中国与“一带一路”沿线国家空间联通水平差异与成因分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.082

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

交通基础设施联通是“一带一路”五通的重要组成部分。考虑到中国与周边国家复杂的地理特征，铁路和公路的建设成本高、周期长，在搭建“一带一路”沿线国家空间联通时，应率先提高中国与“一带一路”国家航空运输的联通水平。通过对2019年中国与“一带一路”沿线国家航空运输联通水平的现状梳理，结合其内涵特点构建了航空运输联通水平的评价指标体系。从中国民航局、飞常准和《从统计看民航》收集所需数据，采用因子分析法计算中国与“一带一路”各国的航空运输联通度综合得分，并采用K-均值聚类算法，将“一带一路”国家航空联通水平综合指数按自然断裂法分为高联通、较高联通、基本联通、较低联通和几乎无联通5个等级。结果表明：（1）中国与“一带一路”不同国家间航空运输联通水平差异显著，呈现“金字塔”型非均衡发展特征。（2）航空政策、航空网络、区域地理特征、区域经济水平是导致“一带一路”沿线国家航空运输联通水平发展不均衡的主要原因。本文为提高中国与“一带一路”国家空间联通水平提供了理论依据，以期通过发展“一带一路”国际航空运输市场，推动丝绸之路经济带沿线国家和地区的区域经济建设，助力“空中丝绸之路”的搭建、畅通与繁荣。

关键词: “一带一路”, 空间联通, 航空联通, 中国

Abstract:

Transport infrastructure connectivity is an important part of the Belt and Road Initiative. Considering the complex geographical characteristics of China and its neighboring countries as well as the high costs and long cycle of railway and road construction, taking initiative to improve the level of air transport connectivity between China and the countries along the Belt and Road Initiative is imperative when setting up the space connectivity. Based on the development background of the Belt and Road construction, this paper defines the concept of air transport connectivity and investigates the spatial connectivity between China and the countries along the Belt and Road. By combing the status quo of the air transport connectivity between China and the countries along the Belt and Road, and combining it with its connotation characteristics, nine indicators were selected to construct an evaluation index system for air transport connectivity. The required data were collected from the Civil Aviation Administration of China, Aviation Standard and Civil Aviation from the Perspective of Statistics, the index data were standardized, the comprehensive score of the air transport connectivity between China and the countries along the Belt and Road was calculated using the factor analysis method, and the K-means clustering algorithm was adopted. According to the natural break method, the comprehensive index of the air transport connectivity level in these countries was divided into five levels: high connectivity, high connectivity, basic connectivity, low connectivity, and almost no connectivity. The study revealed that: (1) China has made preliminary achievements for promoting the air transport connectivity with the countries along the Belt and Road. However, owing to the influence of air transport policies, air network, regional geographical characteristics, regional economic level, and other factors between China and the countries along the Belt and Road, significant differences exist in the air transport connectivity level between China and these countries. This difference is characterized by the unbalanced development of a “pyramid” type. (2) The aviation policy, aviation network, regional geographical characteristics, and regional economic level were mainly responsible for the unbalanced development of the air transport connectivity in these countries. Selecting key node cities based on regional geographical characteristics, building air traffic corridors, accelerating the construction of air transport connectivity, and obtaining maximum political and economic benefits are suggested. By considering the economic environment and existing transportation infrastructure in each country, different construction plans should be proposed based on local conditions, and all parties should work together to achieve comprehensive and coordinated development. In this paper, a theoretical basis for improving the spatial connectivity between China and the countries along the Belt and Road was provided to promote the regional economic construction in the countries and regions along the Silk Road Economic Belt by developing an Belt and Road international air transport market and facilitate the smooth construction and prosperity of the “Air Silk Road.”

Key words: the Belt and Road, spatial connectivity, air connectivity, China

肖懿晨, 文军, 李玲玉, 冯庆旺. 中国与“一带一路”沿线国家空间联通水平差异与成因分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(10): 1723-1731.

XIAO Yichen, WEN Jun, LI Lingyu, FENG Qingwang. Differences and causes of spatial connectivity between China and countries along the Belt and Road[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(10): 1723-1731.

