人类活动及气候变化影响下伊犁河谷生境质量预测研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2023.275

Abstract

Abstract:

Habitat quality is critical for ecosystem service function and overall health. Accurate prediction of its evolution is essential for fostering high-quality regional ecosystem development. This study employed the system dynamic patch-generating land use simulation (SD-PLUS) model and the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model to forecast land pattern changes, and evaluate the spatial-temporal evolution of habitat quality in the Ili River Valley under diverse 2035 climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). The findings are as follows: (1) From 1980 to 2020, Ili River Valley land use exhibited a “four increase and two decrease” trend. In 2035, under the four climate scenarios, forest and grassland areas in the Ili River Valley will decrease, with a noticeable trend of construction land expansion, leading to the displacement of high-quality arable land in the suburbs. (2) Habitat quality in the Ili River Valley correlates closely with land use/cover type. High- and higher-value habitat areas are primarily scattered in rugged forest and grassland cover areas. Low- and lower-value areas are mainly concentrated in areas with concentrated human activities and unused land cover areas in the north and south Tianshan Mountains. (3) From 1980 to 2020, the habitat quality in the Ili River Valley exhibited a declining trend, particularly in areas near the Ili-Kunes River and Tekes River Basins. (4) The habitat index of the Ili River Valley is projected to decrease under the four climate scenarios in 2035, with the mean value following the order: SSP1-2.6>SSP2-4.5>SSP3-7.0>SSP5-8.5. Notably, habitat quality in Yining City, border ports, and agricultural and livestock bases is at risk of degradation. In conclusion, the results of this study provide valuable insights for developing ecological restoration policies in the Ili River Valley region and offer innovative ideas for predicting habitat quality in arid and semi-arid areas.

Key words: habitat quality, climate change scenarios, SD-PLUS model, InVEST model, Ili River Valley

SUI Lu, YAN Zhiming, LI Kaifang, HE Peien, MA Yingjie, ZHANG Rucui. Prediction of habitat quality in the Ili River Valley under the influence of human activities and climate change[J].Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(1): 104-116.

