粮食单产视角下中国北方农牧交错带粮食安全研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.391

干旱区地理 ›› 2023, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (5): 782-792.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.391

粮食单产视角下中国北方农牧交错带粮食安全研究

孔德明^1,²(),郝丽莎^1,²(),夏四友^3,⁴,李红波^1,²

1.南京师范大学地理科学学院，江苏南京 210023
2.江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心，江苏南京 210023
3.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所，北京 100101
4.中国科学院大学资源与环境学院，北京 100049

收稿日期:2022-08-09 修回日期:2022-11-10 出版日期:2023-05-25 发布日期:2023-06-05
通讯作者: 郝丽莎（1981-），女，副教授，主要从事经济地理与区域可持续发展研究. E-mail: lisahull@163.com
作者简介:孔德明（1998-），女，硕士研究生，主要从事经济地理与区域可持续发展研究. E-mail: 467143819@qq.com
基金资助:
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(20YJCZH069)

Food security in the argo-pastoral ecotone of northern China from the perspective of grain yield

KONG Deming^1,²(),HAO Lisha^1,²(),XIA Siyou^3,⁴,LI Hongbo^1,²

1. School of Geographical Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, China
2. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, China
3. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Beijing 100101, China
4. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2022-08-09 Revised:2022-11-10 Online:2023-05-25 Published:2023-06-05

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

从中国北方农牧交错带粮食安全和粮食单产的重要性出发，利用空间自相关分析揭示带内粮食单产的空间分异及演化特征，作为划分农牧业发展地域的依据，进而利用地理探测器模型揭示控制单产分异的主导因子及其交互作用，藉此探讨提高带内粮食单产、保障粮食安全的对策。结果表明：（1） 2000—2020年带内粮食单产呈现相对稳定的集聚分布态势，自然环境分异大势是其基础性控制因素，社会生产条件及其耦合水平则强化了粮食单产的空间分异特征。（2）单产热点区主要集中在带内东北部平原地区和西南部河湟谷地，冷点区分布在中部水土流失区和丘陵地区，次热和次冷点区则围绕热、冷点形成圈层结构；依据该格局可将热点区划分为宜农区，将次热和次冷区划分为农牧耦合区，将冷点区划分为生态修复区，以因地制宜地促进带内农牧业协调发展。（3） 2000—2020年带内粮食单产的增长模式从以劳动力为主导转变为以现代农业技术为主导，但出现了劳动力与耕地、现代农业技术之间过度解耦，以及各种现代农业技术之间的耦合性不足等问题，因而提出了以“人-地-技”耦合发展促进粮食单产健康增长、提高粮食安全保障能力的建议。

关键词: 粮食安全, 粮食单产空间分异, 影响因素, 地理探测器, 中国北方农牧交错带

Abstract:

The argo-pastoral ecotone of northern China is a key area for implementing the national food security strategy, and sustainable increase in grain yield is its main means. The spatial autocorrelation analysis is used to reveal the spatial variation and evolution characteristics of grain yield, which could be used as the basis for dividing farming regions and pastoral regions. A geodetector is then used to reveal the dominant factors and their interactions that control the spatial variation of grain yield, so as to explore the countermeasures to improve grain yield and food security. The main findings are as follows: (1) Grain yield in the argo-pastoral ecotone of northern China showed a relatively stable agglomerative distribution from 2000 to 2020, with the differentiation of natural environments as its basic controlling factor and social production conditions and their coupling levels strengthening the spatial variation characteristics of grain yield. (2) The hot spots of grain yield were concentrated in the plains of northeast and valleys of the southwest, cold spot areas were located in the central erosion and hilly areas, and the sub-hot and sub-cold spot areas in the north and south formed ring-shaped structures around the hot and cold spots. Based on this relatively stable pattern, the hot spot areas could be taken as the agriculture-suitable areas, the sub-hot and sub-cold spot areas as the agriculture-pastoral coupling area, and the cold spot areas as the ecological restoration areas. Based on this division, farming and livestock production could be developed according to the local conditions. (3) The growth pattern of grain yield in 2000—2020 has shifted from labor-led to technology-led approach. However, dissonance arose between labor, arable land, and technology as well as the application efficiency between various modern agricultural technologies. Therefore, “labor-land-technology” coupling development is proposed to sustainably improve grain yield and food security.

