干旱地区“代表性人口格网数据集”精度研究——以甘宁青地区为例

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.351

干旱区地理 ›› 2023, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (3): 505-514.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.351

• 区域发展 • 上一篇

干旱地区“代表性人口格网数据集”精度研究——以甘宁青地区为例

肖东升^1,²(),王宁^1,²(),刘志成^1,²

1.西南石油大学土木工程与测绘学院，四川成都 610500
2.西南石油大学测绘遥感地理信息防灾应急研究中心，四川成都 610500

收稿日期:2022-07-14 修回日期:2022-09-07 出版日期:2023-03-25 发布日期:2023-03-31
通讯作者: 王宁
作者简介:肖东升（1974-），男，博士，教授，主要从事地震压埋人员定位、人口空间化与防灾减灾技术研究. E-mail: xiaodsxds@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(51774250);四川省科技计划项目(2019JDR0112);西南石油大学测绘遥感地信与防灾应急青年科技创新团队(2019CXTD07);四川省科技创新苗子工程项目(2020046);四川省科技厅区域创新合作项目(23QYCX0053)

Accuracy of “representative population grid dataset” in arid areas: A case of Gansu-Ningxia-Qinghai region

XIAO Dongsheng^1,²(),WANG Ning^1,²(),LIU Zhicheng^1,²

1. School of Civil Engineering and Surveying, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, Sichuan, China
2. Disaster Prevention and Emergency Response Research Center of Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, Sichuan, China

Received:2022-07-14 Revised:2022-09-07 Online:2023-03-25 Published:2023-03-31
Contact: Ning WANG

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

高精度的人口格网数据集在风险评价、灾害应急、生态环境保护、区域发展与规划等领域具有重要价值。输入数据精度和模型选择的不同导致其具有不同的特点与优势，因此评价代表性数据集的精度，分析数据集的适用条件意义重大。研究评估了世界人口（WorldPop）数据集和世界第四版网格化人口（GPWv4）数据集在中国西北干旱地区甘肃省、宁夏回族自治区和青海省的精度；以中国人口普查数据的最佳可用单位（乡镇行政区划）为研究单元，将WorldPop和GPWv4数据集与2020年第七次人口普查数据进行相关性分析，计算统计误差和相对误差的空间分布，定量地评价各个数据集的精度；通过目视估计定性地分析数据集的映射性能，最后讨论了数据集的误差来源。统计误差结果表明：WorldPop数据集的精度更高，其相关系数（r）、均方根误（RMSE）、平均绝对误差（MAE）和平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）分别达到0.76、23016、0.73和0.60，而GPWv4数据集的上述统计结果分别为0.70、22297、0.75和0.58。同时，由相对误差的空间分布可知，WorldPop数据集准确估计的区域更多。目视估计结果表明：2种人口格网数据集的映射性能类似，都具有东部人口稠密、西部人口稀疏的特点。针对干旱地区人口格网数据集精度的评价研究，有利于分析数据集的误差来源，指导数据集的合理使用。在未来研究中，使用人类生活的辅助数据，生成干旱地区特有的人口分布模式，从而提高西北干旱区域人口数据集的精度。

关键词: 人口格网数据集, GPWv4数据集, WorldPop数据集, 精度评价, 中国西北干旱地区

Abstract:

High-accuracy population grid datasets are of great value in the fields of risk assessment, disaster emergency response, ecological environment protection, and regional development. The characteristics and advantages of the datasets vary because of the different input data accuracy and model selection. Therefore, it is of great significance to evaluate the accuracy of datasets and analyze the applicable conditions of datasets. To this end, this study evaluated the accuracy of the WorldPop and GPWv4 datasets in the arid areas of the Gansu Province, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, and the Qinghai Province of northwest China. The accuracy of each dataset was quantitatively evaluated by calculating the spatial distribution of statistical and relative errors. Taking the best available unit of census data of China (township administrative division) as the research unit, the correlation analysis was conducted between the WorldPop and GPWv4 datasets and the seventh census data in 2020. The spatial distribution of statistical and relative errors is obtained through correlation analysis to quantitatively evaluate the accuracy of each dataset. Furthermore, the mapping performance of the dataset was qualitatively analyzed by visual estimation. Finally, the error sources of the dataset are discussed. The statistical error results show that WorldPop has higher accuracy than GPWv4. The correlation coefficient (r), root mean square error, average absolute error, and average absolute percentage error of WorldPop are 0.76, 23016, 0.73, and 0.60, respectively, while those of GPWv4 are 0.70, 22297, 0.75, and 0.58, respectively. Concurrently, according to the spatial distribution of the relative error, WorldPop accurately estimates the population of more areas. The visual estimation results show that the mapping performance of the two population grid datasets is similar, with the characteristics of a dense and sparse population in the east and west of the study area, respectively. This study on the accuracy of population grid datasets in arid areas is conducive to analyzing the error sources of datasets and guiding the rational use of datasets. In future research, it would be a beneficial direction to use the auxiliary data of human life to generate a unique population distribution pattern in an arid area to improve the accuracy of population datasets in the northwest arid area of China.

Key words: population grid dataset, GPWv4 data set, WorldPop data set, accuracy evaluation, arid area in northwest China

肖东升,王宁,刘志成. 干旱地区“代表性人口格网数据集”精度研究——以甘宁青地区为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(3): 505-514.

XIAO Dongsheng,WANG Ning,LIU Zhicheng. Accuracy of “representative population grid dataset” in arid areas: A case of Gansu-Ningxia-Qinghai region[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(3): 505-514.

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数据集	统计指标	时间分辨率	辅助数据	空间分辨率/m	空间化方法
WorldPop	人口密度	2000、2005、2010、2015、 2020年	土地使用、居住区、夜间卫星图像、道路、制备、地形	100	随机森林模型
A-WorldPop	联合国调整后的人口密度	2000、2005、2010、2015、 2020年	土地使用、居住区、夜间卫星图像、道路、制备、地形、联合国历史人口估计数	100	随机森林模型
GPWv4	人口密度	2000—2020年	水域、行政区划	1000	面积权重法
A-GPWv4	联合国调整后的人口密度	2000—2020年	水域、行政区划、联合国历史人口估计数	1000	面积权重法

数据集	r	RMSE	MAE	MAPE
GPWv4	0.64	26598	1.41	1.26
A-GPWv4	0.69	22506	0.81	0.64
WorldPop	0.74	23654	0.81	0.69
A-WorldPop	0.75	16164	0.45	0.16

干旱地区“代表性人口格网数据集”精度研究——以甘宁青地区为例

Accuracy of “representative population grid dataset” in arid areas: A case of Gansu-Ningxia-Qinghai region

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数据集	r	RMSE	MAE	MAPE
GPWv4	0.70	22297	0.75	0.58
A-GPWv4	0.75	15798	0.40	0.10
WorldPop	0.76	23016	0.73	0.60
A-WorldPop	0.76	15798	0.40	0.10