中国省域经济韧性与生态效率测度及其协同演化分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2023.178

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

统筹经济韧性与生态效率间的动态平衡关系是实现区域可持续发展的重要抓手。以中国30个省份为研究对象，采用组合权重模型、全局非期望超效率SBM模型分别测度国内省级区域适应性循环理论与驱动-压力-状态-响应（DPSR）模型分析框架下的经济韧性、投入产出理论下的生态效率，并通过改进的哈肯模型刻画经济韧性与生态效率间的协同演化特征。结果表明：（1）经济韧性能力在样本观测期内显著上升，区域差异明显扩张，南北区域发展不平衡，存在一定的“东-中-东北-西”阶梯效应。（2）生态效率水平总体呈下降的趋势，区域差异历经“扩张-缩小-再扩张”变化，存在显著性阶梯失衡现象，空间呈“沿海-内陆”递减分布。（3）经济韧性与生态效率的协同演化历经稳定、下降及稳定三阶段，区域间基本不存在阶梯性失衡现象，经济韧性作为协同演化的序参量，主导区域可持续发展。

关键词: 经济韧性, 生态效率, 协同演化, 全局非期望超效率SBM模型, 中国

Abstract:

Integrating the dynamic balance between economic resilience and eco-efficiency is important for achieving sustainable regional development. This study focuses on 30 provincial units in China from 2001 to 2020 as the research objects. Economic resilience, measured within the framework of the domestic provincial, regional adaptive cycle theory, and the driving-pressure-state-response (DPSR) model, was assessed using the combined weight model. Eco-efficiency, evaluated under the input-output theory, employed the global undesired superefficient slack based measurement (SBM) model. The synergistic evolutionary characteristics of economic resilience and eco-efficiency were elucidated using an improved Harken model. The results indicate the following factors: (1) Economic resilience substantially increased during the sample observation period, accompanied by notable regional differences and unbalanced development in the north and south regions, exemplifying a certain “East-Central-Northeast-West” ladder effect. (2) The overall trend of eco-efficiency levels decreased, with regional differences undergoing the phases of “expansion-shrinking-re-expansion”. This was marked by a considerable step imbalance and a decreasing spatial distribution from “coastal-inland”. (3) The synergistic evolution between economic resilience and eco-efficiency progressed through three stages of stabilization, decline, and stability. Importantly, no step imbalance was observed between these regions. Economic resilience, serving as a sequential parameter of synergistic evolution, emerges as the dominant factor influencing the sustainable development of the region.

Key words: economic resilience, eco-efficiency, synergistic evolution, global undesired superefficient SBM model, China

周霞, 王佳. 中国省域经济韧性与生态效率测度及其协同演化分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(2): 319-331.

ZHOU Xia, WANG Jia. Measurement and synergistic evolution analysis of the economic resilience and eco-efficiency of provincial regions in China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(2): 319-331.

图/表 10

图1

表1

表2

图2

图3

图4

图5

表3

2000—2020年哈肯模型计算结果"

假设条件	演化方程	控制参量	结论
$q 1 = E G G q 2 = J R R$	$l n E G G (t) = 0.816068 l n E G G (t - 1) * * * - 0.079511 l n E G G (t - 1) l n J R R (t - 1) - 0.151525 l n J R R (t) = 1.001325 l n J R R (t - 1) * * * - 0.005506 l n E G G (t - 1) 2 + 0.045938$	$λ 1 = 0.183932$ $λ 2 = - 0.001325$ $a = - 0.079511$ $b = - 0.005506$	a.拟合方程成立 b.不满足“绝热近似”假设 c.假设不成立
$q 1 = J R R q 2 = E G G$	$l n J R R (t) = 0.995228 l n J R R (t - 1) * * * - 0.005961 l n J R R (t - 1) l n E G G (t - 1) + 0.037348 l n E G G (t) = 0.925077 l n E G G (t - 1) * * * - 0.05628 l n J R R (t - 1) 2 - 0.043988$	$λ 1 = 0.004772$ $λ 2 = 0.074923$ $a = 0.005961$ $b = - 0.05628$	a.拟合方程成立 b.满足“绝热近似”假设 c.假设成立

