1957—2019年山西省暴雨时空分布特征与暴雨灾害风险评估

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.425

Abstract

Abstract:

Wavelet analysis and other methods were used to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of rainstorm in Shanxi Province of China based on the daily precipitation data of 27 meteorological stations in Shanxi Province from 1957 to 2019. Based on the theory of natural disaster, the decision analysis method (AHP) is used to conduct the risk assessment of rainstorm disasters. The following results were obtained: (1) Regarding the timescale, the time of rainstorm has presented periodicity and seasonality. The interannual variation of rainstorm has four-timescale oscillations of 4 years, 9 years, 14-15 years, and 27-28 years. The oscillation period shortened, and the frequency shows an increasing trend. Rainstorm season uneven distribution mostly concentrated in the summer and the probability of the formation of rainstorm disasters was great. The number of cumulative rainstorm days between June and August each year accounted for 85.23% of the total, with July accounting for the largest proportion of 45.18%. (2) Regarding the spatial scale, the rainstorm mostly occurs in the central and southern parts and the mountainous areas with higher altitudes, presenting a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest and obvious regional differences. The heavy rainfall and the amount of rainstorm in the south area show a high probability than the north area with Hengshan as the boundary, among which the annual average rainstorm is more than 65 mm in Yuanqu, Wutaishan, and Yangcheng meteorological stations, and the number of cumulative rainstorm days is over 60 days. (3) The result of the assessment of rainstorm disaster risk shows that the comprehensive risk classification of rainstorm disaster in Shanxi Province shows a decreasing trend from south to north. The northeast of the Yuncheng Basin belongs to the high-risk area, while the northeast and northwest of Shanxi Province belong to the low-risk area. The rest belong to the medium-risk and the sub-high-risk areas.

Key words: rainstorm, wavelet analysis, spatiotemporal distribution, disaster risk assessment, Shanxi Province

LI Lele, CHAO Jinlong, ZHAO Deyi, LI Haojie, WU Lindong, LI Jiajun. Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of rainstorm and risk assessment of rainstorm disasters in Shanxi Province from 1957 to 2019[J].Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(5): 689-699.

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准则层	致灾因子	孕灾环境	承灾体	防灾减灾能力	权重值 /%
致灾因子	1	4	5	7	58.098
孕灾环境	1/4	1	3	5	24.290
承灾体	1/5	1/3	1	3	12.011
防灾减灾能力	1/7	1/5	1/3	1	5.601
λ_max=4.180，CI=0.060，RI=0.890，CR=0.067<0.1

致灾因子	年均降雨量	年均暴雨日数	日最大降雨量	权重值/%
年均降雨量	1	1/7	1/3	8.331
年均暴雨日数	7	1	5	72.351
日最大降雨量	3	1/5	1	19.319
λ_max=3.066，CI=0.033，RI=0.520，CR=0.063<0.1

孕灾环境	海拔高程	地形坡度	河网密度	权重值/%
海拔高程	1	1/2	1/3	16.378
地形坡度	2	1	1/2	29.726
河网密度	3	2	1	53.896
λ_max=3.009，CI=0.005，RI=0.520，CR=0.009<0.1

承灾体	人口密度	地均GDP	耕地面积比	权重值/%
人口密度	1	2	3	53.896
地均GDP	1/2	1	2	29.726
耕地面积比	1/3	1/2	1	16.378
λ_max=3.009，CI=0.005，RI=0.520，CR=0.009<0.1

防灾减灾能力	人均GDP	权重值/%
人均GDP	1	100
λ_max=0，CI=RI=0

Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of rainstorm and risk assessment of rainstorm disasters in Shanxi Province from 1957 to 2019

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目标层	准则层	准则层权重值/%	指标层	指标层权重值/%
暴雨灾害风险评估	致灾因子	58.098	年均降雨量/mm	8.331
			年均暴雨日数/d	72.351
			日最大降雨量/mm	19.319
	孕灾环境	24.290	海拔高程/m	16.378
			地形坡度/(°)	29.726
			河网密度/%	53.896
	承灾体	12.011	人口密度/人·km^-2	53.896
			地均GDP/10⁴元	29.726
			耕地面积比/%	16.378
	防灾减灾能力	5.601	人均GDP/元	100.000

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