蒙古高原草原火灾风险评价研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.04.16

Abstract

Abstract:

Grassland fires are a major type of natural disaster in pastoral areas and can seriously affect their socioeconomic security and physical safety. To assess the risk of grassland fire on the Mongolian Plateau, index layer data of each league and city were obtained from 2000 to 2016. Then, a risk assessment index system for grassland fire on the Mongolian Plateau was screened and constructed according to four risk elements of natural disasters: hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and prevention/mitigation capability. The index weight was determined through principal component analysis, and a fire risk distribution map of Mongolian Plateau grassland was generated by using the spatial analysis function of a geographic information system. The results were as follows. (1) The principal component analysis obtained seven principal components, which reduced the number of indices and accurately identified the risk factors of grassland fire sources. (2) Areas with a high hazard of grassland fire were distributed in the central part of Mongolia, and the hazard decreased in the surrounding areas. Areas with high exposure were distributed in the northeastern part of Inner Mongolia. Areas with high vulnerability were distributed in the northern part of Inner Mongolia and Kent Province of Mongolia. Areas with strong disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities were mainly distributed in Hulunbuir City, the Xing’an League, and Ordos City of Inner Mongolia. (3) Generally, the northeastern part of Inner Mongolia had a higher risk of grassland fire than the western part, and the risk decreased from east to west and from the center of Mongolia to the surrounding areas. Low-risk, semi-low-risk, medium-risk, semi-high-risk, and high-risk areas accounted for 4.86%, 36.20%, 28.37%, 11.56%, and 18.99%, respectively, of the grassland area of the Mongolian Plateau. On the basis of the geographical environment characteristics and economic development level of each league and city in China and Mongolia, fire prevention strategies can be devised to reduce the risk of grassland fire and guide the sustainable development of grassland animal husbandry.

Key words: grassland fire disaster, risk assessment, principal component analysis, GIS, Mongolian Plateau

YANG Xiaoying,Yu Shan,Du Wala,Hong Mei. Risk assessment of grassland fire on the Mongolian Plateau[J].Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(4): 1032-1044.

Figures/Tables 9

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References 38

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目标层	因子（权重）	次因子	指标	指标权重
草原火灾风险综合指标	危险性（0.3287）	火源	人口密度/人·km^-2	0.0460
		可燃物特征	可燃物量	0.0584
		气象条件	月均最高气温/℃	0.0431
			月均最大风速/m·s^-1	0.0560
			月降水量/mm	0.0730
			积雪面积/m²	0.0068
		地形环境	高程/m	0.0225
			坡度/（°）	0.0193
			坡向	0.0036
	暴露性（0.2224）	生命暴露性	人口数量/人	0.0609
			牲畜数量/头	0.0460
		经济暴露性	地区生产总值/元	0.0618
			建筑物数量/间	0.0537
	脆弱性（0.2548）	生命脆弱性	非劳动人口数/人	0.0494
			幼畜数量/头	0.0494
			可燃物类型	0.0540
		经济脆弱性	牧业产值占GDP比值/%	0.0540
			人均GDP/元·人^-1	0.0480
	防灾减灾能力（0.1941）	防火条件	防火人员数量/人	0.0506
			防火设备数量/套	0.0009
			防火资金投入/元	0.0543
			防火隔离带/条	0.0570
		交通条件	道路密度/km·km^-2	0.0312

主成分	初始特征值			提取平方和载入
主成分	合计	方差/%	累积/%	合计	方差/%	累积/%
1	9.584	41.672	41.672	9.584	41.672	41.672
2	3.395	14.760	56.432	3.395	14.760	56.432
3	2.002	8.703	65.135	2.002	8.703	65.135
4	1.440	6.259	71.394	1.440	6.259	71.394
5	1.250	5.436	76.830	1.250	5.436	76.830
6	1.172	5.095	81.925	1.172	5.095	81.925
7	1.018	4.425	86.350	1.018	4.425	86.350
8	0.759	3.300	89.650	-	-	-
9	0.540	2.347	91.996	-	-	-
10	0.466	2.028	94.024	-	-	-
11	0.331	1.439	95.463	-	-	-
12	0.283	1.229	96.693	-	-	-
13	0.203	0.882	97.574	-	-	-
14	0.153	0.665	98.240	-	-	-
15	0.120	0.520	98.760	-	-	-
16	0.082	0.358	99.118	-	-	-
17	0.070	0.306	99.424	-	-	-
18	0.060	0.261	99.686	-	-	-
19	0.030	0.130	99.816	-	-	-
20	0.024	0.106	99.922	-	-	-
21	0.012	0.054	99.976	-	-	-
22	0.006	0.024	100.000	-	-	-
23	0.000	0.000	100.000	-	-	-

指标	成分矩阵
指标	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
人口密度	0.283	-0.078	0.783	0.193	-0.088	-0.084	0.263
可燃物量	0.396	0.871	0.025	-0.056	-0.101	-0.089	0.137
月均最高气温	-0.759	-0.163	0.211	0.043	0.020	-0.108	0.379
月均最大风速	-0.926	0.088	-0.080	0.149	-0.065	0.063	0.028
月降水量	0.596	0.700	0.058	0.027	0.088	-0.089	0.153
积雪面积	-0.311	0.674	0.214	-0.173	-0.281	0.371	-0.145
高程	-0.622	-0.092	-0.026	0.602	-0.019	0.405	-0.058
坡度	-0.330	0.609	-0.011	0.480	-0.138	0.381	-0.019
坡向	-0.443	0.125	0.338	-0.065	0.637	-0.075	0.277
人口数量	0.898	-0.011	-0.109	0.196	-0.108	-0.064	0.191
牲畜数量	0.851	-0.071	-0.340	-0.151	0.021	0.181	0.086
地区生产总值	0.804	-0.250	0.016	0.278	0.132	0.217	0.116
建筑物数量	0.717	-0.158	0.060	0.501	-0.065	-0.099	0.070
非劳动人口数	0.819	0.013	-0.212	0.107	-0.162	-0.091	0.196
幼畜数量	0.600	0.049	0.188	0.407	0.199	-0.248	-0.346
可燃物类型	0.389	0.852	-0.065	-0.035	-0.093	-0.165	0.163
牧业产值占GDP比值	-0.717	0.075	-0.458	0.154	0.222	-0.136	-0.076
人均GDP	0.775	-0.407	0.321	0.036	-0.004	0.135	-0.049
防火人员数量	0.623	-0.113	-0.252	-0.143	0.258	0.460	0.381
防火设备数量	0.578	-0.372	-0.148	-0.127	-0.505	-0.065	-0.065
防火资金投入	0.692	0.320	-0.030	0.101	0.311	-0.208	-0.394
防火隔离带	0.721	0.104	-0.097	-0.183	0.369	0.379	-0.226
道路密度	0.256	-0.006	0.740	-0.270	-0.058	0.225	-0.223

Risk assessment of grassland fire on the Mongolian Plateau

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