1978—2023年陇东冰雹气候特征及其影响因素分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.582

Abstract

Abstract:

Hail is an extreme weather phenomenon caused by intense convective activity, characterized by rapid development and substantial damage, particularly threatening to the Longdong region, eastern Gansu Province, China where agriculture constitutes the economic backbone. In the context of climate change, it is imperative to investigate the climatic characteristics of hail in Longdong and identify its influencing factors. Utilizing hail observation and disaster records from 15 regional meteorological stations spanning from 1978 to 2023, along with ERA5 reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, this study employs linear trend estimation, the Mann-Kendall test, and Morlet wavelet analysis to examine the spatial-temporal distribution of hail and its key drivers. The results indicate the following: (1) Hail days exhibit uneven spatial distribution, with higher frequencies in the northwest and southeast, and lower frequencies in the central and southern regions. Hail-prone zones are predominantly situated on downslope terrains, leeward mountain slopes, and the Ziwuling Mountains, while hail-scarce areas are concentrated in the flat loess plateau and southern Liupan Mountains. (2) Over the past 46 years, hail days have declined, with the sharpest decrease observed in spring. Hail predominantly occurs between May and August, accounting for 81.5% of annual hail events. (3) The diurnal variation of hail follows a single-peak pattern, with peak occurrences between 15:00 and 18:00. Hail events of short duration (0-9 minutes) and medium diameter are most frequent. Localized hail occurs more frequently than regional hail, though the incidence of the latter is increasing significantly. (4) A primary oscillation period of 3 years, and secondary cycles of 14 and 35 years, characterize hail frequency. (5) The principal meteorological drivers of hail vary seasonally, with convective available potential energy and the 0 ℃ isotherm height being the most influential. These findings provide a scientific basis for understanding hail occurrence patterns in Longdong and serve as a reference for enhancing forecasting and early warning systems, as well as for guiding artificial hail suppression strategies.

Key words: hail, climatic characteristics, influencing factors, climate change, eastern Gansu Province

ZHANG Kexin, ZHAO Yujuan, LI Meiyu. Hail climate characteristics and influencing factors in eastern Gansu Province from 1978 to 2023[J].Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(8): 1374-1384.

Figures/Tables 11

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大气物理参数	春季	夏季	秋季
2 m气温/K	-0.440^**	-0.031	-0.121
2 m露点温度/K	0.360^*	-0.038	-0.142
对流有效位能（CAPE）/J·kg^-1	0.554^***	0.169	0.480^***
云底高度/m	-0.457^**	0.113	0.069
对流性降水/mm	0.316^*	-0.005	0.026
K指数/℃	0.393^**	0.155	-0.152
总降水量/mm	0.346^*	-0.164	-0.090
0 ℃层高度/m	-0.305^*	-0.291^*	-0.209

Hail climate characteristics and influencing factors in eastern Gansu Province from 1978 to 2023

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