Figures/Tables 13

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

Fig. 3

Tab. 5

Fig. 4

Tab. 6

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

References 33

[1]	陈艳, 吴睿, 马月伟, 等. 典型喀斯特地区生境质量的时空分异与模拟研究[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2022, 38(12): 1593-1603.
	[Chen Yan, Wu Rui, Ma Yuewei, et al. Spatial and temporal differentiation and simulation of habitat quality in typical karst areas[J]. Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment, 2022, 38(12): 1593-1603.]
[2]	喻忠磊, 张文新, 梁进社, 等. 国土空间开发建设适宜性评价研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2015, 34(9): 1107-1122. doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2015.09.004
	[Yu Zhonglei, Zhang Wenxin, Liang Jinshe, et al. Progress in evaluating suitability of spatial development and construction land[J]. Progress in Geography, 2015, 34(9): 1107-1122.] doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2015.09.004
[3]	王超, 常勇, 侯西勇, 等. 基于土地利用格局变化的胶东半岛生境质量时空演变特征研究[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2021, 23(10): 1809-1822. doi: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2021.190545
	[Wang Chao, Chang Yong, Hou Xiyong, et al. Temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of habitat quality in Jiaodong Peninsula based on changes of land use pattern[J]. Journal of Geo-information Science, 2021, 23(10): 1809-1822.] doi: 10.12082/dqxxkx.2021.190545
[4]	张晓璐, 王晓欣, 华丽娟, 等. 新疆温度和降水变化的CMIP6模式预估[J]. 大气科学, 2023, 47(2): 387-398.
	[Zhang Xiaolu, Wang Xiaoxin, Hua Lijuan, et al. Projections of temperature and precipitation over Xinjiang based on CMIP6 models[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2023, 47(2): 387-398.]
[5]	陈竹安, 刘子强, 张立亭, 等. 南昌市LUCC多情景模拟和生境质量时空演变与预测[J]. 农业机械学报, 2023, 54(5): 170-180.
	[Chen Zhu’an, Liu Ziqiang, Zhang Liting, et al. Multi-scenario simulation of LUCC and spatio-temporal evolution and prediction of habitat quality in Nanchang[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery, 2023, 54(5): 170-180.]
[6]	冀泳帆, 贾鲁净, 杨联安, 等. 耦合InVEST-PLUS模型的榆林市生境质量时空演变及预测分析[J]. 水土保持学报, 2023, 37(1): 123-132.
	[Ji Yongfan, Jia Lujing, Yang Lian’an, et al. Spatio-temporal evolution and prediction analysis of habitat ouality in Yulin City coupled with InVEST-PLUS model[J]. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 2023, 37(1): 123-132.]
[7]	冯文彬, 林媚珍, 龚建周, 等. 基于FLUS-InVEST模型的中山市生境质量时空分异特征[J]. 生态科学, 2022, 41(3): 16-23.
	[Feng Wenbin, Lin Meizhen, Gong Jianzhou, et al. Spatiotemporal differentiation of habitat quality in Zhongshan City based on FLUS-InVEST model[J]. Ecological Science, 2022, 41(3): 16-23.]
[8]	胡丰, 张艳, 郭宇, 等. 基于PLUS和InVEST模型的渭河流域土地利用与生境质量时空变化及预测[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(4): 1125-1136.
	[Hu Feng, Zhang Yan, Guo Yu, et al. Spatial and temporal changes in land use and habitat quality in the Weihe River Basin based on the PLUS and InVEST models and predictions[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(4): 1125-1136.]
[9]	唐娇娇, 余成, 张委伟, 等. 基于CLUE-S和InVEST模型的苏州市生境质量评估及预测[J]. 环境工程技术学报, 2023, 13(1): 377-385.
	[Tang Jiaojiao, Yu Cheng, Zhang Weiwei, et al. Habitat quality assessment and prediction in Suzhou based on CLUE-S and InVEST models[J]. Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology, 2023, 13(1): 377-385.]
[10]	万辛如, 程超源, 白德凤, 等. 气候变化的生态影响及适应对策[J]. 中国科学院院刊, 2023, 38(3): 518-527.
	[Wan Xinru, Cheng Chaoyuan, Bai Defeng, et al. Ecological impacts of climate change and adaption strategies[J]. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2023, 38(3): 518-527.]
[11]	隋露, 蒲春玲, 刘志有, 等. 基于PLUS模型的乌鲁木齐市生态服务价值权衡协同探究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(1): 159-168.
	[Sui Lu, Pu Chunling, Liu Zhiyou, et al. Trade-off synergy of ecosystem service value in Urumqi City based on PLUS model[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(1): 159-168.]
[12]	Wang Z Y, Li X, Mao Y T, et al. Dynamic simulation of land use change and assessment of carbon storage based on climate change scenarios at the city level: A case study of Bortala, China[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2022, 134: 108499, doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108499.
[13]	胡烨婷, 李天宏. 基于SD-CA模型的快速城市化地区土地利用空间格局变化预测[J]. 北京大学学报(自然科学版), 2022, 58(2): 372-382.
	[Hu Yeting, Li Tianhong. Forecasting spatial pattern of land use change in rapidly urbanized regions based on SD-CA model[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2022, 58(2): 372-382.]
[14]	Wu J, Luo J, Zhang H, et al. Projections of land use change and habitat quality assessment by coupling climate change and development patterns[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2022, 847: 157491, doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157491.
[15]	崔文兵, 侯国博, 陈万基, 等. 基于多情景模拟的伊犁河谷土地利用景观格局分析[J]. 水利水电技术, 2023, 54(9): 1-12.
	[Cui Wen- bing, Hou Guobo, Chen Wanji, et al. Landscape pattern analysis of land use in Yili River Valley based on multi-scenario simulation[J]. Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, 2023, 54(9): 1-12.
[16]	陈月娇, 李祥, 王月健, 等. 尺度整合视角下伊犁河谷地区生态安全格局构建——以昭苏县为例[J]. 生态学报, 2023, 43(19): 1-12. doi: 10.1016/j.chnaes.2021.07.007
	[Chen Yuejiao, Li Xiang, Wang Yuejian, et al. Construction of ecological security pattern in Ili River Valley from the perspective of scale integration: A case study of Zhaosu County[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2023, 43(19): 1-12.] doi: 10.1016/j.chnaes.2021.07.007
[17]	刘天弋, 孙慧兰, 卢宝宝, 等. 1998—2018年新疆伊犁河谷植被覆盖度时空变化及驱动力[J]. 东北林业大学学报, 2023, 51(4): 68-74, 79.
