基于MaxEnt模型预测气候变化下准噶尔沙蒿（Artemisia songarica）在新疆的潜在分布

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.657

Abstract

Abstract:

Artemisia songarica is a crucial species in desert and semi-desert ecosystems, significantly contributing to the maintaince of ecological balance in Xinjiang of China. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, this study predicts the potential suitable habitat distribution of A. songarica under current and future climate scenarios (2041—2060 and 2081—2100) and analyzes the main environmental factors driving its distribution pattern. The key findings are as follow: (1) Under current climatic conditions, the potential suitable habitats of A. songarica are primarily located in northern Xinjiang and along the oasis margins of the dessert in southern Xinjiang, covering approximately 57.95×10⁴km². The main environmental determinants include the human footprint index (hfp), precipitation seasonality (bio15), precipitation of the driest month (bio14), isothermality (bio3), and the mean diurnal temperature range (bio2). (2) Excluding human influence factors, a significant expansion of the species’ potential distribution, with an increase in habitat suitability and more consistent habitat connectivity is observed. This suggests that human activities have a detrimental impact on survival and development. (3) Under future climatic scenarios, the potential distribution of suitable habitats largely overlaps with the current distributions. In low radiative forcing scenarios (SSP126) and moderately stable scenarios (SSP245), suitable habitats initially expand and then experience slight contraction. Expansion primarily occurs along the northern edge of Hami City and the southern borders of Hotan and Kashgar Prefectures, while contraction areas are concentrated in the Junggar Basin and southern oasis margins. Under a high radiative forcing scenario (SSP585), suitable habitats expand eastward along the current distribution boundary. Additionally, the centroid of potential suitable habitat is projected to shift toward lower latitudes, with migration distance positively correlated with the intensity of radiative forcing.

Key words: Artemisia songarica, MaxEnt model, human footprint, potential suitable habitat, climate change

LI Wenhua, LI Shengyu, XU Xinwen, MIAO Jiamin, LYU Zhentao. Predicting the potential distribution of Artemisia songarica in Xinjiang under climate change based on the MaxEnt model[J].Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(9): 1578-1588.

Figures/Tables 9

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References 39

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环境因子	符号	变量
气候因子	bio1	年平均气温/℃
	bio2	昼夜温差月均值/℃
	bio3	等温性
	bio4	温度季节性
	bio5	最暖月最高温/℃
	bio6	最冷月最低温/℃
	bio7	温度年度范围/℃
	bio8	最湿季度均温/℃
	bio9	最干季度均温/℃
	bio10	最暖季度均温/℃
	bio11	最冷季度均温/℃
	bio12	年平均降水量/mm
	bio13	最湿月降水量/mm
	bio14	最干月降水量/mm
	bio15	降水量季节变异系数
	bio16	最湿季度降水量/mm
	bio17	最干季度降水量/mm
	bio18	最暖季度降水量/mm
	bio19	最冷季度降水量/mm
土壤因子	clay1	0~30 cm黏土含量/%
	clay2	30~60 cm黏土含量/%
	sand1	0~30 cm砂土含量/%
	sand2	30~60 cm砂土含量/%
地形因子	elev	海拔/m
其他因子	hfp	人类足迹指数

气候条件	纬度/°N	经度/°E	长轴/km	短轴/km	面积/km²
当代	42.95	85.18	640.68	391.92	788768.13
2041—2060年（SSP126）	42.64	85.16	646.16	407.30	826740.30
2041—2060年（SSP245）	42.87	85.19	646.30	398.86	809787.00
2041—2060年（SSP585）	42.74	85.22	645.63	404.96	821310.25
2081—2100年（SSP126）	42.94	85.17	637.36	401.22	803319.60
2081—2100年（SSP245）	42.93	85.30	651.31	403.16	824873.83
2081—2100年（SSP585）	42.52	85.20	650.18	415.93	849509.55

Predicting the potential distribution of Artemisia songarica in Xinjiang under climate change based on the MaxEnt model

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