祁连山及周边降水分布聚类检验和典型流域增雨效果评价

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2021.341

Abstract

Abstract:

The topography of Qilian Mountains and its surrounding areas in northwest China is complex, and the precipitation it receives is extremely irregular in time and space. The ability to characterize the distribution of rainfall and snowfall has great practical significance for understanding changes in precipitation patterns. Using data from 31 base stations covering the months of May-September, 1961—2020, precipitation was analyzed by principal component analysis (PCA). The significance of the results was then tested by cluster analysis with statistical test (CAST). Finally, a geographic zonation was applied to evaluate the effects of artificial precipitation enhancement. The results show that: (1) Seven geographic areas (Z1-Z7) can satisfactorily represent the characteristics of precipitation distribution in the study area (the contribution rate of cumulative variance exceeds 78%). (2) The zones take Ledu, Haiyan, Yeniugou, Wuwei, Gaotai, Linze, and Gangcha stations as the central points respectively, and their zonal characteristics significantly reflect precipitation, terrain, and altitude. (3) Effects of artificial precipitation enhancement were evaluated by statistical regression of regional historical data. For the months of May-September during 1992—2020, the benefit was most pronounced in the Shiyang River Basin, where the absolute enhancement was 8.91 mm and the relative precipitation enhancement rate was 6.51% with the highest in July (6.30 mm, 21.86%), followed by August (5.44 mm, 16.11%). Assessing artificial enhancement of precipitation based on ground data relies heavily on the selection of a suitable comparison area, so results can change significantly with different comparison choices. The method of cluster analysis with statistical testing is not only helpful in zoning and classification of precipitation in complex terrain, but it also provides an objective basis for the selection of comparison areas.

Key words: cluster analysis with statistical test (CAST), principal component analysis (PCA), division and classification, evaluation of precipitation enhancement effects

GUO Xiaoqin,LI Guangming,SUN Zhanfeng,WANG Xingtao. Cluster analysis with statistical test of precipitation distribution in Qilian Mountains and its surrounding area and evaluation of artificial precipitation enhancement in typical watershed[J].Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(3): 706-714.

Figures/Tables 6

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主分量	主成分分析（PCA）			鲁棒主成分分析（RPCA）
主分量	特征值	方差贡献率/%	累积贡献率/%	特征值	方差贡献率/%	累积贡献率/%
C₁	10.842	34.973	34.973	6.694	21.592	21.592
C₂	4.547	14.666	49.639	4.182	13.491	35.083
C₃	2.942	9.490	59.129	3.824	12.334	47.417
C₄	2.024	6.530	65.659	3.378	10.898	58.315
C₅	1.512	4.877	70.536	2.257	7.282	65.597
C₆	1.341	4.326	74.862	1.959	6.318	71.915
C₇	1.015	3.274	78.135	1.928	6.221	78.135

降水区域	中心站	最大荷载值	站点数量	统计量	临界值
Z1	乐都	0.892	8	34.303	40.113
Z2	海晏	0.751	7	7.607	31.410
Z3	野牛沟	0.786	6	2.054	23.685
Z4	武威	0.903	4	0.501	11.070
Z5	高台	0.824	2	0.000	3.841
Z6	临泽	0.952	2	0.000	3.841
Z7	刚察	0.814	2	0.000	3.841

月份	Z（Sig.）		相关系数（r）	回归方程	T	绝对增雨量/mm	相对增雨率/%
月份	对比区	影响区	相关系数（r）	回归方程	T	绝对增雨量/mm	相对增雨率/%
5	1.015（0.254）	0.935（0.346）	0.833^*	y=5.929+0.950x	8.110	-0.19	-1.04
6	1.242（0.092）	1.257（0.085）	0.604^*	y=10.411+0.972x	4.084	-1.56	-6.26
7	0.864（0.444）	0.905（0.386）	0.490^*	y=18.367+0.385x	3.029	6.30	21.86
8	0.948（0.330）	1.051（0.220）	0.680^*	y=12.292+0.832x	4.998	5.44	16.11
9	1.261（0.083）	0.877（0.426）	0.677^*	y= 9.889+0.849x	4.948	1.26	4.40
5—9	0.502（0.963）	0.564（0.908）	0.665^*	y=54.432+0.800x	4.798	8.91	6.51

Cluster analysis with statistical test of precipitation distribution in Qilian Mountains and its surrounding area and evaluation of artificial precipitation enhancement in typical watershed

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