多维视角下中国北方农牧交错带县域收缩识别及影响因素分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.431

干旱区地理 ›› 2025, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (7): 1267-1278.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.431 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2024431

多维视角下中国北方农牧交错带县域收缩识别及影响因素分析

罗小梅¹^,²(), 文琦³^,⁴^,⁵(), 施琳娜⁴^,⁵, 吴昕燕⁶, 安丰平²^,⁷, 王振亭¹

1.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院，甘肃兰州 730000
2.中国科学院大学，北京 100049
3.宁夏大学建筑学院，宁夏银川 750021
4.宁夏大学地理科学与规划学院，宁夏银川 750021
5.宁夏大学乡村振兴研究院乡村治理中心，宁夏银川 750021
6.宁夏大学工程与地理学部，宁夏银川 750021
7.中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所，江苏南京 210008

收稿日期:2024-07-17 修回日期:2024-10-11 出版日期:2025-07-25 发布日期:2025-07-04
通讯作者: 文琦（1979-），男，博士，教授，主要从事城乡融合发展与乡村振兴等研究. E-mail: wenq98@163.com
作者简介:罗小梅（2000-），女，硕士研究生，主要从事经济地理研究. E-mail: luoxiaomei22@mails.ucas.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目(42271221);国家重点研发计划课题(2020YFA0608404)

Identification of county shrinkage and its driving factors in agro-pastoral zone of north China from a multidimensional perspective

LUO Xiaomei¹^,²(), WEN Qi³^,⁴^,⁵(), SHI Linna⁴^,⁵, WU Xinyan⁶, AN Fengping²^,⁷, WANG Zhenting¹

1. Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3. School of Architecture, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, Ningxia, China
4. School of Geographical Science and Planning, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, Ningxia, China
5. Rural Governance Center, Institute of Rural Revitalization of Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, Ningxia, China
6. Faculty of Engineering and Geography, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, Ningxia, China
7. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, Jiangsu, China

Received:2024-07-17 Revised:2024-10-11 Published:2025-07-25 Online:2025-07-04

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于人口、经济和空间3个维度，利用收缩度模型、多指标综合评价法识别了2000—2020年中国北方农牧交错带县域收缩类型，同时采用多尺度地理加权回归（MGWR）模型探讨了空间分异视角下中国北方农牧交错带县域收缩的影响因素。结果表明：（1）从收缩数量和严重程度来看，人口收缩最为严重，增长率达到64.15%，覆盖范围最广；其次是空间收缩和经济收缩，增长率分别为30.19%和7.55%。（2）从县域收缩的时空演变特征来看，综合收缩以及人口、经济、空间单维度收缩的县域主要集中在东北和内蒙古地区，并呈现出“由边缘向中心包围”的收缩趋势。（3）从不同维度的组合关系来看，县域收缩的类型逐渐趋向多维化。2000—2010年中国北方农牧交错带仅表现为人口单维度收缩；而2010—2020年收缩类型趋向多元，涵盖了二维和三维收缩，其中以人口-空间收缩为主要类型。（4）从县域收缩的驱动因素来看，中国北方农牧交错带县域收缩主要受地方财政支出、教育资源和固定资产投资的影响，各驱动因素在空间上存在显著的差异。因此，实行分区管理对于实现县域的可持续发展至关重要。研究结果进一步丰富了城市收缩的研究视角，为提升中国北方农牧交错带县域活力并实现城市高质量发展提供科学参考和理论支持。

关键词: 城市收缩, 多维视角, 生态安全, 农牧交错带, 中国北方

Abstract:

This study identifies the types of county shrinkage in the agro-pastoral zone of north China from 2000 to 2020 using a shrinkage degree model and multi-index comprehensive evaluation method based on the three dimensions of population, economy, and space. Furthermore, it also explores the driving factors of county shrinkage from a spatial differentiation perspective, employing a multiscale geographically weighted regression model. The results show the following. (1) Population shrinkage is the most severe, exhibiting a growth rate of 64.15% and the widest geographic coverage; this is followed by spatial shrinkage and economic shrinkage, with growth rates of 30.19% and 7.55%, respectively. (2) In terms of spatial and temporal evolution, overall county shrinkage, along with population, economic, and spatial shrinkage in individual dimensions, is primarily concentrated in the northeast of China and Inner Mongolia, indicating a trend of “encircling from the edge to the centre”. (3) Regarding the interplay of different dimensions, county shrinkage types are gradually becoming multi-dimensional: from 2000 to 2010, only unidimensional population shrinkage was observed in the agro-pastoral zone of north China, whereas from 2010 to 2020, shrinkage types diversified, exhibiting both two- and three-dimensional shrinkage, predominantly characterized by population-space shrinkage. (4) The key driving factors influencing county shrinkage in this region include local financial expenditures, educational resources, and fixed asset investments, exhibiting significant spatial variation. Therefore, implementing zonal management is crucial for achieving sustainable county development. This study enriches research perspectives on urban shrinkage and provides scientific references and theoretical support for enhancing the vitality of counties in the agro-pastoral zone of north China, ultimately contributing to high-quality urban development.

