甘肃省自然灾害社会脆弱性评价与综合区划

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.628

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 降低社会脆弱性对于自然灾害风险防范具有重要意义。在县区单元尺度上，选取人口、经济与种植业3种承灾体，构建适合本区域的社会脆弱性评估指标体系，评价了甘肃省区域自然灾害社会脆弱性，包括暴露度、敏感度、适应度和综合社会脆弱性。然后基于自然地理区划范式，系统编制了甘肃省县区单元自然灾害社会脆弱性综合区划方案。结果表明：（1）甘肃省综合社会脆弱性指数基本呈现东高西低、南高北低的宏观格局。高脆弱性地区主要集中于陇东、陇中以及陇南区域，在城市及附近县区等承灾体密集区域呈现聚集特征。（2）综合区划方案包含两级：一级区为4个主导自然灾害类型分区，包括河西走廊西段沙尘暴主导灾害区、兰州旱灾主导灾害区、陇南暴雨洪水滑坡/泥石流主导灾害区、河西走廊及陇东-陇中-甘南多灾种灾害区。二级区为14个不同结构的综合脆弱性等级分区。该方案系统表达了区域主导自然灾害类型下，社会脆弱性结构的宏观空间分异规律，可服务于降低自然灾害社会脆弱性的多样化区域差异与需求。

关键词: 社会脆弱性, 自然灾害, 综合区划, 干旱地区, 甘肃省

Abstract:

It is very important to reduce regional social vulnerability to natural disasters and integrated risk governance. At the county and district unit scale, a social vulnerability assessment index system was constructed for three disaster-bearing bodies that would be suitable for Gansu Province: Population, economy and agriculture. The social vulnerability of natural disasters in Gansu Province was evaluated, including exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability. Then, based on the paradigm of natural geographic regionalization, a comprehensive social vulnerability regionalization was developed. The results show the following: (1) The comprehensive social vulnerability index in Gansu Province is generally high in the east, low in the west, high in the south, and low in the north. High-vulnerability areas are mainly concentrated in the eastern, central, and southern regions of Gansu, and they cluster in densely populated disaster-prone areas, such as cities and nearby counties. (2) Comprehensive regionalization includes two levels: The first level is divided into four leading natural disaster types, including sandstorm-leading disaster areas in the western section of the Hexi Corridor, the Lanzhou drought-leading disaster area, the southern Gansu rainstorm flood landslide/debris flow-leading disaster area, the central-eastern Hexi Corridor, and east, central, and southern Gansu multihazard disaster areas. Secondary-level zones include 14 comprehensive vulnerability level zones with different structures. The regionalization scheme systematiclly expresses macrospatial differentiation in social vulnerability structures under regionally dominant natural disaster types that can serve diverse regional differences and help reduce social vulnerability to natural disasters.

Key words: social vulnerability, natural disaster, comprehensive regionalization, arid region, Gansu Province

余瀚, 孟志华, 王静爱. 甘肃省自然灾害社会脆弱性评价与综合区划[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(8): 1421-1431.

YU Han, MENG Zhihua, WANG Jing’ai. Comprehensive assessment and regionalization of social vulnerability for natural disasters in Gansu Province[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(8): 1421-1431.

图/表 9

表1

表2

区域自然灾害社会脆弱性评价指标体系"

标准层	要素层	指标层	影响方向	指标释义	指标权重
暴露度	人口暴露度	常住人口	正向	潜在暴露于区域自然灾害人口规模	0.0648
	经济暴露度	GDP总量	正向	潜在暴露于区域自然灾害经济规模	0.0545
	种植业暴露度	播种面积	正向	潜在暴露于自然灾害农业承灾体规模	0.0612
	成灾暴露度	灾次	正向	实际暴露于自然灾害的次数	0.0562
	成灾暴露度	灾种多样性指数	正向	实际暴露于自然灾害的复杂程度	0.0121
敏感度	人口敏感度	人口密度	正向	空间上人口对于区域自然灾害敏感程度	0.0465
	人口敏感度	人口负担系数	正向	儿童与老年人口作为敏感人群的比重	0.0573
	经济敏感度	GDP密度	正向	空间上经济对于区域自然灾害敏感程度	0.0447
	经济敏感度	第一产业增加值占二产增加值比重	正向	一产易受自然灾害（旱灾）影响，对二产占比反映区域内经济相对敏感度	0.0580
	种植业敏感性	种植业产值密度	正向	种植业在空间上易受损的可能性参数	0.0658
	种植业敏感性	种植业占农林牧渔产值比重	正向	种植业对于区域农业的重要程度	0.0286
适应度	人口适应度	初中以上学历人口比例	负向	人口灾害认知与应对水平的替代指标	0.0643
		居民家庭人均可支配收入	负向	家庭应对灾害设施及其数量的替代指标	0.0587
		洗澡设施户数比例	负向	家庭经济状况替代指标	0.0527
		万人医疗床位数	负向	应对灾害健康保障水平的替代指标	0.0623
	经济适应度	产业产值多样化指数	负向	应对灾害经济的潜在恢复能力	0.0279
		地方政府财政负债率	正向	救灾投入潜在资源限制的替代指标	0.0110
		人均一般公共预算收入	负向	救灾投入潜在资源的替代指标	0.0561
	种植业适应度	作物种植面积多样性指数	负向	应对灾害种植业的潜在恢复能力	0.0066
		农业机械总动力密度	负向	农业应对灾害设施及数量的替代指标	0.0575
		灌溉面积占耕地比例	负向	农业应对灾害设施及数量的替代指标	0.0523

表2

图1

表3

图2

图3

图4

表4

图5

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类别	数据名称	数据内容	时空精度
人口承灾体	第七次人口普查分县资料	人口数量、年龄结构、学历结构、住房设施	2020年/矢量/县区单元
人口承灾体	人口适应-医疗设施	医疗床位数	2019年/矢量/县区单元
经济承灾体	经济承灾体相关指标	GDP、三次产业产值、人均可支配收入、一般公共预算收入	2019年/矢量/县区单元
经济承灾体	经济适应-财政负债	地方政府财政负债率	2019年/矢量/县区单元
种植业承灾体	种植业承灾体相关指标	播种面积、种植业产值、农林牧渔总产值、农业机械总动力、灌溉面积	2019年/矢量/县区单元
区域灾害数据	中国省级报刊灾害数据库	成灾灾害种类、起止时间、灾情	1949—2014年/矢量/县区单元
辅助数据	GlobalLand30全球地表覆盖	2020年甘肃省地表覆盖类型	2020年/栅格/30 m×30 m
辅助数据	甘肃省基础地理信息数据	甘肃省市、县行政区划	矢量

等级	暴露度	敏感度	适应度	综合脆弱性
高	8.0	3.4	44.0	6.5
较高	11.7	23.1	15.4	20.5
中	38.1	29.7	4.3	29.9
较低	17.2	10.6	16.7	17.8
低	25.0	33.2	19.6	25.3