Key words: food security, spatial variation of grain yield, influencing factors, geodetector, argo-pastoral ecotone of northern China

孔德明, 郝丽莎, 夏四友, 李红波. 粮食单产视角下中国北方农牧交错带粮食安全研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(5): 782-792.

KONG Deming, HAO Lisha, XIA Siyou, LI Hongbo. Food security in the argo-pastoral ecotone of northern China from the perspective of grain yield[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(5): 782-792.

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方面	指标	符号	指标内涵
社会生产条件	种粮人口规模/10⁴人	X₁	从事粮食生产活动的劳动力保障，粮食生产活动得以进行的基本要素
	粮食播种面积/hm²	X₂	反映了实际用于粮食生产的耕地面积，是粮食生产的基础载体，并且与农业现代化、规模化经营相关，能够影响农机、化肥、农药等的使用效率和规模经济效益
	有效灌溉面积/hm²	X₃	旱作农业生产条件的重要因素之一
	农业机械总动力/10⁴ kW	X₄	现代农业生产中影响粮食单产最重要的生产条件之一
	化肥施用量/t	X₅	现代农业生产中影响粮食单产最重要的生产条件之一
	农村用电量/10⁴ kW·h	X₆	现代农业生产中影响粮食单产最重要的生产条件之一
自然条件	坡度/(°)	X₇	控制北方农牧交错带耕地分异大势的主要地形条件
	海拔/m	X₈	控制北方农牧交错带耕地分异大势的主要地形条件
	土壤肥力	X₉	耕地质量的主要指标，采用土壤肥力综合指数表示^[27]
	年平均气温/℃	X₁₀	控制北方农牧交错带耕地分异大势的主要气候条件，主要影响粮食生产的水热条件
	年日照时数/h	X₁₁	控制北方农牧交错带耕地分异大势的主要气候条件，主要影响粮食生产的水热条件
	年降水量/mm	X₁₂	控制北方农牧交错带耕地分异大势的主要气候条件，主要影响粮食生产的水热条件

指标	2000年		2020年
指标	q	P	q	P
X₁	0.255^**	0.040	0.130^**	0.035
X₂	0.109^**	0.020	0.090^**	0.042
X₃	0.157^***	0.010	0.173^***	0.002
X₄	0.110^**	0.026	0.210^***	0.005
X₅	0.151^**	0.046	0.245^**	0.033
X₆	0.109^**	0.027	0.206^***	0.004
X₇	0.120^**	0.012	0.101^**	0.044
X₈	0.096^**	0.022	0.226^***	0.000
X₉	0.085^**	0.035	0.088^**	0.039
X₁₀	0.081^**	0.047	0.191^***	0.003
X₁₁	0.114^***	0.003	0.178^***	0.007
X₁₂	0.144^***	0.004	0.244^***	0.000