Key words: urban shrinkage, multi-dimensional perspectives, ecological security, agro-pastoral zone, north China

罗小梅, 文琦, 施琳娜, 吴昕燕, 安丰平, 王振亭. 多维视角下中国北方农牧交错带县域收缩识别及影响因素分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(7): 1267-1278.

LUO Xiaomei, WEN Qi, SHI Linna, WU Xinyan, AN Fengping, WANG Zhenting. Identification of county shrinkage and its driving factors in agro-pastoral zone of north China from a multidimensional perspective[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(7): 1267-1278.

图/表 9

图1

表1

图2

图3

表2

表3

表4

图4

表5

参考文献 44

[21]	李宛聪, 李红, 王士君, 等. 东北地区收缩城市识别及其建设用地扩张时空演变[J]. 资源科学, 2024, 46(2): 368-385.
	[ Li Wancong, Li Hong, Wang Shijun, et al. Identification of shrinking cities in northeast China and spatiotemporal evolution of construction land expansion[J]. Resources Science, 2024, 46(2): 368-385. ]
[22]	刘玉博, 张学良. 长江经济带局部城市收缩、发展分异与空间作用机理探讨[J]. 华东师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版), 2023, 55(4): 129-143, 179.
	[ Liu Yubo, Zhang Xueliang. The phenomenon, development differentiation and spatial mechanism of local cities shrinkage in Yangtze River Economic Belt[J]. Journal of East Normal University (Humanities and Social Sciences Edition), 2023, 55(4): 129-143, 179. ]
[23]	杜志威, 李郇. 珠三角快速城镇化地区发展的增长与收缩新现象[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(10): 1800-1811.
	[ Du Zhiwei, Li Xun. Growth or shrinkage: New phenomena of regional development in the rapidly-urbanising Pearl River Delta[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(10): 1800-1811. ]
[24]	许舜威, 周少甫. 产业结构变迁对城市收缩影响的实证检验[J]. 统计与决策, 2022, 38(20): 108-112.
	[ Xu Shunwei, Zhou Shaofu. An empirical test of the impact of industrial structure change on urban contraction[J]. Statistics and Decision, 2022, 38(20): 108-112. ]
[25]	林雄斌, 杨家文, 张衔春, 等. 我国城市收缩测度与影响因素分析——基于人口与经济变化的视角[J]. 人文地理, 2017, 32(1): 82-89.
	[ Lin Xiongbin, Yang Jiawen, Zhang Xianchun, et al. Measuring shrinking cities and influential factors in urban China: Perspective of population and economy[J]. Human Geography, 2017, 32(1): 82-89. ]
[26]	韩蕾, 齐晓明, 郝军. 内蒙古东部地区县域人口收缩的时空格局及驱动力分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2022, 36(8): 60-67.
[1]	孙平军, 王柯文. 中国东北三省城市收缩的识别及其类型划分[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(6): 1366-1379.
	[ Sun Pingjun, Wang Kewen. Identification and stage division of urban shrinkage in the three provinces of northeast China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(6): 1366-1379. ]
[2]	郑殿元, 文琦, 王银, 等. 中国村域人口空心化分异机制及重构策略[J]. 经济地理, 2019, 39(2): 161-168, 189.
	[ Zheng Dianyuan, Wen Qi, Wang Yin, et al. Differentiation mechanism and reconstruction strategy of rural population hollowing in China[J]. Economic Geography, 2019, 39(2): 161-168, 189. ]
[3]	庄佳, 陈友华. 人口负增长、城市收缩与国家抉择[J]. 人口与发展, 2023, 29(6): 31-42, 58.
	[ Zhuang Jia, Chen Youhua. Negative population growth, city shrinking and national choices[J]. Population and Development, 2023, 29(6): 31-42, 58. ]
[4]	陈姝兴, 丁登龙, 吴康. 借用规模视角下中国城市收缩时空特征及其空间溢出效应[J]. 经济地理, 2024, 44(3): 66-75.
	[ Chen Shuxing, Ding Denglong, Wu Kang. Spatiotemporal characteristics and spatial spillover effects of urban shrinkage in China: Based on the perspective of borrowed size[J]. Economic Geography, 2024, 44(3): 66-75. ]
