祁连山西段老虎沟流域消融季径流变化特征研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2022.190

干旱区地理 ›› 2023, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (2): 178-190.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2022.190

祁连山西段老虎沟流域消融季径流变化特征研究

晋子振^1,²(),秦翔¹(),赵求东³,李延召^1,²,刘宇硕¹,陈记祖¹,王利辉^1,²,王强¹

1.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室/祁连山冰川与生态环境综合观测研究站，甘肃兰州 730000
2.中国科学院大学，北京 100049
3.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室，甘肃兰州 730000

收稿日期:2022-05-02 修回日期:2022-08-15 出版日期:2023-02-25 发布日期:2023-03-14
通讯作者: 秦翔（1973-），男，研究员，主要从事冰川与全球变化研究. E-mail: qinxiang@lzb.ac.cn
作者简介:晋子振（1993-），男，博士研究生，主要从事冰冻圈水文模拟研究. E-mail: jinzizhen@lzb.ac.cn
基金资助:
青藏高原第二次科考项目(2019QZKK020103);国家自然科学基金项目(41871059);甘肃省自然科学基金重大项目(18JR4RA002);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA2002010202)

Characteristics of runoff variation during ablation season in Laohugou watershed of western Qilian Mountains

JIN Zizhen^1,²(),QIN Xiang¹(),ZHAO Qiudong³,LI Yanzhao^1,²,LIU Yushuo¹,CHEN Jizu¹,WANG Lihui^1,²,WANG Qiang¹

1. Qilian Shan Station of Glaciology and Eco-environment, State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3. Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology of Inland River Basin, Northwest Institute of Eco-environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China

Received:2022-05-02 Revised:2022-08-15 Online:2023-02-25 Published:2023-03-14

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于祁连山西段老虎沟流域断面的径流数据与大本营气象站的气象资料，对冰川区径流与气象要素之间的相关性进行了分析，并建立了多元指数非线性回归方程对径流进行重建以弥补缺失径流，此外，对冰川区径流的年际、季节、日尺度的变化特征进行了分析。结果表明：（1）冰川区径流量与气温的相关性最高0.86，其次是水汽压（0.81）、相对湿度（0.46）、降水量（0.27），径流受气温影响最大。（2） 21世纪观测资料显示日平均径流量为2.10 m³·s^-1，较20世纪50年代末的1.65 m³·s^-1有所增加，主要因消融季气温上升0.75 ℃所致，强消融期（7、8月）径流量的年际变化较大，消融期初（5、6月）和末（9月）年际变化较小。消融季5—9月产流占比分别为5.3%、16.1%、37.3%、35.1%、6.2%。（3）多元指数非线性回归方程可以较好地模拟日径流量（纳什效率系数平均为0.70），补充缺失径流后，对于径流的日变化，消融期初和末日变化较小，而强消融期径流的日变化较大。对于径流的时滞效应，老虎沟流域消融季各月径流呈现“谷-峰”的日变化特征，消融期初和末气温达到最大值与径流达到最大值的时间间距较大，而强消融期较小，在消融期初的6月两者相差最大为3 h。明晰冰川融水变化特征对干旱区水资源管理，生态保护及社会经济可持续发展具有重要意义。

关键词: 径流重建, 气候变化, 径流变化, 老虎沟流域

Abstract:

Based on the runoff data and meteorological data of Laohugou watershed in the western of Qilian Mountains, northwest China, the research analyzed the relationship between runoff and meteorological variables in glacier area, and established a multivariate exponential nonlinear regression to reconstructe the runoff. In addition, the characteristics of interannual, seasonal, diurnal variations of runoff in the glacial region were analyzed. The results showed that: (1) The correlation between runoff and temperature is the highest (0.86), followed by water vapor pressure (0.81), relative humidity (0.46), and precipitation (0.27). Runoff is most affected by temperature. (2) The mean daily runoff is 2.10 m³·s^-1 in this century, which is higher than 1.65 m³·s^-1 in the late 1950s, the main reason is that the temperature increased by 0.75 ℃ in the ablation season. The interannual variation of runoff is large in the strong ablation period, and the interannual variation is small in the beginning (May-June) and end (September) of the ablation period. The proportion of runoff generation from May to September was 5.3%, 16.1%, 37.3%, 35.1% and 6.2%, respectively. (3) Multivariate exponential nonlinear regression equation can better simulate the daily runoff (the mean Nash efficiency coefficient is 0.70). After the supplement of the missing runoff, the diurnal variation of runoff is small in the beginning and end of the ablation period, but the diurnal variation of runoff is large in the strong ablation period. For the time-lag effect of runoff, monthly runoff in Laohugou watershed showed a characteristic of diurnal variation of “valley-peak” during the ablation period. The time interval between the maximum temperature and the maximum runoff was long in the beginning and end of the ablation period, while the time interval was short between the maximum temperature and the maximum runoff during the strong ablation period, and the maximum difference between the maximum temperature and the maximum runoff was 3 hours in June.

Key words: runoff construction, climate change, the variation of runoff, Laohugou watershed

晋子振, 秦翔, 赵求东, 李延召, 刘宇硕, 陈记祖, 王利辉, 王强. 祁连山西段老虎沟流域消融季径流变化特征研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(2): 178-190.

JIN Zizhen, QIN Xiang, ZHAO Qiudong, LI Yanzhao, LIU Yushuo, CHEN Jizu, WANG Lihui, WANG Qiang. Characteristics of runoff variation during ablation season in Laohugou watershed of western Qilian Mountains[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(2): 178-190.

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年份	方程	a	b	c	d	R²
2009	y=0.50t+0.40p	-	0.50^***	-	0.40^***	0.51
2012	y=0.44e^(0.24^t^+0.02^p^+1.0^v⁾	0.44^***	0.24^***	0.02^***	1.00	0.71
2013	y=0.46e^(0.20^t^+0.97^v^+0.003^p⁾	0.46^***	0.20^***	0.97^***	0.003	0.94
2015	y=1.17e^(0.23^t^-0.71^v^+0.01^p⁾	1.17^***	0.23^***	-0.71	0.01	0.57
2016	y=0.30e^(0.15^t^+2.17^v^+0.02^p⁾	0.30^*	0.15^***	2.17^***	0.02^**	0.67
2018	y=0.15e^(0.19^t^+2.71^v^-0.01^p⁾	0.15^*	0.19^**	2.71^***	-0.01	0.58
年均	y=0.28e^(0.24^t^+1.79^v^+0.02^p⁾	0.28^***	0.24^***	1.79^***	0.02^**	0.89

祁连山西段老虎沟流域消融季径流变化特征研究

Characteristics of runoff variation during ablation season in Laohugou watershed of western Qilian Mountains

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