表3

图6

图7

参考文献 33

[1]	Mou Y, Luo Y, Su Z, et al. Evaluating the dynamic sustainability and resilience of a hybrid urban system: Case of Chengdu, China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2021, 291: 125719, doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.125719.
[2]	周成, 赵亚玲, 张旭红, 等. 黄河流域城市生态韧性与效率时空演化特征及协调发展分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(9): 1514-1523.
	[ Zhou Cheng, Zhao Yaling, Zhang Xuhong, et al. Spatiotemporal evolutionary characteristics and coordinated development of urban ecological resilience and efficiency in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(9): 1514-1523. ]
[3]	白帅, 吴金华, 王祯. 河南省城市韧性与土地利用效率的耦合协调性[J]. 水土保持通报, 2022, 42(1): 308-316.
	[ Bai Shuai, Wu Jinhua, Wang Zhen. Coupling relationship between urban resilience and landuse efficiency in He’nan Province[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2022, 42(1): 308-316. ]
[4]	张智光. 绿色经济模式的演进脉络与超循环经济趋势[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2021, 31(1): 78-89.
	[ Zhang Zhiguang. Evolution paths of green economy modes and their trend of hypercycle economy[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2021, 31(1): 78-89. ]
[5]	习近平. 高举中国特色社会主义伟大旗帜为全面建设社会主义现代化国家而团结奋斗——在中国共产党第二十次全国代表大会上的报告[EB/OL]. [2022-10-16]. http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2022-10/25/content_5721685.htm.
	[ Xi Jinping. Hold high the great banner of socialism with chinese characteristics and strive in unity to build a modern socialist country in all respects: Report to the 20^th National Congress of the Communist Party of China[EB/OL]. [2022-10-16]. http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2022-10/25/content_5721685.htm. ]
[6]	巩灿娟, 张晓青, 徐成龙. 中国三大城市群经济韧性的时空演变及协同提升研究[J]. 软科学, 2022, 36(5): 38-46.
	[ Gong Canjuan, Zhang Xiaoqing, Xu Chenglong. Study on the spatial-temporal evolution and collaborative improvement of economic resilience of three major urban agglomerations in China[J]. Soft Science, 2022, 36(5): 38-46. ]
[7]	王晓, 李娇娇, 王星苏. 创新型城市试点有效提升了城市经济韧性吗?[J]. 投资研究, 2022, 41(5): 120-143.
	[ Wang Xiao, Li Jiaojiao, Wang Xingsu. Does the pilot of innovative cities effectively improved the urban economic resilience?[J]. Review of Investment Studies, 2022, 41(5): 120-143. ]
[8]	李连刚, 张平宇, 谭俊涛, 等. 韧性概念演变与区域经济韧性研究进展[J]. 人文地理, 2019, 34(2): 1-7, 151.
	[ Li Liangang, Zhang Pingyu, Tan Juntao, et al. Review on the evolution of resilience concept and research progress on regional economic resilience[J]. Human Geography, 2019, 34(2): 1-7, 151. ]
[9]	孙久文, 孙翔宇. 区域经济韧性研究进展和在中国应用的探索[J]. 经济地理, 2017, 37(10): 1-9.
	[ Sun Jiuwen, Sun Xiangyu. Research progress of regional economic resilience and exploration of its application in China[J]. Economic Geography, 2017, 37(10): 1-9. ] doi: 10.2307/142031
[10]	王素素, 卢现祥, 李磊. 中国经济韧性的南北差异及形成机理[J]. 南方经济, 2022(6): 77-98. doi: 10.19592/j.cnki.scje.400156
	[ Wang Susu, Lu Xianxiang, Li Lei. The north-south differences in China’s economic resilience and its formation mechanism[J]. South China Journal of Economics, 2022(6): 77-98. ] doi: 10.19592/j.cnki.scje.400156
[11]	Schaltegger S, Sturm A. Ökologische rationalität: Ansatzpunkte zur ausgestaltung von ökologieorientierten managementinstrumenten[J]. Die Unternehmung, 1990, 44(4): 273-290.
[12]	阎晓, 涂建军. 黄河流域资源型城市生态效率时空演变及驱动因素[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(1): 223-239.
	[ Yan Xiao, Tu Jianjun. The spatio-temporal evolution and driving factors of eco-efficiency of resource-based cities in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2021, 36(1): 223-239. ] doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20210115
[13]	崔许锋, 王雨菲, 张光宏. 面向低碳发展的农业生态效率测度与时空演变分析——基于SBM-ESDA模型[J]. 农业经济问题, 2022(9): 47-61.
	[ Cui Xufeng, Wang Yufei, Zhang Guanghong. Low-carbon oriented measurement and spatiotemporal evolution of agricultural eco-efficiency in China: Based on SBM-ESDA model[J]. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2022(9): 47-61. ]
[14]	李爽, 郭燕青. 新能源汽车企业创新生态效率测度——基于2012—2015年面板数据的实证分析[J]. 软科学, 2017, 31(4): 23-26.
	[ Li Shuang, Guo Yanqing. The measurement on innovation ecological efficiency of new energy automobile enterprises: Empirical analysis based on panel data from 2012 to 2015[J]. Soft Science, 2017, 31(4): 23-26. ]
[15]	Meeusen W, van den Broeck J. Efficiency estimation from Cobb-Douglas production functions with composed error[J]. International Economic Review, 1977, 18(2): 435-444. doi: 10.2307/2525757
[16]	Charnes A, Cooper W W, Rhodes E. Measuring the efficiency of decision making units[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 1978, 2(6): 429-444. doi: 10.1016/0377-2217(78)90138-8