[5]	Häußermann H, Siebel W. Die schrumpfende stadt und die stadtsoziologie[C]//Friedrichs J. Soziologische stadtforschung. Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, 1988: 78-94.
[6]	张浩哲, 杨庆媛. 中国资源型收缩城市“人口-土地-产业”耦合协调分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(1): 163-177.
	[ Zhang Haozhe, Yang Qingyuan. Characteristics of “population-land-industry” coordinated development of resource-based shrinking cities in China[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(1): 163-177. ]
[26]	[ Han Lei, Qi Xiaoming, Hao Jun. Spatiotemporal pattern of county population shrinkage in eastern Inner Mongolia and driving force analysis[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resource and Environment, 2022, 36(8): 60-67. ]
[27]	陈肖飞, 郜瑞瑞, 韩腾腾, 等. 人口视角下黄河流域城市收缩的空间格局与影响因素[J]. 经济地理, 2020, 40(6): 37-46.
	[ Chen Xiaofei, Gao Ruirui, Han Tengteng, et al. Spatial pattern and influencing factors of urban shrinkage in the Yellow River Basin from the perspective of population change[J]. Economic Geography, 2020, 40(6): 37-46. ]
[28]	宁雷, 连华, 牛月, 等. 城镇发展的收缩状态识别、分类及因素探讨——以黄河流域甘肃段为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(3): 492-504.
	[ Ning Lei, Lian Hua, Niu Yue, et al. Identification, classification and factors of contraction of urban development: A case of Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(3): 492-504. ]
[29]	陈棋, 薛东前, 马蓓蓓, 等. 黄土高原地区人口收缩格局与驱动力分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2021, 44(1): 258-267.
	[ Chen Qi, Xue Dongqian, Ma Beibei, et al. Population shrinking pattern and driving forces in the Loess Plateau region[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(1): 258-267. ]
[30]	赵哈林, 赵学勇, 张铜会, 等. 北方农牧交错带的地理界定及其生态问题[J]. 地球科学进展, 2002(5): 739-747.
	[ Zhao Halin, Zhao Xueyong, Zhang Tonghui, et al. Boundary line on agro-pasture zigzag zone in north China and its problems on eco-environment[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2002(5): 739-747. ]
[31]	马利邦, 石志浩, 李梓妍, 等. “人-地-业”协调与区位优势双重视角下农村居民点整理——以河西走廊金昌市为例[J]. 地理科学, 2023, 43(3): 476-487.
	[ Ma Libang, Shi Zhihao, Li Ziyan, et al. Rural residential land consolidation based on “population-land-industry” coordination and location superiority: A case study in Jinchang City, Hexi corridor of Gansu Province[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2023, 43(3): 476-487. ]
[32]	He X J, Guan D J, Zhou L L, et al. Quantifying spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of urban shrinkage in China within a multidimensional framework: A case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt[J]. Sustainable Cities and Society, 2023, 91: 104452, doi: 10.1016/J.SCS.2023.104452.
[7]	李郇, 吴康, 龙瀛, 等. 局部收缩: 后增长时代下的城市可持续发展争鸣[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(10): 1997-2016.
	[ Li Xun, Wu Kang, Long Ying, et al. Academic debates upon shrinking cities in China for sustainable development[J]. Geographical Research, 2017, 36(10): 1997-2016. ]
[8]	Alves D, Barreira A P, Guimarães M H, et al. Historical trajectories of currently shrinking Portuguese cities: A typology of urban shrinkage[J]. Cities, 2016, 52: 20-29.
