论地球科学的新时代

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.258

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

最近以来，无论在科学界还是政府和民间团体，气候变化都成为热点议题。从人类认识自然的技术工具突破入手，系统介绍了人类活动对自然界的影响日益加剧，特别是工业革命以来工业化推动城市化成为气候变化的主导因素，给自然和人类社会带来巨大的变化，而且因其集聚效应正呈现巨大加速度改变地球，地球的自然和人类社会复杂系统已经处在日益严重的危机和威胁之中。研究表明：气候变化和城市化，一方面带来地球系统、资源-生态-环境、城市发展、公共健康和社会脆弱性等一系列问题；另一方面，也为地球科学学科发展带来新需求，注入新动力，地球科学发展进入人类世的新时代。文章认为：人类世地质年代需要重新定义地球科学。地球科学研究将会从地层为主转向圈层为主，研究对象和领域将从纯粹的地科系统扩展到人与地球复合系统，研究重点从地球资源攫取转向广义宜居星球研究，人类世及其研究、人类圈地理学、冰冻圈科学、水圈-人类圈界面、地球系统动力学、城市化与城市地理学、地球伦理符号学和地球地图集成将成为地球科学发展的新增长点。地理学因其与生俱来的科学、自然和社会一切科学之母的独特特性，将迎来再发展和再繁荣的新机遇，尤其人文地理学可以发挥更加重要的学科作用。

关键词: 气候变化, 城市化, 巨大加速度变化, 人类世, 地球科学, 地理学, 人文地理学

Abstract:

Recently, climate change has become a topic of interest in the scientific community, governmental departments, and civil society. This paper begins with a description of the breakthrough technologies that have transformed nature followed by a systematic introduction of the increasing impact of human activities on nature. Since the Industrial Revolution, industrialization-driven urbanization has emerged as the dominant factor in climate change, considerably changing nature and human society. Due to the accelerating agglomeration effect of urbanization, the earth’s complex socio-ecological system is already in a crisis. We contend that climate change and urbanization, on the one hand, yield a series of negative impacts on the earth system, earth’s resources, ecology, environment, urban development, public health, and social resilience, and on the other hand, place new demands on earth science as a discipline as we enter the new geological era of the Anthropocene, which requires the development and redefinition of earth science. Consequently, earth science research will shift from being stratum based to being sphere based. Its objects and fields will expand from those of the pure earth system to those of the human-earth complex system. Correspondingly, the research focus will shift from the extraction of earth’s resources to the general habitability of the planet and the Anthropocene era, anthroposphere geography, cryosphere science, hydrosphere-anthroposphere interface, earth system dynamics, urbanization and urban geography, geoethics and semiotics, and EarthMAP (earth monitoring, analysis, and prediction) integration. Geography, as the “mother” of all natural and social sciences, will face new opportunities of development and prosperity, while human geography in particular will play a more important disciplinary role.

Key words: climate change, urbanization, accelerating change, Anthropocene, earth science, geography, human geography

顾朝林, 苏鹤放, 顾江, 高喆, 陈乐琳, 郭力. 论地球科学的新时代[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(7): 1176-1195.

GU Chaolin, SU Hefang, GU Jiang, GAO Zhe, CHEN Lelin, GUO Li. On the new era of earth science[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(7): 1176-1195.

图/表 10

图1

表1

中国最近小冰期气候变化及其社会响应"

年份	气候变化		社会响应
年份	气温	自然灾害	社会动乱	公共政策	人口变化/人
1450—1750年	长江结冰1月。洞庭湖冰厚1尺（约33.3 cm）。浙江省河面结冰。	-	-	-	6.0×10⁷
明正统元年—嘉靖45年（1436—1566年）	-	-	-	解除禁海令，玉米、土豆、花生、甘薯、向日葵、辣椒、四季豆等高产农作物从菲律宾传入。	8.2×10⁷
明景泰4—5年（1453—1454年）	山东省“大雪数尺”。	-	人畜多冻死	-	-
明隆庆3年（1569年）农历十二月	广东省佛山市南海区大雪，“林木皆冰”。	-	-	-	-
万历—崇祯（1573—1641年）	-	旱灾持续时间之长，范围之广，历史罕见。特别黄河流域几乎年年旱灾。	旱灾之后出现瘟疫。山西省晋中市太谷区、忻州市、保德县发生瘟疫，大同“瘟疫大作，十室九空”；河南省、河北省等地皆发生瘟疫。陕西省、山东省等地也爆发瘟疫。	农产品种增加，粮食产量增加。	2.0×10⁸
万历46年十二月（1618年）	广州市鹅毛大雪，从化区“山谷之中，峰尽壁立，林皆琼挺”。	-	-	-	-
万历48年十月（1620年）	山东省大雪，厚达一尺许。	-	大量鸟兽因食物匮乏饿死。	-	-
崇祯元年—17年（1628—1644年）	-	河北省大旱，“赤地千里”；河南省出现9次旱灾。黄河断流。梁山泊、安山湖干涸。	-	-	-
崇祯12—15年（1639—1642年）	-	长江流域旱灾蔓延。浙江省连年旱灾、蝗灾和瘟疫。	农作物歉收	-	7.0×10⁷
康熙—乾隆年间（1662—1796年）	-	-	-	康熙年间取消新生人口赋税；雍正年间取消人头税，改革户籍制度。中医中药之风盛行，西方医疗技术引进，新生儿死亡率下降，病人治愈率提高。红薯等外来农作物引入，耕种面积扩大。	2.0×10⁴~3.0×10⁴
嘉庆元年—鸦片战争（1796—1840年）	-	-	湖北省、河南省、四川省和陕西省爆发白莲教灾民起义，政府镇压耗国库白银2×10⁸两。	-	-
道光30年（1850年）	小冰期结束	-	-	-	4.3×10⁸
1900年	-	-	爆发太平天国运动	-	3.3×10⁴