	[Liu Tianyi, Sun Huilan, Lu Baobao, et al. Spatial-temporal variation and driving force analysis of vegetation coverage in the Ili River Valley of Xinjiang from 1998 to 2018[J]. Journal of Northeast Forestry University, 2023, 51(4): 68-74, 79.]
[18]	史名杰, 武红旗, 贾宏涛, 等. 基于MCE-CA-Markov和InVEST模型的伊犁谷地碳储量时空演变及预测[J]. 农业资源与环境学报, 2021, 38(6): 1010-1019.
	[Shi Mingjie, Wu Hongqi, Jia Hongtao, et al. Temporal and spatial evolution and prediction of carbon stocks in Yili Valley based on MCE-CA-Markov and InVEST models[J]. Journal of Agricultural Resources and Environment, 2021, 38(6): 1010-1019.]
[19]	姜彤, 苏布达, 王艳君, 等. 共享社会经济路径(SSPs)人口和经济格点化数据集[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(3): 381-383.
	[Jiang Tong, Su Buda, Wang Yanjun, et al. Gridded datasets for population and economy under shared socioeconomic pathways for 2020—2100[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(3): 381-383.]
[20]	Wang K C, Wang C, Cai W J, et al. Projected provincial urbanization rate for China[J]. Scientific Data, 2020, 83(7): 421, doi: 10.1038/s41597-020-0421-y.
[21]	田贺, 梁迅, 黎夏, 等. 基于SD模型的中国2010—2050年土地利用变化情景模拟[J]. 热带地理, 2017, 37(3): 547-561.
	[Tian He, Liang Xun, Li Xia, et al. Simulating multiple land use scenarios in China during 2010—2050 based on system dynamic model[J]. Tropical Geography, 2017, 37(3): 547-561.]
[22]	Zhang P, Liu L, Yang L W, et al. Exploring the response of ecosystem service value to land use changes under multiple scenarios coupling a mixed-cell cellular automata model and system dynamics model in Xi’an, China[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2023, 147: 110009, doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110009.
[23]	Liang X, Guan Q, Clarke K C, et al. Understanding the drivers of sustainable land expansion using a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model: A case study in Wuhan, China[J]. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, Pergamon, 2021, 85: 101569, doi: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2020.101569.
[24]	Li C, Wu Y, Gao B, et al. Multi-scenario simulation of ecosystem service value for optimization of land use in the Sichuan-Yunnan ecological barrier, China[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2021, 132: 108328, doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.0108328.
[25]	周嘉月, 卢麾, 阳坤, 等. 基于CMIP6的中高温升情景对中国未来径流的预估[J]. 中国科学: 地球科学, 2023, 53(3): 505-524.
	[Zhou Jiayue, Lu Hui, Yang Kun, et al. Projection of China’s future runoff based on the CMIP6 mid-high warming scenarios[J]. Science China Earth Sciences, 2023, 53(3): 505-524.]
[26]	孟雅丽, 段克勤, 尚溦, 等. 基于CMIP6模式数据的1961—2100年青藏高原地表气温时空变化分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2022, 44(1): 24-33. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2022.0017
	[Meng Yali, Duan Keqin, Shang Wei, et al. Analysis on spatiotemporal variations of near-surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2100 based on CMIP6 models’ data[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2022, 44(1): 24-33.] doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2022.0017
[27]	雷金睿, 陈毅青, 陈宗铸, 等. 基于InVEST模型的海南岛三大流域生境质量时空演变[J]. 应用生态学, 2022, 33(9): 2511-2520. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202209.019
	[Lei Jinrui, Chen Yiqing, Chen Zongzhu, et al. Spatiotemporal evolution of habitat quality in three basins of Hainan Island based on InVEST model[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2022, 33(9): 2511-2520.] doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202209.019
[28]	朱增云, 阿里木江·卡斯木. 基于地理探测器的伊犁谷地生境质量时空演变及其影响因素[J]. 生态学杂, 2020, 39(10): 3408-3420. doi: 10.13292/j.1000-4890.202010.009
	[Zhu Zengyun, Kasimu Alimujiang. Spatial-temporal evolution of habitat quality in Yili Valley based on geographical detector and its influencing factors[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2020, 39(10): 3408-3420.] doi: 10.13292/j.1000-4890.202010.009
[29]	程静, 王鹏, 陈红翔, 等. 渭河流域生境质量时空演变及其地形梯度效应与影响因素[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(3): 481-491.
	[Cheng Jing, Wang Peng, Chen Hongxiang, et al. Spatiotemporal evolution of habitat quality in the Weihe River Basin and its topographic gradient effects and influencing factors[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(3): 481-491.]
[30]	杨志鹏, 王士君, 田俊峰, 等. 东北三省县域开发强度与生境质量的空间关系研究[J]. 地理与地理信息科学, 2022, 38(3): 83-90.
	[Yang Zhipeng, Wang Shijun, Tian Junfeng, et al. Spatial relationship between county development intensity and habitat quality in the three provinces of northeast China[J]. Geography and Geo-information Science, 2022, 38(3): 83-90.]
[31]	闫俊杰, 刘海军, 崔东, 等. 近15年新疆伊犁河谷草地退化时空变化特征[J]. 草业科学, 2018, 35(3): 508-520.
	[Yan Junjie, Liu Haijun, Cui Dong, et al. Spatiotemporal dynamics of grassland degradation in Yili Valley of Xinjiang over the last 15 years[J]. Pratacultural Science, 2018, 35(3): 508-520.]
[32]	贾磊, 姚顺波, 邓元杰, 等. 2000—2020年陕西秦巴山区生境质量时空演变及其地形梯度效应[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2022, 31(2): 398-413.
	[Jia Lei, Yao Shunbo, Deng Yuanjie, et al. Temporal and spatial evolution of habitat quality and its topographic gradient effect in Qinling-Daba Mountain area, Shaanxi Province, 2000—2020[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2022, 31(2): 398-413.]
[33]	刘长雨, 杨洁, 谢保鹏, 等. 黄河流域甘青段生境质量时空特征及其地形梯度效应[J]. 农业资源与环境学报, 2023, 40(2): 372-383.
	[Liu Changyu, Yang Jie, Xie Baopeng, et al. Temporal and spatial characteristics of habitat quality and its topographic gradient effect in the Gansu-Qinghai section of the Yellow River Basin[J]. Journal of Agricultural Resources and Environment, 2023, 40(2): 372-383.]