[9]	Mallach A, Haase A, Hattori K. The shrinking city in comparative perspective: Contrasting dynamics and responses to urban shrinkage[J]. Cities, 2017, 69(9): 102-108.
[10]	鲁彦, 文琦, 夏四友, 等. 宁夏人口与经济分布的地域差异及其格局演变研究[J]. 生态经济, 2017, 33(10): 106-110.
	[ Lu Yan, Wen Qi, Xia Siyou, et al. Regional differences of population and economic distribution in Ningxia[J]. Ecological Economy, 2017, 33(10): 106-110. ]
[11]	Hattori K, Kaido K, Matsuyuki M. The development of urban shrinkage discourse and policy response in Japan[J]. Cities, 2017, 69: 124-132.
[12]	Radzimski A. Changing policy responses to shrinkage: The case of dealing with housing vacancies in eastern Germany[J]. Cities, 2016, 50(2): 197-205.
[13]	杨东峰, 殷成志. 如何拯救收缩的城市: 英国老工业城市转型经验及启示[J]. 国际城市规划, 2013, 28(6): 50-56.
	[ Yang Dongfeng, Yin Chengzhi. How to save the shrinking cities: Old industrial cities’ transition in the UK[J]. Urban Planning International, 2013, 28(6): 50-56. ]
[14]	孙平军. 城市收缩: 内涵·中国化·研究框架[J]. 地理科学进展, 2022, 41(8): 1478-1491.
[33]	张帅. 中国城市收缩的时空演变及其驱动机理研究[D]. 济南: 山东师范大学, 2021.
	[ Zhang Shuai. Research on the spatio-temporal evolution and driving mechanism of urban shrinkage in China[D]. Jinan: Shandong Normal University, 2021. ]
[34]	孙青, 张晓青, 路广. 中国城市收缩的数量、速度和轨迹[J]. 城市问题, 2019(8): 24-29.
	[ Sun Qing, Zhang Xiaoqing, Lu Guang. Quantity, speed and trajectory of urban contraction in China[J]. Urban Problems, 2019(8): 24-29. ]
[35]	刘振, 戚伟, 齐宏纲, 等. 1990—2015年中国县市尺度人口收缩的演变特征及影响因素[J]. 地理研究, 2020, 39(7): 1565-1579.
	[ Liu Zhen, Qi Wei, Qi Honggang, et al. The evolution of regional population decline and its driving factors at the county level in China from 1990 to 2015[J]. Geographical Research, 2020, 39(7): 1565-1579. ]
[36]	张帅, 王成新, 李博. 东北三省城市经济弹性空间分异及其影响因素研究[J]. 人文地理, 2019, 34(4): 73-80.
	[ Zhang Shuai, Wang Chengxin, Li Bo. Spatial differntiation of urban economic elasticity and its influencing factors in northeast China[J]. Human Geography, 2019, 34(4): 73-80. ]
[37]	张帅, 王成新, 王敬, 等. 中国城市收缩的综合测度及其时空分异特征研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2020, 30(8): 72-82.
	[ Zhang Shuai, Wang Chengxin, Wang Jing, et al. On the comprehensive measurement of urban shrink in China and its spatio-temporal differentiation[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2020, 30(8): 72-82. ]
[38]	Zhang K L, Feng R R, Zhang Z C, et al. Exploring the driving factors of remote sensing ecological index changes from the perspective of geospatial differentiation: A case study of the Weihe River Basin, China[J]. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2022, 19(17): 10930, doi: 10.3390/ijerph191710930.
[14]	[ Sun Pingjun. Urban shrinkage: Connotation-Sinicization-framework of analysis[J]. Progress in Geography, 2022, 41(8): 1478-1491. ]
[15]	Zhou Y, Li C G, Zheng W S, et al. Identification of urban shrinkage using NPP-VIIRS nighttime light data at the county level in China[J]. Cities, 2021, 118: 103373, doi: 10.1016/j.cities.2021.103373.
[16]	丁晓明, 王成新, 张宇, 等. 中国老工业基地城市收缩的时空演变及影响因素分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(11): 94-107.
