甘肃省新型城镇化与生态安全耦合协同及其驱动因素非平稳性

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.686

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 甘肃省在国家生态建设中具有举足轻重的战略地位，探讨甘肃省新型城镇化与生态安全状态间的耦合协同及其驱动因素，对于筑牢西北地区乃至全国的生态安全屏障意义重大。以甘肃省14个市州为研究区，基于“人口-经济-社会-空间”（PESS）模型和“驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应-管理”（DPSIRM）模型分别构建新型城镇化与生态安全评估指标体系，使用耦合协调模型分析二者耦合协同发展趋势，并采用地理探测器与时空地理加权回归（GTWR）模型揭示主要驱动因子及其时空非平稳性。结果表明：（1）2012—2021年甘肃省新型城镇化指数由0.213上升至0.328，属较低水平，生态安全指数提高0.099，由低度安全提升至中度安全。（2）2012—2021年甘肃省新型城镇化与生态安全耦合协调度由0.527上升至0.628，协同状态由勉强协调转变为初级协调，呈“南北低、中部高”的空间分布特征。（3）固定资产投资、第二产业从业人数、城镇人口密度、人均GDP和第二产业占GDP比重为二者协同的主要驱动力。（4）主要驱动因素在时间和空间尺度上均表现出非平稳性，驱动方向和强度均存在差异。研究结果可为推进甘肃省新型城镇化，维护区域生态安全提供决策参考。

关键词: 生态安全, 新型城镇化, 耦合协同, 非平稳性, 驱动因子

Abstract:

Gansu Province plays a pivotal role in China’s ecological construction. Therefore, exploring the coupling synergy between new urbanization and ecological security status in Gansu Province and its driving factors is of great significance for developing a robust ecological security barrier in northwest China and across the whole country. Based on the “population-economy-society-space” and “driving force-pressure-state-impact-response-management” models, this study constructed index systems for assessing new urbanization and ecological safety in the 14 municipalities (prefectures) of Gansu Province. A coupled coordination model was employed to analyze the development trends of the two synergies, and Geodetector and a spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression model were used to identify the main drivers and their spatiotemporal non-stationarity. The following results were obtained: (1) From 2012 to 2021, the index of new urbanization in Gansu Province grew from 0.213 to 0.328, a relatively low level of growth, and the index of ecological security increased by 0.099, from a low level of security to a moderate one. (2) From 2012 to 2021, the degree of coupling synergy of new urbanization and ecological security in Gansu Province increased from 0.527 to 0.628, and the synergistic status changed from barely to primary coordinated, reflecting the characteristic spatial distribution of “low in the north and south, and high in the middle”. (3) Fixed assets investments, the number of employees in secondary industries, urban population density, per capita gross domestic product (GDP), and the proportion of secondary industries in the GDP were the main driving forces for the synergy. (4) These driving factors showed non-stationarity in temporal and spatial scales, with differences in direction and intensity. The results can provide a reference for decision-makers aiming to promote new urbanization in Gansu Province and maintaining regional ecological security.

Key words: ecological security, new urbanization, coupling coordination, non-stationarity, driving factors

许静, 杨斌. 甘肃省新型城镇化与生态安全耦合协同及其驱动因素非平稳性[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(8): 1432-1444.

XU Jing, YANG Bin. Coupling coordination of new urbanization and ecological security and spatial-temporal non-stationarity of its driving factors in Gansu Province[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(8): 1432-1444.

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要素层	指标层	方向	权重
人口	城镇人口比重/%	+	0.062
	城镇新增就业人员/人	+	0.079
	第二产业从业人数/10⁴人	+	0.100
	第三产业从业人数/10⁴人	+	0.087
经济	人均GDP/元	+	0.091
	GDP增长率/%	+	0.004
	固定资产投资/10⁴元	+	0.093
社会	人均拥有道路面积/m²	+	0.040
	公共图书馆藏书量/10⁴册	+	0.032
	卫生机构床位数/张	+	0.068
	供水普及率/%	+	0.008
	燃气普及率/%	+	0.020
空间	建成区面积/km²	+	0.129
	建成区供水管道密度/km·km^-2	+	0.054
	建成区排水管道密度/km·km^-2	+	0.066
	建成区路网密度/km·km^-2	+	0.038
	建成区道路面积率/%	+	0.029

要素层	指标层	方向	权重
驱动力	城镇人口密度/人·km^-2	-	0.048
	城镇化率/%	-	0.045
	第二产业增加值占GDP比重/%	-	0.025
	年降水量/mm	+	0.072
	年均气温/℃	+	0.070
压力	工业烟粉尘排放量/t	-	0.011
	工业SO₂排放量/t	-	0.020
	工业废水排放量/10⁴t	-	0.003
	工业固体废弃物产生量/10⁴t	-	0.019
	农药、化肥施用量/10⁴t	-	0.026
状态	归一化植被指数	+	0.071
	每日人均生活用水量/L	-	0.031
	人均公园绿地面积/m²	+	0.096
	粮食综合生产能力/10⁴t	+	0.047
	生活垃圾无害化处理率/%	+	0.012
影响	第三产业占GDP比重/%	+	0.030
	建成区绿化面积/hm²	+	0.168
	人均农业机械总动力/kW	+	0.049
响应	城市污水处理率/%	+	0.014
	一般工业固体废物综合利用率/%	+	0.043
	畜禽粪污综合利用率/%	+	0.035
管理	建成区绿化覆盖率/%	+	0.029
	建成区绿地率/%	+	0.038

区间	新型城镇化	生态安全
（0.0, 0.2）	低水平	不安全
[0.2, 0.4）	较低水平	低度安全
[0.4, 0.6）	中等水平	中度安全
[0.6, 0.8）	较高水平	高度安全
[0.8, 1.0]	高水平	极高度安全

区间	等级	含义	区间	等级	含义
[0.000, 0.100）	Ⅰ	极度失调	[0.500, 0.600）	Ⅵ	勉强协调
[0.100, 0.200）	Ⅱ	严重失调	[0.600, 0.700）	Ⅶ	初级协调
[0.200, 0.300）	Ⅲ	中度失调	[0.700, 0.800）	Ⅷ	中级协调
[0.300, 0.400）	Ⅳ	轻度失调	[0.800, 0.900）	Ⅸ	良好协调
[0.400, 0.500）	Ⅴ	濒临失调	[0.900, 1.000]	Ⅹ	优质协调

综合发展指数	2012年	2013年	2014年	2015年	2016年	2017年	2018年	2019年	2020年	2021年
新型城镇化指数	0.213	0.238	0.250	0.257	0.267	0.270	0.263	0.304	0.314	0.328
生态安全指数	0.399	0.417	0.426	0.430	0.448	0.470	0.487	0.491	0.491	0.498