1990—2024年昆仑山北坡典型流域湖泊时空动态变化研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.298

Abstract

Abstract:

As sensitive indicators of climate change in arid regions, lakes provide critical insights into regional water resource allocation and utilization. Thus, the accurate identification of their spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms is of great significance. Employing multisource remote sensing and meteorological records from 1990 to 2024 and integrating the normalized difference water index with manual interpretation and correction, this study systematically extracted and cataloged lake dynamics on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains. The spatiotemporal evolution of lakes and their driving mechanisms over the past 35 years were subsequently analyzed. The results indicate the following: (1) From 1990 to 2024, the number and total area of lakes on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains increased significantly. While the number of lakes increased from 125 to 396 (216.80% increase), the total lake-area expanded from 1439.18 km² to 2614.22 km² (81.65% increase). (2) Spatially, the most significant lake-area expansion occurred in the Cherchen River Basin, where the lake-area increased by ~3.6 times, corresponding to a net gain of 138.86 km². This was followed by the Hotan River Basin, where the lake-area approximately doubled, with a net gain of 46.98 km², and the Kumukuli Basin, where the lake-area increased by 73.20%, corresponding to a net gain of 989.20 km². Regarding elevation, mountain lakes exhibited a net area increase of 1144.47 km², which was substantially higher than the 30.57 km² increase observed for plain lakes. (3) Temporally, lake-area variations exhibited distinct stage-wise characteristics. Lake-area declined from 1990 to 1995, with an average annual loss of 23.26 km²·a^-1, followed by continuous expansion after 1995. Notably, this period accounted for a rapid increase of 52.56 km²·a^-1. Between 2000 and 2005, the mean annual growth rate of lake-area was 39.90 km²·a^-1. After 2005, the rate of extreme changes fluctuated slightly but maintained an overall increasing trend. (4) Lake expansion on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains was primarily driven by glacier and snowmelt resulting from the combined effects of soaring temperatures and increased precipitation. Over the past 35 years, mountain water storage has increased markedly and was accompanied by increases of 35.30% and 13.18% in temperature and precipitation, respectively. The Cherchen River and Kumukuli Basin exhibited particularly strong responses to these climatic changes. Conversely, fluctuations in plain lakes were mainly governed by the synergistic effects of enhanced evaporative demand associated with rising temperatures and variability in precipitation. These findings provide important scientific evidence and policy-relevant implications for water resource management and climate impact assessment in the northern Kunlun Mountains region.

Key words: normalized difference water index(NDWI), lake dynamic change, climate change, the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains

ZHANG Qifei, YUAN Zebin, CHEN Yaning, XIANG Yanyun, JIA Rong, LIU Yuting. Spatiotemporal dynamic changes of typical lakes on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains from 1990 to 2024[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(8): 1531-1544.

Figures/Tables 12

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

List of satellite images used in this study"