	[ Ding Xiaoming, Wang Chengxin, Zhang Yu, et al. Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of urban shrinkage in China’s old industrial bases[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(11): 94-107. ]
[17]	夏四友, 文琦, 赵媛, 等. 榆林市人口与经济空间关系及格局演变实证研究[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2017, 38(6): 1067-1074.
	[ Xia Siyou, Wen Qi, Zhao Yuan, et al. An analysis of the spatial relationship and pattern evolution of population and economy of Yulin City[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2017, 38(6): 1067-1074. ]
[18]	高詹, 张明斗. 黄河流域收缩型城市效率的异质性及空间效应分析[J]. 城市问题, 2021(4): 4-11.
	[ Gao Zhan, Zhang Mingdou. Heterogeneity and spatial effect analysis of shrinking city efficiency in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Urban Problems, 2021(4): 4-11. ]
[19]	高禄年, 董会和. 城市收缩背景下的资源型城市发展与效率评价: 以鞍山市为例[J]. 中国矿业, 2022, 31(3): 42-48.
	[ Gao Lunian, Dong Huihe. Development and efficiency evaluation of resource-based cities under the background of urban shrinkage: A case study of Anshan City[J]. China Mining Magazine, 2022, 31(3): 42-48. ]
[20]	钱凤魁, 朱益梅, 张晓霞, 等. 辽宁省城市收缩综合测度及影响因素分析[J]. 中国土地科学, 2021, 35(9): 74-83.
	[ Qian Fengkui, Zhu Yimei, Zhang Xiaoxia, et al. Comprehensive measurement and analysis of urban shrinkage and influencing factors in Liaoning Province[J]. China Land Science, 2021, 35(9): 74-83. ]
[39]	叶博文, 孙标, 赵云靓, 等. 2000—2022年内蒙古生境质量时空演变及驱动力分析[J/OL]. 环境科学. [2024-11-21]. https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202407134.
	[ Ye Bowen, Sun Biao, Zhao Yunliang, et al. Spatial-temporal evolution and driving force analysis of habitat quality in Inner Mongolia from 2000 to 2022[J/OL]. Environmental Science. [ 2024-11-21]. https://doi.org/10.13227/j.hjkx.202407134. ]
[40]	闫广华, 陈曦, 张云. 基于随机森林模型的东北地区收缩城市分布格局及影响因素研究[J]. 地理科学, 2021, 41(5): 880-889.
	[ Yan Guanghua, Chen Xi, Zhang Yun. Shrinking cities distribution pattern and influencing factors in northeast China based on random forest model[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2021, 41(5): 880-889. ]
[41]	张云峰. 内蒙古城镇收缩的时空演变及影响因素研究[D]. 呼和浩特: 内蒙古师范大学, 2023.
	[ Zhang Yunfeng. Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of urban shrinkage in Inner Mongolia[D]. Hohhot: Inner Mongolia Normal University, 2023. ]
[42]	张旭亮, 周思敏. 中国县域人口收缩空间格局与影响因素[J]. 经济地理, 2023, 43(7): 43-51.
	[ Zhang Xuliang, Zhou Simin. Evolution of regional population decline and its driving factors at the county level in China[J]. Economic Geography, 2023, 43(7): 43-51. ]
[43]	武荣伟, 王堠崟, 王远鑫, 等. 2000—2020年中国县域人口老龄化分布格局及其影响因素[J]. 热带地理, 2024, 44(8): 1500-1512.
	[ Wu Rongwei, Wang Houyin, Wang Yuanxin, et al. Spatial-temporal patterns and driving factors of population aging in China at the county level during 2000—2020[J]. Tropical Geography, 2024, 44(8): 1500-1512. ]
[44]	吴浩, 王秀, 周宏浩, 等. 东北三省资源型收缩城市经济效率与生计脆弱性的时空分异与协调演化特征[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(12): 1962-1971.
	[ Wu Hao, Wang Xiu, Zhou Honghao, et al. Spatial-temporal pattern of economic efficiency and livelihood vulnerability of resource-based shrinking cities and their coordinated evolution characteristics in the three provinces of northeast China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2019, 39(12): 1962-1971. ]