情景	辐射强迫类型	发展路径	2100年辐射强迫/W·m^-2	情景描述
SSP1-2.6	低	可持续发展	2.6	低脆弱性、减缓压力和低辐射强迫
SSP2-4.5	中	中度发展	4.5	中等社会脆弱性和中等辐射强迫
SSP3-7.0	高	局部发展	7.0	相对较高的社会脆弱性与人为辐射强迫
SSP5-8.5	高	常规发展	8.5	传统化石燃料为主的高排放和高辐射

威胁因子	影响距离/km	权重	衰退类型
耕地	2	0.2	线性
建设用地	8	1.0	指数
未利用地	3	0.4	线性
铁路	6	0.6	线性
高速公路	5	0.5	线性

地类	生境适宜性	敏感度
地类	生境适宜性	耕地	建设用地	未利用地	铁路	高速公路
耕地	0.4	0.2	0.9	0.4	0.5	0.5
林地	1.0	0.5	0.8	0.2	0.9	0.8
草地	0.9	0.2	0.5	0.3	0.7	0.7
水域	1.0	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.8	0.7
建设用地	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
未利用地	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.1

变量	年份	实际数据	模拟结果	相对误差/%
总人口/10⁴人	2020	284.84	284.96	0.04
GDP/10⁸元	2020	1266.01	1263.77	-0.18
耕地/km²	2020	9080.26	9039.17	-0.45
林地/km²	2020	3594.13	3609.76	0.43
草地/km²	2020	34156.11	34163.80	0.02
水域/km²	2020	1359.88	1359.89	0.00
建设用地/km²	2020	920.30	900.27	-2.18