年份	传感器类型	分辨率/m	轨道号	云覆盖度/%	年份	传感器类型	分辨率/m	轨道号	云覆盖度/%
1990	Landsat5 （TM）	30	140-033、141-033、 141-034	1.03、2.77、2.99	2005	Landsat7 （ETM+）	30	146-035、146-036、 147-034	0.27、0.89、1.67
			142-033、142-034、 142-035	0.01、0.47、0.26	2005	Landsat7 （ETM+）	30	147-035、147-036、 148-034	0.09、0.73、4.11
			143-035、146-032、 146-034	2.16、0.13、0.28	2010	Landsat5 （TM）	30	140-033、141-033、 141-034	0.03、1.39、4.81
			146-035、146-036、 147-034	0.03、1.07、3.97				142-033、142-034、 142-035	3.36、1.06、0.76
			147-035、147-036、 148-034	2.74、4.99、0.26				143-035、146-032、 146-034	0.15、0.97、0.88
1995	Landsat5 （TM）	30	140-033、141-033、 141-034	3.40、0.30、0.69				146-035、146-036、 147-034	0.34、0.29、0.46
			142-033、142-034、 142-035	1.05、0.58、4.23				147-035、147-036、 148-034	4.88、0.62、0.49
			143-035、146-032、 146-034	2.16、0.13、0.28	2015	Landsat8 （OLI、TIRS）	30	140-033、141-033、 141-034	0.32、4.59、3.43
			146-035、146-036、 147-034	2.19、1.45、3.35				142-033、142-034、 142-035	0.95、0.66、3.12
			147-035、147-036、 148-034	0.86、2.13、0.06				143-035、146-032、 146-034	2.73、1.09、1.40
2000	Landsat5 （TM）	30	140-033、141-033、 141-034	0.58、1.20、0.58				146-035、146-036、 147-034	1.64、1.78、3.32
			142-033、142-034、 142-035	1.27、0.67、0.06				147-035、147-036、 148-034	1.61、5.92、0.11
			143-035、146-032、 146-034	3.96、1.75、0.44	2020	Landsat8 （OLI、TIRS）	30	140-033、141-033、 141-034	0.55、1.01、3.97
2000	Landsat7 （ETM+）	30	146-035、146-036、 147-034	0.03、1.60、0.77				142-033、142-034、 142-035	0.79、0.24、1.26
2000	Landsat7 （ETM+）	30	147-035、147-036、 148-034	0.02、0.33、2.37				143-035、146-032、 146-034	3.93、2.82、1.07
2005	Landsat5 （TM）	30	140-033、141-033、 141-034	2.16、1.94、1.83				143-035、146-032、 146-034	3.93、2.82、1.07
			140-033、141-033、 141-034	2.16、1.94、1.83	2024	Sentinel-2 （MSI）	10		<5
			143-035、146-032、 146-034	1.51、0.40、2.91
			142-033、142-034、 142-035	0.38、0.76、0.25

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Fig. 2

Tab. 3

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Tab. 4

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年份	车尔臣河	和田河	库木库里盆地
1990	2.84（5.55%）	3.18（9.30%）	12.08（0.89%）
1995	1.68（3.28%）	3.44（10.06%）	8.69（0.70%）
2000	10.56（20.64%）	8.67（25.35%）	12.53（0.92%）
2005	8.28（16.18%）	4.06（11.87%）	16.45（1.01%）
2010	9.06（17.71%）	4.24（12.40%）	16.56（0.90%）
2015	6.38（12.47%）	3.86（11.29%）	16.10（0.81%）
2020	12.37（24.17%）	6.75（19.74%）	32.76（1.50%）
2024	16.38（9.26%）	8.38（8.67%）	24.56（1.05%）

年份	车尔臣河流域	和田河流域	库木库里盆地	总面积
1990	38.08	49.65	1351.45	1439.18
1995	22.66	52.16	1248.08	1322.90
2000	141.44	78.80	1365.46	1585.70
2005	94.82	67.55	1622.82	1785.19
2010	125.29	58.93	1847.22	2031.44
2015	116.48	70.97	1995.40	2182.85
2020	158.79	74.18	2184.21	2417.18
2024	176.94	96.63	2340.65	2614.22

年份	分级
	0.05~0.10 km²		0.10~0.50 km²		0.50~1.00 km²		>1.00 km²
	数量/个	面积/km²	数量/个	面积/km²	数量/个	面积/km²	数量/个	面积/km²
1990	40	2.86	52	11.09	4	2.92	20	1402.65
1995	32	2.35	30	6.28	5	3.64	19	1310.63
2000	104	7.18	160	33.17	21	14.50	40	1520.79
2005	89	5.96	109	23.96	19	12.00	35	1743.27
2010	89	6.17	124	25.88	29	20.91	29	1978.48
2015	93	6.57	106	23.36	20	13.81	32	2139.11
2020	109	7.59	153	32.62	26	17.84	41	2359.13
2024	128	8.99	166	34.93	31	21.48	71	2548.81
1990—2024	220.00%	214.34%	219.23%	214.97%	675.00%	635.62%	255.00%	81.71%

Spatiotemporal dynamic changes of typical lakes on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains from 1990 to 2024

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