图/表 6

表1

一带一路沿线国家分布"

区域	国家	数量
非洲	苏丹、南非、塞内加尔、塞拉利昂、科特迪瓦、索马里、喀麦隆、南苏丹、塞舌尔、几内亚、加纳、赞比亚、莫桑比克、加蓬、纳米比亚、毛里塔尼亚、安哥拉、吉布提、埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚、尼日利亚、乍得、刚果布、津巴布韦、阿尔及利亚、坦桑尼亚、布隆迪、佛得角、乌干达、冈比亚、多哥、卢旺达、摩洛哥、马达加斯加、突尼斯、利比亚、埃及、赤道几内亚、利比里亚、莱索托、科摩罗、贝宁、马里、尼日尔、刚果（金）、博茨瓦纳、中非、几内亚比绍、厄立特里亚、布基纳法索、圣多美和普林西比	51
东亚	韩国、蒙古	2
东南亚	新加坡、东帝汶、马来西亚、缅甸、柬埔寨、越南、老挝、文莱、泰国、印度尼西亚、菲律宾	11
南亚	巴基斯坦、斯里兰卡、孟加拉国、尼泊尔、马尔代夫	5
西亚	阿联酋、科威特、土耳其、卡塔尔、阿曼、黎巴嫩、沙特阿拉伯、巴林、伊朗、伊拉克、阿富汗、阿塞拜疆、格鲁吉亚、亚美尼亚、也门、叙利亚	16
中亚	哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦	4
欧洲	塞浦路斯、俄罗斯、奥地利、希腊、波兰、塞尔维亚、捷克、保加利亚、斯洛伐克、阿尔巴尼亚、克罗地亚、波黑、黑山、爱沙尼亚、立陶宛、斯洛文尼亚、匈牙利、马其顿、罗马尼亚、拉脱维亚、乌克兰、白俄罗斯、摩尔多瓦、马耳他、葡萄牙、意大利、卢森堡	27
大洋洲	新西兰、巴布亚新几内亚、萨摩亚、纽埃、斐济、密克罗尼西亚联邦、库克群岛、汤加、瓦努阿图、所罗门群岛、基里巴斯	11
南美洲	智利、圭亚那、玻利维亚、乌拉圭、委内瑞拉、苏里南、厄瓜多尔、秘鲁、阿根廷	9
北美洲	哥斯达黎加、巴拿马、萨尔瓦多、多米尼加、特立尼达和多巴哥、安提瓜和巴布达、多米尼克、格林纳达、巴巴多斯、古巴、牙买加、尼加拉瓜	12

表1

表2

表3

表4

表5

表6

中国与“一带一路”国家航空联通水平划分"

航空互联互通类别	国家	数量
高度联通	韩国、泰国	2
较高联通	柬埔寨、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、缅甸、菲律宾、俄罗斯、新加坡、阿拉伯联合酋长国、越南	9
基本联通	匈牙利、意大利、哈萨克斯坦、老挝、马尔代夫、尼泊尔、新西兰、沙特阿拉伯、南非	9
较低联通	阿富汗、阿尔及利亚、阿根廷、奥地利、阿塞拜疆、巴林、孟加拉国、白俄罗斯、玻利维亚、文莱、喀麦隆、古巴、捷克共和国、埃及、埃塞俄比亚、斐济、格鲁吉亚、加纳、希腊、格林纳达、伊朗、伊拉克、肯尼亚、吉尔吉斯斯坦、黎巴嫩、卢森堡、马达加斯加、密克罗尼西亚、蒙古、纳米比亚、阿曼、巴基斯坦、巴拿马、巴布亚新几内亚、波兰、卡塔尔、卢旺达、塞尔维亚、塞舌尔、斯洛文尼亚、斯里兰卡、塔吉克斯坦、坦桑尼亚、土耳其、乌克兰、乌兹别克斯坦、瓦努阿图、津巴布韦、吉布提	49
几本无联通	阿尔巴尼亚、安哥拉、安提瓜和巴布达、亚美尼亚、巴巴多斯、贝宁、波黑、博茨瓦纳、保加利亚、布基纳法索、布隆地、佛得角、乍得、智利、科摩罗、刚果、库克群岛、哥斯达黎加、科特迪瓦、克罗地亚、塞浦路斯、刚果民主共和国、多米尼加共和国、多米尼克、厄瓜多尔、萨尔瓦多、赤道几内亚、厄立特里亚、爱沙尼亚、加蓬、冈比亚、几内亚、几内亚比绍、圭亚那、牙买加、基里巴斯、科威特、拉托维亚、莱索托、利比里亚、利比亚、立陶宛、马其顿、马里、马耳他、毛里塔尼亚、中非共和国、摩尔多瓦、黑山、摩洛哥、莫桑比克、尼加拉瓜、尼日尔、尼日利亚、纽埃、秘鲁、葡萄牙、罗马尼亚、萨摩亚、圣多美和普林西比、塞内加尔、塞拉利昂、斯洛伐克、所罗门群岛、索马里、南苏丹、苏丹、苏里南、叙利亚、东帝汶、多哥、汤加、特立尼达和多巴哥、突尼斯、乌干达、乌拉圭、委内瑞拉、也门、赞比亚	79

