	https://www.gscloud.cn
	距河流距离	https://www.gscloud.cn
土地利用类型数据	土地利用类型	http://www.globallandcover.com
工程地质岩组数据	工程地质岩组	http://www.ngac.org.cn/ddzt/index1.html
断层数据	距断层距离	http://www.ngac.org.cn/ddzt/index1.html
地震峰值加速度数据	PGA	https://zenodo.org
气候数据	降水量	https://worldclim.org
气候数据	气温	https://worldclim.org

评价因子	分区	崩滑信息量	泥石流信息量	评价因子	分区	崩滑信息量	泥石流信息量
坡度/(°)	<5	-1.523	-1.511	距断层距离/m	<1000	0.685	-0.887
	5~15	0.008	-0.924		1000~2000	0.102	-0.751
	15~25	0.887	0.067		2000~5000	-0.068	0.035
	25~40	0.285	0.670		5000~10000	0.158	0.338
	>40	-0.687	1.363		>10000	-1.271	0.089
坡向/(°)	北	0.013	-0.661	工程地质岩组	坚硬中-厚层状碳酸盐岩组	-0.945	0.591
坡向/(°)	东北	0.425	0.600	工程地质岩组	坚硬中-厚层状碳酸盐岩组	-0.945	0.591
	东	0.327	0.357		坚硬块状花岗岩岩组	-0.316	0.765
	东南	-0.249	0.252		坚硬块状花岗岩岩组	-0.316	0.765
	南	-0.907	-0.009		第四系冲洪积、风积、冰积黄土	0.867	-1.987
	西南	-0.267	-0.256
	西	0.325	0.036
	西北	0.037	-0.292		互层状较软砂岩、砾岩为主的碎屑岩岩组	0.584	0.159
高程/m	<1000	-3.569	-5.539
	1000~1500	0.422	-1.637
	1500~2000	0.873	-1.527		坚硬、较坚硬砂岩为主的碎屑岩岩组	0.756	-1.208
	2000~3000	-0.463	0.238
	>3000	-0.526	1.289
曲率	<-1.00	-0.157	0.372	PGA/g	<0.2	-1.420	-0.644
	-1.00~-0.35	-0.274	-0.612		0.2~0.25	0.010	0.319
	-0.35~0.35	-0.671	-0.737		0.25~0.3	0.446	-0.552
	0.35~1.00	0.803	0.558		0.3~0.4	-0.300	0.104
	>1.00	0.054	0.211		>0.4	0.000	0.000
土地利用类型	裸地	-0.482	0.988	气温/℃	<-4	-0.443	1.281
	农作物	-2.359	-6.898		-4~0	-0.553	-0.531
	建筑用地	-3.305	0.000		0~4	0.822	-1.615
	灌木林地	0.347	-0.097		4~8	-0.132	-2.003
	其他	-1.424	0.762		>8	-6.175	-5.112
距河流距离/m	<200	0.020	1.044	降水量/mm	<250	-0.043	-3.174
	200~500	0.392	1.281		250~350	0.227	-0.956
	500~1000	0.481	-0.086		350~450	-0.359	0.987
	1000~2000	-0.011	-1.597		450~550	-1.053	1.197
	>2000	-0.790	-3.225		>550	-0.465	0.502

崩滑危险区等级	2000—2020年	2021—2040年
崩滑危险区等级	2000—2020年	SSP126	SSP245	SSP370	SSP585
极低危险区	15.12	7.74	10.01	8.64	5.79
低危险区	17.63	8.26	11.69	10.24	10.08
中危险区	27.19	35.21	35.15	28.49	26.76
高危险区	24.84	28.65	27.32	31.25	32.61
极高危险区	15.22	20.14	15.83	21.38	24.76
泥石流危险区等级	2000—2020年	2021—2040年
泥石流危险区等级	2000—2020年	SSP126	SSP245	SSP370	SSP585
极低危险区	8.71	3.21	3.11	3.02	3.28
低危险区	19.71	16.86	17.47	14.64	14.94
中危险区	27.47	32.58	34.86	32.71	28.90
高危险区	27.83	29.12	27.79	30.06	31.34
极高危险区	16.28	18.23	16.77	19.57	21.54

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