中国主要城市居民住房支付能力演化特征研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.464

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

运用房价收入比、滑动T检验和Sen’s斜率估计等方法，对中国27个大中城市2001—2019年的居民住房支付能力演化特征进行了研究，分析了城市居民住房支付能力演化特征与中国房地产调控的关联性。结果表明：（1）中国主要城市的居民住房支付能力在研究期内总体呈较明显的减弱趋势，居民住房支付能力等级“持续下降”和“越级下降”的现象较普遍，居民住房支付能力呈“加速下降”演化特征的城市占比达18.52%。（2）不同城市在居民住房支付能力等级演化特征、房价收入比演化阶段及阶段性演化趋势3个维度上存在较明显的差异性。（3）总体而言，城市居民住房支付能力演化阶段与中国房地产调控政策做出重大调整和地方出台重要房地产调控政策的时间点存在较强关联，住房支付能力的阶段性演化趋势与中国房地产发展情况相一致。研究呼吁建立健全城市居民住房支付能力评估监测制度，及时掌握主要城市居民住房支付能力及其演化规律。坚持“房住不炒”和“稳房价”的总体定位，科学合理制定房地产调控的“一揽子”政策，分区、分类推进城市居民住房支付能力提升工程。

关键词: 住房支付能力, 演化, 房价收入比, 滑动T检验, Sen’s斜率估计, 中国

Abstract:

This study examined variations in housing affordability in 27 large- and medium-sized Chinese cities during 2001—2019 with the methods of house price-to-income ratio, moving T test, and Sen’s slope estimator. The relationships between housing affordability variations in major cities and policies aimed at regulating the real estate market in China were also discussed. The results showed the following: (1) A decreasing trend in housing affordability in major cities was generally present in China during 2001—2019. A “persisting decrease” and “leapfrog decrease” in housing affordability ratings were clearly observed. Moreover, an “accelerating decrease” in housing affordability was observed in 18.52% of the studied cities. (2) Differences between cities in terms of three aspects were observed, namely the dynamics of the housing affordability ratings, the stages of variation in house price-to-income ratio and the corresponding trends. (3) In general, the aforementioned variation stages related to the adjustment of policies aimed at regulating the real estate market in China and the passing of important housing price-control measures by local authorities. Housing affordability trends were generally consistent with the development of the real estate market in China. The study suggests a framework for assessing and monitoring housing affordability to promote its timely estimation and provide insight into its dynamics. A package of policies aimed at regulating the real estate market and projects aimed at improving housing affordability in cities of particular regions were also advocated, in line with the “non-speculative housing” and “stable housing price” strategies.

Key words: housing affordability, variations, house price-to-income ratio, moving T test, Sen’s slope estimator, China

陈潘愉, 童陆亿. 中国主要城市居民住房支付能力演化特征研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(8): 1324-1332.

CHEN Panyu, TONG Luyi. Variations of housing affordability of major cities in China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(8): 1324-1332.

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城市	子序列长度	2001年	2004年	2005年	2006年	2007年	2008年	2009年	2011年	2012年	2013年	2014年		2015年		2016年		2017年		2018年
兰州	3	0.31（1.04）	0.12（2.47^***）							0.03（0.49）
石家庄	3	0.37（1.02）		0.28（2.19^**）								0.98（1.02）
杭州	3	0.52（1.02）		0.48（2.40^***）								0.44（0.00）						0.80（1.04）
深圳	3	-0.14（-0.34）		0.51（1.25）										1.22（1.22）
成都	4	0.52（1.70^**）		0.03（0.31）												0.93（1.70^**）
合肥	4	0.48（1.70^**）		0.09（0.47）												0.34（0.34）
宁波	3	0.39（1.70^**）		0.29（1.44^*）														0.26（0.00）
海口	3	0.26（0.34）		0.07（0.75）														0.84（1.04）
广州	3	0.30（1.71^**）			0.09（0.87）							0.44（1.13）
厦门	3	0.59（1.71^**）			0.35（1.79^**）											0.35（1.02）
呼和浩特	2	-0.43（-2.20^**）			0.03（1.03）															0.87（0.00）
大连	4	0.68（1.88^**）				-0.05（-0.19）					0.11（0.90）
长春	3	-0.50（-0.38）				0.70（1.50^*）					0.07（0.60）
北京	3	0.20（0.75）				0.25（1.97^*）										0.34（0.34）
沈阳	2	-0.07（-1.88^**）				-0.12（-1.97^**）												0.48（1.04）
武汉	5	0.78（3.00^***）					0.09（1.44^*）
南昌	2	0.57（2.70^**）					0.16（3.29^***）
重庆	3	0.40（3.34^***）						0.20（1.58^*）
福州	3	0.60（3.09^***）						0.50（2.34^***）
济南	3	0.18（1.36^*）						0.07（1.09）
贵阳	3	0.06（1.11）						0.42（3.11^***）
长沙	4	0.08（0.87）						0.75（0.00）	0.02（0.00）
银川	3	-0.08（-0.62）						-0.05（-0.73）					0.21（0.75）
南京	4	0.03（0.12）						0.28（1.50^*）									-0.11（0.00）
上海	4	0.28（3.28^***）													1.82（2.85^***）
青岛	5	0.12（2.19^**）													0.80（2.85^***）
西安	3	0.06（1.53^**）																	1.00（1.04）