中国省域经济韧性与生态效率测度及其协同演化分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2023.178

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

统筹经济韧性与生态效率间的动态平衡关系是实现区域可持续发展的重要抓手。以中国30个省份为研究对象，采用组合权重模型、全局非期望超效率SBM模型分别测度国内省级区域适应性循环理论与驱动-压力-状态-响应（DPSR）模型分析框架下的经济韧性、投入产出理论下的生态效率，并通过改进的哈肯模型刻画经济韧性与生态效率间的协同演化特征。结果表明：（1）经济韧性能力在样本观测期内显著上升，区域差异明显扩张，南北区域发展不平衡，存在一定的“东-中-东北-西”阶梯效应。（2）生态效率水平总体呈下降的趋势，区域差异历经“扩张-缩小-再扩张”变化，存在显著性阶梯失衡现象，空间呈“沿海-内陆”递减分布。（3）经济韧性与生态效率的协同演化历经稳定、下降及稳定三阶段，区域间基本不存在阶梯性失衡现象，经济韧性作为协同演化的序参量，主导区域可持续发展。

关键词: 经济韧性, 生态效率, 协同演化, 全局非期望超效率SBM模型, 中国

Abstract:

Integrating the dynamic balance between economic resilience and eco-efficiency is important for achieving sustainable regional development. This study focuses on 30 provincial units in China from 2001 to 2020 as the research objects. Economic resilience, measured within the framework of the domestic provincial, regional adaptive cycle theory, and the driving-pressure-state-response (DPSR) model, was assessed using the combined weight model. Eco-efficiency, evaluated under the input-output theory, employed the global undesired superefficient slack based measurement (SBM) model. The synergistic evolutionary characteristics of economic resilience and eco-efficiency were elucidated using an improved Harken model. The results indicate the following factors: (1) Economic resilience substantially increased during the sample observation period, accompanied by notable regional differences and unbalanced development in the north and south regions, exemplifying a certain “East-Central-Northeast-West” ladder effect. (2) The overall trend of eco-efficiency levels decreased, with regional differences undergoing the phases of “expansion-shrinking-re-expansion”. This was marked by a considerable step imbalance and a decreasing spatial distribution from “coastal-inland”. (3) The synergistic evolution between economic resilience and eco-efficiency progressed through three stages of stabilization, decline, and stability. Importantly, no step imbalance was observed between these regions. Economic resilience, serving as a sequential parameter of synergistic evolution, emerges as the dominant factor influencing the sustainable development of the region.

Key words: economic resilience, eco-efficiency, synergistic evolution, global undesired superefficient SBM model, China

周霞, 王佳. 中国省域经济韧性与生态效率测度及其协同演化分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(2): 319-331.

ZHOU Xia, WANG Jia. Measurement and synergistic evolution analysis of the economic resilience and eco-efficiency of provincial regions in China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(2): 319-331.

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指标类别	准则层	指标层	指标含义及方向	权重
开发驱动	人口总量	常住人口	美好生活向往基数（+）	0.06757
	城镇化水平	城镇化率	常住人口城镇化率（+）	0.03520
	生活消费	城镇恩格尔系数	城镇居民消费水平（-）	0.03729
	生活消费	农村恩格尔系数	农村居民消费水平（-）	0.04408
维持承压	外贸依存	外贸依存度*	城市贸易压力（-）	0.04112
	失业风险	城镇登记失业率	失业对经济的冲击（-）	0.02680
	金融风险	金融机构贷存比	金融机构流动性风险（-）	0.04586
抵抗释放	经济规模	人均GDP*	经济发展的稳定性（+）	0.04943
	产业结构	产业结构多样化指数	经济稳定器（+）	0.04281
	社会保障	失业保险参保人员/就业人数	社会保障能力（+）	0.05720
	资产投资	固定资产投资*	地区投资规模（+）	0.07746
	消费零售	社会消费品零售总额*	地区市场规模（+）	0.06833
恢复重组	资源调配	一般公共预算收入*	政府调动资源的能力（+）	0.06638
	居民抵抗力	人均可支配收入*	反映居民抗风险能力（+）	0.04887
	资本投入	科学技术投入*	创新投入水平（+）	0.09309
	成果数量	专利申请受理数	创新成果产出水平（+）	0.11595
	成果质量	专利申请质量	创新成果产出质量（+）	0.04952
	储备力量	每万人高等在校学生数	人力资本水平（+）	0.03306

指标类别	准则层	指标层	单位	具体说明
投入	经济要素	资本存量	10⁸元	永续盘存法
		年末就业人数	10⁴人	劳动力投入
	自然资源	建设用地面积	km²	土地投入
		能源消耗总量	10⁴ t标准煤	能源投入
		用水总量	10⁸ m³	水资源投入
产出	期望产出	实际地区生产总值*	10⁴元	经济产出
	非期望产出	工业废水排放量	10⁴ t	液态
		烟尘排放量	10⁴ t	固态
		SO₂排放量	10⁴ t	气态
		CO₂排放量	10⁴ t	气态

假设条件	演化方程	控制参量	结论
$q 1 = E G G q 2 = J R R$	$l n E G G (t) = 0.816068 l n E G G (t - 1) * * * - 0.079511 l n E G G (t - 1) l n J R R (t - 1) - 0.151525 l n J R R (t) = 1.001325 l n J R R (t - 1) * * * - 0.005506 l n E G G (t - 1) 2 + 0.045938$	$λ 1 = 0.183932$ $λ 2 = - 0.001325$ $a = - 0.079511$ $b = - 0.005506$	a.拟合方程成立 b.不满足“绝热近似”假设 c.假设不成立
$q 1 = J R R q 2 = E G G$	$l n J R R (t) = 0.995228 l n J R R (t - 1) * * * - 0.005961 l n J R R (t - 1) l n E G G (t - 1) + 0.037348 l n E G G (t) = 0.925077 l n E G G (t - 1) * * * - 0.05628 l n J R R (t - 1) 2 - 0.043988$	$λ 1 = 0.004772$ $λ 2 = 0.074923$ $a = 0.005961$ $b = - 0.05628$	a.拟合方程成立 b.满足“绝热近似”假设 c.假设成立