准测层	准则层权重	指标层	属性	指标层权重
人口维度	0.5	常住人口/人	+	0.331
		出生率/%	+	0.266
		就业总人口/人	+	0.403
经济维度	0.3	GDP/10⁴元	+	0.265
		人均GDP/10⁴元·人^-1	+	0.212
		财政收入/10⁴元	+	0.364
		第一产业占比/%	-	0.064
		第二产业占比/%	+	0.053
		第三产业占比/%	+	0.042
空间维度	0.2	平均夜间灯光指数	+	0.416
		空城指数	+	0.388
		生态用地/km²	+	0.196

年份	全维收缩县域	双维收缩城市
年份	人口-经济-空间	人口-经济	人口-空间	经济-空间
2000—2010	无	无	无	无
2010—2020	新巴尔虎左旗、北票市、东胜区	开鲁县、科尔沁区、前郭尔罗斯蒙古族自治县、昌图县、建平县	库伦旗、肇东市、泰来县、安达市、杜尔伯特蒙古族自治县、赤城县、怀安县、阜新蒙古族自治县、万全区、蔚县、正蓝旗、武川县、浑源县、达拉特旗、伊金霍洛旗、府谷县	无

解释变量	具体指标	数据来源
经济因素	社会消费品零售总额/10⁴元	县域统计年鉴
	固定资产投资完成额/10⁴元	县域统计年鉴
	地方财政支出/10⁴元	县域统计年鉴
	规模以上企业数量/个	县域统计年鉴
社会因素	卫生、社会保障从业人数/人	人口普查数据
	在校小学生数量/人	县域统计年鉴
	距地级市距离/km	经纬度计算
自然因素	高程/m	500 m全球海洋测深DEM数据集
	年均气温/℃	1000 m国家地球栅格数据
	年均降雨量/mm	1000 m国家地球栅格数据

模型	R²	Adjusted R²	AICc	RSS
OLS	0.522	0.472	494.894	537.447
GWR	0.772	0.748	462.079	258.579
MGWR	0.780	0.729	192.995	23.280

指标	平均值	标准差	最小值	中位数	最大值	VIF	带宽
社会消费品零售总额	0.108	0.057	0.026	0.140	0.175	3.678	105
固定资产投资完成额	-0.562	0.487	-1.158	-0.854	-0.015	1.188	50
地方财政支出	0.621	0.264	0.231	0.826	0.854	2.474	82
规模以上企业数量	0.260	0.004	0.250	0.262	0.265	1.821	105
卫生、社会保障从业人数	-0.005	0.008	-0.018	-0.001	0.006	4.980	105
在校小学生数量	-0.506	0.020	-0.530	-0.501	-0.478	4.968	105
距地级市距离	0.102	0.039	0.053	0.111	0.162	1.017	105
高程	0.329	0.039	0.280	0.308	0.385	1.610	105
年均气温	0.372	0.329	0.082	0.204	1.096	1.517	54
年均降雨量	0.215	0.108	0.062	0.263	0.348	1.427	90

多维视角下中国北方农牧交错带县域收缩识别及影响因素分析

Identification of county shrinkage and its driving factors in agro-pastoral zone of north China from a multidimensional perspective

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 9

参考文献 44

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0

[1]	闫晓梅, 王宏卫, 罗魁, 董康宁, 郭瑞杰, 郑旭东. 基于生态安全格局确定县域生物多样性保护的优先区域——以布尔津县为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(4): 586-598.
[2]	张杰, 屈建军, 陈海, 石金鑫, 马羽赫, 刘迪. 基于电路理论的生态安全格局时空演变与影响因素研究——以陕北黄土高原为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(3): 494-505.
[3]	蒙慧敏, 占车生, 胡实, 林忠辉. 大型灌区土壤水盐运移模拟研究进展[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(9): 1566-1576.
[4]	黄秋淞, 何浩. 耦合生态系统服务和景观连通性的环塔里木盆地绿洲区生态安全格局研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(10): 1745-1754.
[5]	张齐飞, 陈亚宁, 孙从建, 向燕芸, 郝海超. 塔里木河流域水储量变化及绿洲生态安全评估[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(1): 1-14.
[6]	杨荣美, 周宏, 张燕妮, 卢训贤, 王娜娜. 基于熵权TOPSIS方法与模糊物元模型的河西走廊地区旅游生态安全评估[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(1): 117-126.
[7]	李洪庆,杨瑀,张俊红. 雅鲁藏布江山南宽谷流域生态安全格局构建[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(9): 1503-1513.
[8]	田柳兰, 王珊珊, 毋兆鹏. 基于多时相遥感数据的乌鲁木齐市生态安全格局构建[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(7): 1155-1165.
[9]	孔德明, 郝丽莎, 夏四友, 李红波. 粮食单产视角下中国北方农牧交错带粮食安全研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(5): 782-792.
[10]	张萨日郎, 乌兰图雅, 布和, 咏梅, 斯琴朝克图, 张卫青. 近40 a蒙古高原土地沙漠化研究的文献计量学分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(12): 1984-1994.
[11]	李伊彤,荣丽华,李文龙,程磊. 生态重要性视角下东北林区县域生态安全格局研究——以呼伦贝尔市阿荣旗为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(5): 1615-1625.
[12]	张晓东,赵志鹏,赵银鑫,高学花,马玉学,刘乃静,吉卫波. 银川市景观生态风险评价与生态安全格局优化构建[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(5): 1626-1636.
[13]	陈晨,汪丽,程林. 北方农牧交错带少数民族语地名文化脆弱性评价体系构建与实证[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(3): 976-985.
[14]	陶泽涪,王世清,孙丕苓,李凯迪,田文,韩潇潇. 中国北方农牧交错带耕地时空分异及驱动因素[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(1): 153-163.
[15]	陈阳,马龙,刘廷玺,黄星. 中国北方地区季节降水与气温关系及其时空变异性[J]. 干旱区地理, 2021, 44(6): 1545-1558.