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表5

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年份	世界城市水平/%	年均增长率/%	发达国家/%	发展中国家/%
1800	3.00	-	-	-
1850	6.40	0.068	-	-
1900	13.60	0.144	-	-
1950	28.20	0.292	53.8	17.0
1960	33.57	0.537	60.5	22.2
1970	36.53	0.296	66.6	25.4
1975	37.65	0.224	-	-
1980	39.28	0.326	70.2	29.2
1985	41.12	0.368	-	-
1990	42.92	0.360	72.5	33.6
1995	44.70	0.356	-	-
2000	46.60	0.380	74.4	39.3
2005	48.96	0.472	-	-
2010	51.45	0.498	76.0	46.2
2015	53.84	0.478	-	-
2020	57.40	0.712	77.2	53.1

城市	年平均气温/℃										1979—2018年
城市	1979年	1980年	1985年	1990年	1995年	2000年	2005年	2010年	2015年	2018年	年气温差/℃	年平均气温/℃	年最高气温/℃	年最低气温/℃
哈尔滨市	4.71	3.10	3.40	5.53	5.38	4.67	4.75	4.52	5.53	5.11	0.40	4.87	12.14（2007年）	-1.89（1980年）
长春市	5.65	4.56	4.94	7.00	6.62	5.74	5.64	5.24	7.20	6.91	1.26	6.21	12.95（2007年）	-0.37（1980年）
沈阳市	8.57	7.70	7.97	8.47	8.58	8.32	8.06	7.30	8.99	8.82	0.25	8.52	16.15（2014年）	1.16（2009年）
广州市	21.78	22.18	21.58	22.65	22.26	22.60	22.90	22.71	22.75	22.49	0.71	22.41	27.91（2007年）	10.64（1988年）
乌鲁木齐市	5.40	5.80	5.34	6.94	7.07	6.51	6.98	6.77	7.75	6.30	0.90	6.70	14.51（1997年）	0.07（1988年）
上海市	15.91	15.00	15.75	16.92	16.47	17.17	17.05	17.21	17.13	18.84	2.93	16.75	21.94（2007年）	7.26（1988年）
青岛市	13.25	12.25	12.34	13.57	13.42	13.67	13.27	13.26	14.17	13.95	0.70	13.45	17.96（2017年）	5.93（1988年）
大连市	11.51	10.63	10.31	11.84	12.03	11.38	10.83	10.35	12.13	12.32	0.81	11.61	16.61（2014年）	4.66（1987年）
合肥市	16.03	14.94	15.27	16.37	16.32	16.70	16.14	16.45	16.71	17.09	2.15	16.26	22.23（2017年）	6.87（1988年）
武汉市	16.84	16.00	16.16	17.10	17.29	17.61	17.73	16.79	17.25	17.74	0.90	17.12	22.90（2013年）	7.40（1988年）
西安市	13.70	13.07	13.09	13.63	14.33	14.03	14.02	14.22	13.69	15.28	1.58	13.93	21.97（2013年）	5.28（1988年）
北京市	10.94	10.92	11.45	12.60	13.17	12.55	12.81	12.22	13.30	13.19	2.25	12.69	19.66（2017年）	4.39（1987年）
兰州市	7.95	8.32	8.00	8.95	8.50	9.57	8.41	8.51	9.31	8.94	0.99	8.80	17.08（2015年）	0.77（1984年）

使用自然资源的制成品	占全球比重/%
钢铁	53.9
煤炭	50.1
平板玻璃	60.0
水泥	60.2
电解铝	57.2

年份	城市化水平/%	地下水位	地面沉降
1949	12.0	-2~-3 m	-
1960s	15.0	年均下降1~2 m	-
1970s	16.0	苏州市、无锡市、常州市分别下降到-10.0 m、-29.0 m和-12.8 m	分别出现50 km²以上的地面沉降区
1976	15.0	苏州市、无锡市、常州市分别下降到-55.0 m、-59.0 m和-58.0 m	地下水位-15 m等值线面积达到了1500 km²
1980s	20.0	-	沿沪宁线宽30 km，长125 km，面积达5400 km²
1990s	25.0	苏州市、无锡市、常州市分别降到-66.32 m、-79.47 m、-78.21 m	最大沉降速率一度达到120 mm·a^-1，苏州市区最大累计地面下沉降超过1.6 m，无锡市区和常州市区超过1.2 m
2000	57.1	禁采地下水政策	-
2006	65.1	苏州市、无锡市、常州市分别下降到-66.4 m、-77.9 m和-86.2 m	地下水漏斗面积约5400 km²
2010	70.6	-	-
2015	74.9	累计完成封井7819眼，每年累计压采地下水开采量4.1×10⁸ m³	沉降速率控制在每年7 mm以内
2018	76.1	-	-
2019	77.0	回升至-40 m	地下水漏斗区已全部消失
2020	81.7	-	-
2021	81.9	-	-