年份	指标	X₁	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	X₆	X₇	X₈	X₉	X₁₀	X₁₁	X₁₂
2000	X₁	-
	X₂	0.534NE	-
	X₃	0.654NE	0.429NE	-
	X₄	0.636NE	0.396NE	0.336NE	-
	X₅	0.760NE	0.545NE	0.540NE	0.525NE	-
	X₆	0.616NE	0.397NE	0.346NE	0.126BE	0.518NE	-
	X₇	0.649NE	0.396NE	0.353NE	0.315NE	0.524NE	0.315NE	-
	X₈	0.665NE	0.377NE	0.408NE	0.293NE	0.502NE	0.297NE	0.439NE	-
	X₉	0.641NE	0.331NE	0.336NE	0.338NE	0.518NE	0.333NE	0.410NE	0.295NE	-
	X₁₀	0.625NE	0.326NE	0.333NE	0.340NE	0.506NE	0.334NE	0.396NE	0.287NE	0.106BE	-
	X₁₁	0.560NE	0.340NE	0.401NE	0.367NE	0.633NE	0.368NE	0.477NE	0.395NE	0.514NE	0.516NE	-
	X₁₂	0.566NE	0.372NE	0.431NE	0.360NE	0.639NE	0.362NE	0.468NE	0.403NE	0.353NE	0.350NE	0.372NE	-
年份		X₁	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	X₆	X₇	X₈	X₉	X₁₀	X₁₁	X₁₂
2020	X₁	-
	X₂	0.377NE	-
	X₃	0.392NE	0.469NE	-
	X₄	0.479NE	0.448NE	0.396NE	-
	X₅	0.554NE	0.602NE	0.474NE	0.413BE	-
	X₆	0.475NE	0.444NE	0.389NE	0.215BE	0.407BE	-
	X₇	0.530NE	0.457NE	0.412NE	0.423NE	0.569NE	0.421NE	-
	X₈	0.531NE	0.431NE	0.502NE	0.517NE	0.634NE	0.514NE	0.424NE	-
	X₉	0.396NE	0.114BE	0.468NE	0.476NE	0.608NE	0.474NE	0.469NE	0.432NE	-
	X₁₀	0.648NE	0.477NE	0.645NE	0.588NE	0.672NE	0.594NE	0.665NE	0.581NE	0.489NE	-
	X₁₁	0.641NE	0.453NE	0.649NE	0.580NE	0.668NE	0.586NE	0.664NE	0.578NE	0.441NE	0.203BE	-
	X₁₂	0.631NE	0.548NE	0.611NE	0.635NE	0.684NE	0.645NE	0.725NE	0.635NE	0.560NE	0.816NE	0.815NE	-

类型	省（区）	县域
宜农区（热点区）	内蒙古自治区	科尔沁左翼中旗、开鲁县、松山区、科尔沁区、科尔沁左翼后旗、宁城县、喀喇沁旗
	辽宁省	建平县、凌源市、龙城区
	河北省	平泉市、承德县、隆化县
	陕西省	甘泉县、富县、黄陵县、洛川县、黄龙县、宜君县、印台区、王益区
	甘肃省	永登县、红古区、皋兰县、西固区、城关区、七里河区、永靖县、积石山县、临夏县、临夏市、临洮县、东乡族自治县、和政县、广河县、康乐县、渭源县
	青海省	民和县、循化县、同仁县、乐都区、互助县、大通县、湟中区、城西区、城北区、城中区、城东区、平安区、化隆县、尖扎县、贵德县
农牧耦合区（次热、次冷点区）	黑龙江省	龙江县、甘南县、泰来县
	吉林省	通榆县、长岭县
	辽宁省	彰武县、朝阳县、北票市、阜新蒙古族自治县、建昌县等
	河北省	赤城县、滦平县、怀安县、万全区等
	山西省	灵丘县、应县、右玉县、山阴县等
	陕西省	定边县、靖边县、安塞区、延川县等
	内蒙古自治区	达拉特旗、清水河县、多伦县、林西县等
	宁夏回族自治区	同心县、隆德县、盐池县、原州区等
	甘肃省	通渭县、安定区、环县、庆城县等
生态修复区（冷点区）	内蒙古自治区	太仆寺旗、化德县、商都县、察哈尔右翼后旗、察哈尔右翼中旗、察哈尔右翼前旗、集宁区、卓资县、兴和县、凉城县、赛罕区、和林格尔县
	河北省	尚义县
	山西省	五寨县、保德县、岢岚县、兴县、岚县、临县、方山县、娄烦县、古交市、离石区、柳林县、中阳县、石楼县、汾西县
	陕西省	吴堡县、绥德县、清涧县

粮食单产视角下中国北方农牧交错带粮食安全研究

Food security in the argo-pastoral ecotone of northern China from the perspective of grain yield

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