石羊河流域归一化植被指数变化及其驱动因子分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.036

干旱区地理 ›› 2024, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (10): 1735-1744.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.036 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2024036

石羊河流域归一化植被指数变化及其驱动因子分析

杨晓玲¹^,²(), 丁文魁¹(), 周华¹, 李岩瑛¹, 陈海贝³

1.武威国家气候观象台，甘肃武威 733099
2.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所，甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室，甘肃兰州 730020
3.甘肃省古浪县气象局，甘肃武威 733100

收稿日期:2024-01-17 修回日期:2024-02-29 出版日期:2024-10-25 发布日期:2024-11-27
通讯作者: 丁文魁（1970-），男，正高级工程师，主要从事气候变化与农业气象等方面的研究. E-mail: wwqxj.6150343@163.com
作者简介:杨晓玲（1971-），女，高级工程师，主要从事气候变化及生态农业等方面的研究. E-mail: wwqxj6150343@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(41975015);国家自然科学基金(41775107);国家自然科学基金(42175192);甘肃省气象局气象科研项目(人才专项)(GSMArc2019-02)

Normalized difference vegetation index change and its driving factors in Shiyang River Basin

YANG Xiaoling¹^,²(), DING Wenkui¹(), ZHOU Hua¹, LI Yanying¹, CHEN Haibei³

1. Wuwei National Climate Observation Platform, Wuwei 733099, Gansu, China
2. Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province/Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA, Institute of Arid Meteorology, CMA, Lanzhou 730020, Gansu, China
3. Gulang County Meteorological Bureau of Gansu Province, Wuwei 733100, Gansu, China

Received:2024-01-17 Revised:2024-02-29 Published:2024-10-25 Online:2024-11-27

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

石羊河流域土地荒漠化问题严重，生态环境十分脆弱。以石羊河流域2000—2020年逐月NASA GIMMS归一化植被指数（Normalized difference vegetation index，NDVI）、气温、降水量、日照时数和蒸发量等资料为基础，采用趋势斜率、累积距平和信噪比、相关系数、多元回归等方法，分析研究了石羊河流域的植被指数变化及驱动因子。结果表明：（1）受海拔高度、地形地貌和气候差异的影响，石羊河流域NDVI的空间分布为上游>全流域>中游>下游。（2）全流域及上、中游年NDVI呈明显增长趋势，下游呈轻微增长趋势，趋势斜率为上游>全流域>中游>下游，各季节NDVI也呈增长趋势，夏、秋、冬季基本为明显增长。全流域及上、中、下游年NDVI在2010年或2011年发生了突变。（3）影响石羊河流域NDVI变化的气候因子依次为降水量、气温、蒸发量、日照时数。石羊河流域NDVI变化是气候变化与人类活动共同驱动的结果，全流域及上游气候因子对NDVI的贡献率比人类活动大，中、下游气候因子和人类活动对NDVI贡献相当。突变后人类活动的贡献率比突变前明显增大，气候因子的贡献率相对削弱。研究结果可为石羊河流域植被恢复及生态环境保护提供科学依据。

关键词: NDVI, 趋势斜率, 驱动因子, 多元回归, 石羊河流域

Abstract:

