2 ℃温升情景下中国气象干旱特征变化

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.546

干旱区地理 ›› 2023, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (8): 1227-1237.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.546

2 ℃温升情景下中国气象干旱特征变化

卢冬燕^1,²(),朱秀芳^1,^2,³(),刘婷婷^1,²,张世喆^1,²

1.北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室，北京 100875
2.北京师范大学地理科学学部遥感科学与工程研究院，北京 100875
3.北京师范大学遥感科学国家重点实验室，北京 100875

收稿日期:2022-10-20 修回日期:2022-11-16 出版日期:2023-08-25 发布日期:2023-09-21
通讯作者: 朱秀芳（1982-），女，博士，教授，主要从事农业遥感及自然灾害等方面的研究. E-mail: zhuxiufang@bnu.edu.cn
作者简介:卢冬燕（1999-），女，硕士生，主要从事气象灾害风险评估等方面的研究. E-mail: 202221051098@mail.bnu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上基金项目(42077436);国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFAO606900)

Changes in meteorological drought characteristics in China under the 2 ℃ temperature rise scenario

LU Dongyan^1,²(),ZHU Xiufang^1,^2,³(),LIU Tingting^1,²,ZHANG Shizhe^1,²

1. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2. Institute of Remote Sensing Science and Engineering, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
3. State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Received:2022-10-20 Revised:2022-11-16 Online:2023-08-25 Published:2023-09-21

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

全球变暖造成区域降水模式与蒸散量的改变，从而导致干旱特征变化，分析未来气象干旱对气候变暖的响应特点可以为全球变暖背景下干旱的预防和应对提供决策依据。利用第六次国际耦合模式比较计划的18个气候模式数据计算了标准化降水蒸散指数，基于游程理论识别干旱事件并提取了历史基准期及全球2 ℃温升情景下中国的4个干旱特征指标（干旱频次、平均干旱历时、平均干旱强度和平均干旱峰值），进而分析了2 ℃温升情景下中国及其7个自然地区的气象干旱特征变化情况。结果表明：干旱频次在东部季风区呈南高北低的特点，平均干旱历时、平均干旱强度和平均干旱峰值呈西北高、东南低的特点。在2 ℃温升情景下，干旱频次、平均干旱历时、平均干旱强度和平均干旱峰值的全国均值分别为1.72次·a^-1、2.46个月、1.37和1.70，相比历史基准期分别增加了0.17次·a^-1、0.27个月、0.14和0.25。干旱频次、平均干旱强度和平均干旱峰值的均值在各地区均增加，平均干旱历时的均值仅在东北湿润半湿润温带地区表现为减小，4个干旱特征指标增加值最大的地区均为西北荒漠地区。

关键词: 气象干旱, 全球变暖, 2 ℃温升情景, CMIP6, 中国

Abstract:

Drought is one of the most widespread and destructive natural hazards, causing severe impacts on agriculture, energy, society, and ecology. Global warming results in changes in regional precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns, leading to changes in drought characteristics. China is drought prone and is also seriously affected by climate change. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the characteristics of future meteorological drought response to climate warming in China. In this study, using historical climate simulation data and future projection data from 18 climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), the 2 ℃ temperature rise scenario was determined by applying a time sampling approach, and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) based on the Penman-Monteith method was calculated at a 1-month time scale as the meteorological drought monitoring index. Based on SPEI, drought events were identified using the three-threshold run theory, and four drought-characteristic indicators (drought frequency, average drought duration, average drought intensity, and average drought peak) were extracted for China under the historical reference period and the 2 ℃ temperature rise scenario. Finally, changes in meteorological drought characteristics in China and its seven natural regions were analyzed under the 2 ℃ temperature rise scenario using the future drought-characteristic indicator values minus those of the historical drought-characteristic indicators. The results show clear spatial differentiation patterns in the four drought-characteristic indicators under the 2 ℃ temperature rise scenario. Drought frequency is high in the northwest desert region of China, and is high in the south and low in the north of the eastern monsoon region, while average drought duration, intensity, and peak values are high in the northwest and low in the southeast. From a national perspective, average future values of drought frequency, average drought duration, average drought intensity, and average drought peak are 1.72 times·a^-1, 2.46 months, 1.37, and 1.70 respectively under the 2 ℃ temperature rise scenario, representing increases of 0.17 times·a^-1, 0.27 months, 0.14, and 0.25, respectively, compared with the historical reference period. From a regional perspective, the average values of drought frequency, average drought intensity, and average drought peak increase in all regions, while the average value of average drought duration shows a decrease only in the northeast humid/semi-humid temperate region. The region with the largest increases in values of the four drought-characteristic indicators is the northwest desert region. In summary, based on the results of the multi-model ensemble mean from the 18 CMIP6 models, we predict that more frequent and severe droughts will occur in China, and especially in northwest China, under the 2 ℃ temperature rise scenario. This prediction can serve as a warning in terms of future drought management, and the study can provide a basis for drought prevention and response decision-making in the global warming context.

Key words: meteorological drought, global warming, 2 ℃ temperature rise scenario, CMIP6, China

卢冬燕, 朱秀芳, 刘婷婷, 张世喆. 2 ℃温升情景下中国气象干旱特征变化[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(8): 1227-1237.

LU Dongyan, ZHU Xiufang, LIU Tingting, ZHANG Shizhe. Changes in meteorological drought characteristics in China under the 2 ℃ temperature rise scenario[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(8): 1227-1237.

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序号	模式名称	机构简称	国家	经纬向格点数
1	ACCESS-CM2	CSIRO-ARCCSS	澳大利亚	192×144
2	ACCESS-ESM1-5	CSIRO	澳大利亚	192×145
3	CanESM5	CCCma	加拿大	128×64
4	CAS-ESM2-0	CAS	中国	256×128
5	CMCC-ESM2	CMCC	意大利	288×192
6	EC-Earth3	EC-Earth-Consortium	欧盟	512×256
7	EC-Earth3-Veg	EC-Earth-Consortium	欧盟	512×256
8	EC-Earth3-Veg-LR	EC-Earth-Consortium	欧盟	320×160
9	FGOALS-g3	CAS	中国	180×80
10	FIO-ESM-2-0	FIO-QLNM	中国	288×192
11	GFDL-ESM4	NOAA-GFDL	美国	288×180
12	INM-CM4-8	INM	俄罗斯	180×120
13	INM-CM5-0	INM	俄罗斯	180×120
14	IPSL-CM6A-LR	IPSL	法国	144×143
15	MIROC6	MIROC	日本	256×128
16	MPI-ESM1-2-HR	DKRZ	德国	384×192
17	MPI-ESM1-2-LR	MPI-M	德国	192×96
18	MRI-ESM2-0	MRI	日本	320×160

2 ℃温升情景下中国气象干旱特征变化

Changes in meteorological drought characteristics in China under the 2 ℃ temperature rise scenario

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