宁夏沿黄城市群新型城镇化与低碳发展的耦合交互研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.102

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 研究新型城镇化与低碳发展耦合互动关系，为实现新型城镇化转型，推动“碳减排”和促进区域高质量发展提供支撑。基于2012—2022年宁夏沿黄城市群的面板数据，运用修正的耦合协调模型、面板向量自回归模型（PVAR）和Tobit模型探讨了宁夏沿黄城市群新型城镇化与低碳发展的耦合协调时空演化、互动响应关系及影响因素。结果表明：（1）宁夏沿黄城市群各城市新型城镇化与低碳发展耦合协调度持续向好发展，且逐渐形成“一极多核”的空间格局。（2）新型城镇化与低碳发展存在长期均衡关系，但二者互动程度较低，且新型城镇化对低碳发展的促进作用优于低碳发展对新型城镇化的作用。（3）城镇化水平、环境治理等因素有助于新型城镇化与低碳发展耦合协调度的提升，而工业化水平则成为阻碍二者良性协调发展的关键因素。

关键词: 新型城镇化, 低碳发展, 耦合协调, 互动响应, 宁夏沿黄城市群

Abstract:

This study aims to examine the coupling of and interactions between new-type urbanization and low-carbon development to support the realization of the transformation of new urbanization, promoting the reduction of carbon emissions and fostering regional high-quality development. Using panel data from Ningxia urban agglomeration along the Yellow River from 2012 to 2022, this study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution of the coupling and coordination and interactive response relationship between new-type urbanization and low-carbon development and their influencing factors. It integrates the modified coupling and coordination model, the panel vector autoregression model, and the Tobit model. The following results are obtained: (1) The coupling coordination between new-type urbanization and low-carbon development in Ningxia urban agglomeration along the Yellow River continues to develop well, and it is gradually forming a spatial pattern of “one pole and many nuclei”. (2) There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between new-type urbanization and low-carbon development; however, the degree of interaction is relatively low. New-type urbanization has stronger promotive effects on low-carbon development than vice versa. (3) Factors such as urbanization and environmental governance contribute to improving coupling and coordination development, whereas the level of industrialization is a key obstacle to their coordinated development.

Key words: new-type urbanization, low-carbon development, coupling coordination, interactive response, Ningxia urban agglomeration along the Yellow River

周涛, 王亚娟, 刘小鹏. 宁夏沿黄城市群新型城镇化与低碳发展的耦合交互研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(8): 1457-1468.

ZHOU Tao, WANG Yajuan, LIU Xiaopeng. Coupling interaction study of new-type urbanization and low-carbon development in Ningxia urban agglomeration along the Yellow River[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(8): 1457-1468.

图/表 10

图1

表1

表2

耦合协调度类别划分标准"

区间	阶段	耦合协调度 $(D)$
协调发展	优质协调	0.9<D≤1.0
	良好协调	0.8<D≤0.9
	中级协调	0.7<D≤0.8
	初级协调	0.6<D≤0.7
过渡发展	勉强协调	0.5<D≤0.6
	濒临失调	0.4<D≤0.5
失调衰退	轻度失调	0.3<D≤0.4
	中度失调	0.3<D≤0.4
	中度失调	0.2<D≤0.3
	严重失调	0.2<D≤0.3
	严重失调	0.0<D≤0.2

表2

图2

图3

图4

表3

图5

表4

表5

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目标层	准则层	指标层	指标属性	权重
新型城镇化	经济城镇化	人均GDP/10⁴元	+	0.1512
		城乡人均可支配收入之比/%	-	0.0607
		第二产业增加值占GDP比重/%	-	0.0730
		第三产业增加值占GDP比重/%	+	0.0897
	社会城镇化	燃气普及率/%	+	0.0173
		每千人医疗机构床位数/张	+	0.1196
		建成区道路面积率/%	+	0.1293
	人口城镇化	城镇化率/%	+	0.0869
	人口城镇化	城市人口密度/人·km^-2	+	0.1244
	生态城镇化	人均公园绿化面积/km²	+	0.0367
		生活垃圾无害化处理率/%	+	0.0164
		污水处理率/%	+	0.0248
	土地城镇化	建成区绿化覆盖率/%	+	0.0078
	土地城镇化	城市建设用地面积占城区面积比重/%	+	0.0622
低碳发展	低碳驱动力	GDP增长率/%	+	0.0271
		人口自然增长率/%	-	0.1490
		万元GDP能耗/tce·(10⁴元)^-1	-	0.0381
	低碳压力	单位面积碳排放/t·km^-2	-	0.0942
		单位GDP碳排放/t·(10⁴元)^-1	-	0.0470
		人均碳排放/t·人^-1	-	0.0827
	低碳状态	PM_2.5浓度/µg·m^-3	-	0.1543
		单位工业产值工业烟粉尘排放量/t·(10⁴元)^-1	-	0.0399
		单位工业产值工业SO₂排放量/t·(10⁴元)^-1	-	0.0479
		单位工业产值工业废水排放量/t·(10⁴元)^-1	-	0.0290
	低碳影响	年最冷月气温变化率/%	-	0.0588
		年最热月气温变化率/%	-	0.0891
		年平均气温变化率/%	-	0.0700
	低碳响应	政府工作报告节能减排相关词频/次	+	0.0729

市县	2012年	2016年	2019年	2022年
银川市	0.571	0.692	0.796	0.695
贺兰县	0.297	0.536	0.589	0.608
永宁县	0.842	0.872	0.927	0.857
灵武市	0.728	1.186	1.049	1.242
石嘴山市	0.627	0.738	0.751	0.785
平罗县	0.568	0.610	0.736	0.617
吴忠市	0.654	0.879	0.824	0.654
青铜峡市	0.647	0.873	0.719	0.713
沙坡头区	0.603	0.715	0.719	0.656
中宁县	0.443	0.618	0.586	0.682
均值	0.598	0.772	0.770	0.751

期数	新型城镇化		低碳发展
期数	新型城镇化	低碳发展	新型城镇化	低碳发展
1	97.987	2.013	0.000	100.000
2	93.689	6.311	11.831	88.169
3	92.461	7.539	18.327	81.673
4	91.842	8.158	22.829	77.171
5	91.481	8.519	26.030	73.970
6	91.248	8.752	28.374	71.626
7	91.090	8.910	30.126	69.874
8	90.977	9.023	31.454	68.546
9	90.895	9.105	32.473	67.527
10	90.833	9.167	33.262	66.738

变量	回归系数	标准误	z统计量	P>\|z\|
经济发展水平	0.034^*	0.018	1.92	0.055
城镇化水平	0.292^***	0.058	5.02	0.000
工业化水平	-0.202^***	0.046	-4.35	0.000
政府能力	0.005	0.009	0.53	0.595
城市规模	0.093^***	0.026	3.51	0.000
环境治理	0.161^*	0.083	1.94	0.053