[17]	Ruan J, Chen Y, Yang Z. Assessment of temporal and spatial progress of urban resilience in Guangzhou under rainstorm scenarios[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2021, 66: 102578, doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102578.
[18]	Simmie J, Martin R. The economic resilience of regions: Towards an evolutionary approach[J]. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 2010, 3(1): 27-43. doi: 10.1093/cjres/rsp029
[19]	张悦倩, 刘全龙, 李新春. 长三角城市群城市韧性与新型城镇化的耦合协调研究[J]. 城市问题, 2022(5): 17-27.
	[ Zhang Yueqian, Liu Quanlong, Li Xinchun. Spatiotemporal evolution of the coupling coordination of urban resilience and new urbanization in the urban agglomeration of Yangtze River delta[J]. Urban Problems, 2022(5): 17-27. ]
[20]	Tone K. A slacks-based measure of efficiency in data envelopment analysis[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2001, 130(3): 498-509. doi: 10.1016/S0377-2217(99)00407-5
[21]	侯孟阳, 姚顺波. 中国城市生态效率测定及其时空动态演变[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2018, 28(3): 13-21.
	[ Hou Mengyang, Yao Shunbo. Measuremenl and temporal-spalial dynamic evolulion of urban eco-ellicieny in China[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2018, 28(3): 13-21. ]
[22]	Tone K. A slacks-based measure of super-efficiency in data envelopment analysis[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2002, 143(1): 32-41. doi: 10.1016/S0377-2217(01)00324-1
[23]	刘华军, 石印. 中国农业生态效率的空间分异与提升潜力[J]. 广东财经大学学报, 2020, 35(6): 51-64.
	[ Liu Huajun, Shi Yin. Spatial differentiation and promotion potential of agricultural eco-efficiency in China[J]. Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, 2020, 35(6): 51-64. ]
[24]	李琳, 刘莹. 中国区域经济协同发展的驱动因素——基于哈肯模型的分阶段实证研究[J]. 地理研究, 2014, 33(9): 1603-1616. doi: 10.11821/dlyj201409002
	[ Li Lin, Liu Ying. The driving forces of regional economic synergistic development in China: Empirical study by stages based on Haken model[J]. Geographical Research, 2014, 33(9): 1603-1616. ] doi: 10.11821/dlyj201409002
[25]	李亚丽, 杨粉莉, 杨联安, 等. 近40 a榆林市土地利用空间格局变化及影响因素分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2021, 44(4): 1011-1021.
	[ Li Yali, Yang Fenli, Yang Lian’an, et al. Spatial pattern changes and influencing factors of land use in Yulin City in the past 40 years[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(4): 1011-1021. ]
[26]	张军, 吴桂英, 张吉鹏. 中国省际物质资本存量估算: 1952—2000[J]. 经济研究, 2004(10): 35-44.
	[ Zhang Jun, Wu Guiying, Zhang Jun. The estimation of China’s provincial capital stock: 1952—2000[J]. Economic Research Journal, 2004(10): 35-44. ]
[27]	Guan Y, Shan Y, Huang Q, et al. Assessment to China’s recent emission pattern shifts[J]. Earth’s Future, 2021, 9(11): e2021EF002241, doi: 10.1029/2021EF002241.
[28]	徐圆, 张林玲. 中国城市的经济韧性及由来: 产业结构多样化视角[J]. 财贸经济, 2019, 40(7): 110-126.
	[ Xu Yuan, Zhang Linling. The economic resilience of Chinese cities and its origin: From the perspective of diversification of industrial structure[J]. Finance & Trade Economics, 2019, 40(7): 110-126. ]
[29]	陈晓兰, 孟庆港, 史佳凝, 等. 中国八大综合经济区生态效率测度及时空演进分析[J]. 经济与管理评论, 2022, 38(2): 109-121.
	[ Chen Xiaolan, Meng Qinggang, Shi Jianing, et al. Ecological efficiency measurement and analysis of spatial-temporal evolution in eight comprehensive economic areas of China[J]. Review of Economy and Management, 2022, 38(2): 109-121. ]
[30]	谢会强, 杨丹, 张宽. 中国城市经济韧性的时空演化及网络结构研究[J]. 华东经济管理, 2022, 36(11): 64-74.
	[ Xie Huiqiang, Yang Dan, Zhang Kuan. Spatio-temporal evolution and network structure of urban economic resilience in China[J]. East China Economic Management, 2022, 36(11): 64-74. ]
[31]	高粼彤, 孟霏, 田启波. 中国经济韧性时空演化及影响因素研究——基于数字金融视角[J]. 经济问题探索, 2022(8): 57-74.
	[ Gao Lintong, Meng Fei, Tian Qibo. Study on the temporal and spatial evolution and influencing factors of China’s economic resilience: From the perspective of digital finance[J]. Inquiry into Economic Issues, 2022(8): 57-74. ]
[32]	郑德凤, 郝帅, 孙才志, 等. 中国大陆生态效率时空演化分析及其趋势预测[J]. 地理研究, 2018, 37(5): 1034-1046. doi: 10.11821/dlyj201805014
	[ Zheng Defeng, Hao Shuai, Sun Caizhi, et al. Spatio-temporal pattern evolution of eco-efficiency and the forecast in mainland of China[J]. Geographical Research, 2018, 37(5): 1034-1046. ] doi: 10.11821/dlyj201805014
[33]	沈伟腾, 胡求光, 李加林, 等. 中国区域生态效率的时空演变及空间互动特征[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(9): 2149-2162. doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20200909
	[ Shen Weiteng, Hu Qiuguang, Li Jialin, et al. Spatio-temporal evolution and spatial interaction of regional eco-efficiency in China[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020, 35(9): 2149-2162. ] doi: 10.31497/zrzyxb.20200909