年份	土地类型	1980年							转出面积/km²	转出比例%
年份	土地类型	耕地/km²	林地/km²	草地/km²	水域/km²	建设用地/km²	未利用地/km²	各地类面积/km²	转出面积/km²	转出比例%
2020年	耕地	5371.26	16.01	534.11	67.97	295.04	2.56	6286.95	915.69	15.26
	林地	73.95	3408.18	286.50	33.08	3.69	19.80	3825.20	417.02	6.95
	草地	3516.12	160.17	33193.81	153.43	202.37	255.03	37480.93	4287.12	71.42
	水域	6.22	5.29	71.69	1093.54	0.54	98.90	1276.18	182.64	3.04
	建设用地	84.86	0.46	30.47	2.84	417.91	0.02	536.56	118.65	1.98
	未利用地	27.84	4.02	39.53	9.02	0.76	5829.17	5910.34	81.17	1.35
	各地类面积	9080.25	3594.13	34156.11	1359.88	920.31	6205.48	55316.16	6002.29	100.00

Prediction of habitat quality in the Ili River Valley under the influence of human activities and climate change

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 13

References 33

Related Articles 11

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

年份	情景	生境指数均值	生境等级面积占比/%
年份	情景	生境指数均值	低值区	较低值区	较高值区	高值区
1980		0.7581	11.65	11.37	67.76	9.22
1990		0.7398	12.40	13.51	64.83	9.27
2000		0.7331	12.56	14.52	64.11	8.81
2010		0.7216	12.63	15.82	62.62	8.93
2020		0.7209	12.88	16.42	61.76	8.94
2035	SSP1-2.6	0.7204	12.92	16.49	61.46	9.14
2035	SSP2-4.5	0.7141	13.98	15.91	61.17	8.94
2035	SSP3-7.0	0.7115	14.31	15.91	60.87	8.91
2035	SSP5-8.5	0.7068	15.24	15.16	61.46	8.14

[1]	YUAN Hongwei, CAI Jun, ZHANG Lei. Temporal and spatial changes of human activities and habitat quality in national key ecological function areas and their spatial effects [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(6): 934-948.
[2]	CHENG Jing,WANG Peng,CHEN Hongxiang,HAN Yonggui. Spatiotemporal evolution of habitat quality in the Weihe River Basin and its topographic gradient effects and influencing factors [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(3): 481-491.
[3]	ZHAI Yuxin, ZHANG Feiyun, MA Lina. Evolution and prediction of habitat quality in the Bosten Lake Basin based on production-living-ecological space [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(11): 1792-1802.
[4]	BAO Yubin,HUANG Tao,WANG Yaozong,HU Sheng,LYU Lintao,TANG Yijuan,GU Jisheng. Zoning for ecological conservation and restoration in Liupan Mountain area based on ecological importance and sensitivity evaluation [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(11): 1778-1791.
[5]	HU Feng,ZHANG Yan,GUO Yu,ZHANG Panpan,LYU Shuai,ZHANG Changchun. Spatial and temporal changes in land use and habitat quality in the Weihe River Basin based on the PLUS and InVEST models and predictions [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(4): 1125-1136.
[6]	SUN Guo-jun, LI Wei-hong, ZHU Cheng-gang, CUI dong, LIU Hai-jun. Spatial-temporal characteristics of vegetation cover in Ili River Valley from 2000 to 2015 [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(6): 1551-1558.
[7]	ZHENG Xu, WEI Le-min, GUO Jian-jun, ZHOU Yan-yan, CHEN Guan-guang, YUE Dong-xia. Driving force analysis of water yield in inland river basins of arid areas based on geo-detectors: A case of the Shule River [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(6): 1477-1485.
[8]	FENG Yan-wei, ZHEN Jiang-hong, MA Chen-yang. Spatiotemporal response of habitat quality to urban expansion in Hohhot City [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(4): 1014-1022.
[9]	LUAN Fu-ming, WANG Fang, XIONG Hei-gang. Spatio-temporal distribution of cultural sites and geographic backgrounds in the Ili River Valley [J]. , 2017, 40(1): 211-221.
[10]	YAN Jun-jie，QIAO Mu，ZHOU Hong-fei，ZHOU Sheng-bin，LU Lei，SONG Peng. Vegetation dynamics in Ili River valley of Xinjiang based on MODIS/NDVI [J]. , 2013, 36(3): 512-519.
[11]	LI Ying-ying，LIU Kang，HU Sheng，WU Lei. Water conservation function of Ziwuling Ecological Area in Shaanxi Province [J]. , 2008, 38(3): 636-642.