表6

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一级指标	二级指标	数据来源
航线网络联通指标	联通城市数（x₁）	飞常准航线图（https://map.variflight.com/）
	联通机场数（x₂）
	联通国家和地区（x₃）
	开通航线数（x₄）
航空运输联通指标	运营航司数（x₅）
航空运输联通指标	往返航班数（x₆）
航空政策联通指标	是（1）否（0）签订航空运输双边协定（x₇）	中国民航局官网（http://www.caac.gov.cn/index.html）
	是（1）否（0）签订双边适航协议（x₈）
	航权开放度（1~9）（x₉）

KMO检验	Bartlett球形度检验
KMO检验	近似卡方	自由度	显著性
0.796	3025.951	36	0.000

成分	初始特征值			提取载荷平方和
成分	总计	方差百分比/%	累积/%	总计	方差百分比/%	累积/%
1	5.579	61.986	61.986	5.579	61.986	61.986
2	1.809	20.103	82.089	1.809	20.103	82.089
3	0.997	11.077	93.165	-	-	-
4	0.421	4.679	97.844	-	-	-
5	0.135	1.497	99.341	-	-	-
6	0.030	0.335	99.676	-	-	-
7	0.017	0.191	99.867	-	-	-
8	0.012	0.131	99.998	-	-	-
9	0.000	0.002	100.000	-	-	-

区域	国家	Y₁	Y₂	Y
非洲	南非	-0.11	1.05	0.17
	埃塞俄比亚	-0.11	1.00	0.16
	肯尼亚	-0.18	0.90	0.09
	埃及	-0.05	1.00	0.21
东亚	韩国	4.86	-0.07	3.65
东亚	蒙古	0.07	0.98	0.29
东南亚	新加坡	2.69	0.67	2.20
	马来西亚	2.46	0.58	2.00
	缅甸	1.75	0.97	1.56
	柬埔寨	3.05	0.82	2.51
	越南	4.12	0.30	3.19
	老挝	0.53	1.17	0.68
	文莱	0.17	0.97	0.37
	泰国	6.75	-0.47	4.98
	印度尼西亚	1.94	0.91	1.69
	菲律宾	2.06	0.65	1.72
南亚	巴基斯坦	-0.05	0.88	0.18
	斯里兰卡	0.08	0.86	0.27
	孟加拉国	-0.08	0.88	0.16
	尼泊尔	0.24	0.99	0.42
	马尔代夫	0.30	1.06	0.49
西亚	阿联酋	0.84	0.94	0.86
	土耳其	0.08	0.97	0.29
	卡塔尔	0.01	0.87	0.22
	沙特阿拉伯	0.03	0.88	0.24
	伊朗	-0.17	0.79	0.07
	阿塞拜疆	-0.19	0.80	0.05
中亚	哈萨克斯坦	0.17	0.96	0.37
中亚	乌兹别克斯坦	-0.23	0.80	0.02
欧洲	俄罗斯	3.06	0.65	2.47
	奥地利	0.11	0.97	0.32
	捷克	-0.23	0.95	0.06
	匈牙利	-0.11	1.05	0.17
	乌克兰	-0.27	0.96	0.03
	意大利	0.62	0.89	0.68
大洋洲	新西兰	0.48	1.17	0.65
大洋洲	斐济	-0.23	0.91	0.05