指标类别	准则层	指标层	指标含义及方向	权重
开发驱动	人口总量	常住人口	美好生活向往基数（+）	0.06757
	城镇化水平	城镇化率	常住人口城镇化率（+）	0.03520
	生活消费	城镇恩格尔系数	城镇居民消费水平（-）	0.03729
	生活消费	农村恩格尔系数	农村居民消费水平（-）	0.04408
维持承压	外贸依存	外贸依存度*	城市贸易压力（-）	0.04112
	失业风险	城镇登记失业率	失业对经济的冲击（-）	0.02680
	金融风险	金融机构贷存比	金融机构流动性风险（-）	0.04586
抵抗释放	经济规模	人均GDP*	经济发展的稳定性（+）	0.04943
	产业结构	产业结构多样化指数	经济稳定器（+）	0.04281
	社会保障	失业保险参保人员/就业人数	社会保障能力（+）	0.05720
	资产投资	固定资产投资*	地区投资规模（+）	0.07746
	消费零售	社会消费品零售总额*	地区市场规模（+）	0.06833
恢复重组	资源调配	一般公共预算收入*	政府调动资源的能力（+）	0.06638
	居民抵抗力	人均可支配收入*	反映居民抗风险能力（+）	0.04887
	资本投入	科学技术投入*	创新投入水平（+）	0.09309
	成果数量	专利申请受理数	创新成果产出水平（+）	0.11595
	成果质量	专利申请质量	创新成果产出质量（+）	0.04952
	储备力量	每万人高等在校学生数	人力资本水平（+）	0.03306

指标类别	准则层	指标层	单位	具体说明
投入	经济要素	资本存量	10⁸元	永续盘存法
		年末就业人数	10⁴人	劳动力投入
	自然资源	建设用地面积	km²	土地投入
		能源消耗总量	10⁴ t标准煤	能源投入
		用水总量	10⁸ m³	水资源投入
产出	期望产出	实际地区生产总值*	10⁴元	经济产出
	非期望产出	工业废水排放量	10⁴ t	液态
		烟尘排放量	10⁴ t	固态
		SO₂排放量	10⁴ t	气态
		CO₂排放量	10⁴ t	气态