The problem of land desertification is serious, and, in this regard, the ecological environment has shown great frailty in Shiyang River Basin, Gansu Province, China. Studying the driving factors of vegetation cover is thus of great significance for ecological environment protection in the river basin. Using monthly NASA GIMMS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), temperature, precipitation, sunshine, and evaporation data in Shiyang River Basin from 2000 to 2020, change characteristics and driving factors of NDVI were analyzed using trend slopes, cumulative distances and signal-to-noise ratios, correlation coefficients, and multiple regressions. The results were as follows: (1) The spatial distribution of NDVI in Shiyang River Basin followed the trend of upper reaches>whole river basin>middle reaches>lower reaches because of the influence of altitude, landform, and climate difference. (2) The annual NDVI showed an obviously increasing trend in the whole river basin and its upper and middle reaches, and a slightly increasing trend in the lower reaches. The slope trend followed upper reaches>whole river basin>middle reaches>lower reaches. The NDVI of four seasons also showed growth trends, with the slope trend being summer>autumn>winter>spring, with summer, autumn, and winter basically having significant growth. A mutation of the NDVI of whole river basin and its upper, middle, and lower reaches occurred in 2010 or 2011. (3) The climate factors that affected the NDVI change were precipitation, temperature, evaporation, and sunshine hours. In turn, temperature, precipitation, and evaporation positively contributed to NDVI, whereas sunshine duration had a negative contribution to NDVI. NDVI change was a result of combined climate change and human activities in Shiyang River Basin. The contribution of climate factors to NDVI was greater than that of human activities in the whole river basin and its upper reaches, whereas the contributions of climate factors and human activities to NDVI were equal in the middle and lower reaches. The contribution rate of human activities increased significantly after mutation, whereas the contribution rate of climate factors was relatively weakened. This study provides a scientific basis for vegetation restoration and ecological environment protection in Shiyang River Basin.

Key words: NDVI, trend slope, driving factor, multiple regression, Shiyang River Basin

杨晓玲, 丁文魁, 周华, 李岩瑛, 陈海贝. 石羊河流域归一化植被指数变化及其驱动因子分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(10): 1735-1744.

YANG Xiaoling, DING Wenkui, ZHOU Hua, LI Yanying, CHEN Haibei. Normalized difference vegetation index change and its driving factors in Shiyang River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(10): 1735-1744.

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等级	趋势斜率（a）/·a^-1
严重退化	a≤-0.0015
中度退化	-0.0015<a≤-0.0010
轻微退化	-0.0010<a≤-0.0005
基本不变	-0.0005<a≤0.0005
轻微增长	0.0005<a≤0.0010
中度增长	0.0010<a≤0.0015
明显增长	a>0.0015

季节	指标	全流域	上游	中游	下游
春季	多年均值	0.1610	0.1964	0.1629	0.0864
	趋势斜率/·a^-1	0.0013	0.0023	0.0008	0.0004
	增长等级	中度增长	明显增长	轻微不变	基本不变
夏季	多年均值	0.3075	0.3964	0.3054	0.1335
	趋势斜率/·a^-1	0.0035	0.0043	0.0039	0.0011
	增长等级	明显增长	明显增长	明显增长	中度增长
秋季	多年均值	0.2144	0.2784	0.2037	0.1080
	趋势斜率/·a^-1	0.0028	0.0041	0.0024	0.0008
	增长等级	明显增长	明显增长	明显增长	轻微增长
冬季	多年均值	0.1258	0.1567	0.1175	0.0807
	趋势斜率/·a^-1	0.0016	0.0019	0.0016	0.0007
	增长等级	明显增长	明显增长	明显增长	轻微增长

地名	多元回归模型	复相关系数	R²	置信水平
全流域	NDVI_NA=0.3403^T+0.7706^**P-0.1159S+0.3287E	0.7855	0.6171	0.01
上游	NDVI_NA=0.3513^T+0.8641^**P-0.0896S+0.2684E	0.8084	0.6535	0.01
中游	NDVI_NA=0.5386^T+0.6091^P-0.1172S-0.0339E	0.7378	0.5443	0.01
下游	NDVI_NA=0.4672^*T+0.2678P-0.1281S+0.1958E	0.5861	0.3436	0.01

时段	影响因子	全流域	上游	中游	下游
总时段	气候因子	58.3	60.6	50.0	50.0
总时段	人类活动	41.7	39.4	50.0	50.0
突变前	气候因子	72.6	76.7	66.9	68.7
突变前	人类活动	27.4	23.3	33.1	31.3
突变后	气候因子	56.4	59.9	47.5	48.7
突变后	人类活动	43.6	40.1	52.5	51.3

石羊河流域归一化植被指数变化及其驱动因子分析

Normalized difference vegetation index change and its driving factors in Shiyang River Basin

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