1981—2018年内蒙古典型草原季节性冻土对气候变化的响应

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2021.317

干旱区地理 ›› 2022, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (3): 684-694.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2021.317

1981—2018年内蒙古典型草原季节性冻土对气候变化的响应

苏玥¹,张存厚^1,²(),阿木尔萨那³,李轲⁴

1.内蒙古自治区气象灾害监测预警与人工影响天气中心,内蒙古呼和浩特 010051
2.内蒙古自治区生态与农业气象中心,内蒙古呼和浩特 010051
3.内蒙古自治区呼和浩特市气象局,内蒙古呼和浩特 010000
4.江苏省徐州市气象局,江苏徐州 221000

收稿日期:2021-07-13 修回日期:2021-10-26 出版日期:2022-05-25 发布日期:2022-05-31
通讯作者: 张存厚
作者简介:苏玥（1990-）,女,在读硕士,工程师,主要从事气象灾害监测及预警研究. E-mail: 1493117872@qq.com
基金资助:
内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2019MS04006);内蒙古自治区科技计划项目(2021GG0020);内蒙古自治区科技计划重点项目(201 802123)

Response of seasonal frozen soil to climate change on a typical steppe of Inner Mongolia during 1981—2018

SU Yue¹,ZHANG Cunhou^1,²(), Amuersana³,LI Ke⁴

1. Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Warning Center, Hohhot 010051, Inner Mongolia, China
2. Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Ecological and Agricultural Meteorology Center, Hohhot 010051, Inner Mongolia, China
3. Hohhot Bureau of Meteorology, Hohhot 010000, Inner Mongolia, China
4. Xuzhou Bureau of Meteorology, Xuzhou 221000, Jiangsu, China

Received:2021-07-13 Revised:2021-10-26 Online:2022-05-25 Published:2022-05-31
Contact: Cunhou ZHANG

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以1981—2018年内蒙古典型草原季节性冻土为研究对象,通过气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall法、多元线性回归等方法,分析最大冻土时空分布特征、年际、年代际变化,研究影响最大冻土深度变化的气象因子。结果表明：（1）内蒙古典型草原季节性冻土冻结初日在9—11月,终日在4—6月,年内最大冻土深度出现在2—3月,深度在100~280 cm之间。（2）最大冻土深度年际变化分为下开口抛物线型、上开口抛物线型、正弦曲线型,从最大冻土深度气候倾向率看呈现减小趋势的站点有68%。（3）最大冻土深度年代际变化分为逐年代递减、减-增型和无明显变化规律,50%的站点在1989年以后最大冻土深度发生突变。（4）多元线性回归表明气温冻结指数、年平均风速、年极端最低气温对最大冻土深度产生显著影响。该研究揭示了最大冻土深度存在退化的事实,为草原应对气候变化提供指导,为陆地土壤和大气碳循环交换的研究给出提示。

关键词: 季节性冻土, 气候变化, 典型草原, 多元线性回归

Abstract:

This study investigates patterns of seasonally frozen soil in the context of climate change and assesses meteorological factors affecting variations in maximum frozen soil depth. Spatial and temporal characteristics of maximum frozen soil depth were evaluated for an area of typical steppe in Inner Mongolia, northern China over the most recent 38 years (1981—2018). Interannual and interdecadal variations were analyzed statistically using climate tendency rate, cumulative distance level, Mann-Kendall methods, and multiple linear regression. Meteorological data such as temperature, wind speed and relative humidity were used to analyze potential controls on maximum frozen soil depth. The study found that, for seasonally frozen soil of the Inner Mongolian steppe: (1) Soil typically freezes from September-November and thaws from April-June, with a maximum frozen soil depth of 100-280 cm attained in February-March. (2) Interannual variations in maximum frost depth can be classified into three patterns (lower open parabolic, upper open parabolic, and sinusoidal), with 68% of stations showing a trend of decreasing depth over time. (3) Interdecadal variations can also be divided into three types (decreasing chronologically, decreasing then increasing, and no clear pattern), with 50% of stations recording progressively shallower depths before 1989 followed by a change to a trend of thickening with time. (4) Multiple linear regression suggests that temperature freezing index, annual mean wind speed, and annual extreme minimum temperature had significant effects on maximum frozen soil depth.

Key words: seasonal frozen soil, climate change, typical steppe, multi-variate linear regression

苏玥,张存厚,阿木尔萨那,李轲. 1981—2018年内蒙古典型草原季节性冻土对气候变化的响应[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(3): 684-694.

SU Yue,ZHANG Cunhou, Amuersana,LI Ke. Response of seasonal frozen soil to climate change on a typical steppe of Inner Mongolia during 1981—2018[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(3): 684-694.

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站点	克什克腾旗	卓资县	东乌珠穆沁旗	高力板镇	阿巴嘎旗	扎赉特旗	正镶白旗	集宁区	凉城县	阿鲁科尔沁旗	商都县
气候倾向率	-3.0532^**	-1.9700^**	-1.6186^**	-1.3624^**	-1.0748^**	-1.0060^**	-0.9537^**	-0.8673^**	-0.7032^**	-0.4415	-0.3507
站点	巴林右旗	正蓝旗	化德县	太仆寺旗	察哈尔右翼前旗	察哈尔右翼后旗	察哈尔右翼中旗	锡林浩特市	扎鲁特旗	科尔沁左翼中旗	西乌珠穆沁旗
气候倾向率	-0.3400	-0.3173	-0.2984	-0.1627	0.2836	0.3624	0.4241	0.4678	0.8530^**	1.1050^**	1.3071^**

气象站点	1981—1990年	1991—2000年	2001—2010年	2011—2018年
高力板镇	168.9	154.5	138.6	131.9
克什克腾旗	264.1	232.0	206.1	176.9
卓资县	217.9	187.3	172.0	159.8
阿巴嘎旗	260.1	217.8	222.7	226.4
西乌珠穆沁旗	164.5	146.9	176.7	195.9
扎鲁特旗	124.4	107.8	126.3	150.1
科尔沁左翼中旗	127.1	105.3	142.9	151.8
锡林浩特市	234.3	230.9	242.1	249.0
太仆寺旗	232.3	209.9	220.1	226.0
察哈尔右翼前旗	133.3	118.0	124.1	144.0
察哈尔右翼中旗	198.1	180.6	195.8	207.4
察哈尔右翼后旗	209.9	183.9	193.7	220.9
集宁区	147.3	109.8	110.8	121.9
扎赉特旗	203.9	196.6	168.8	182.4
东乌珠穆沁旗	283.8	246.2	230.6	238.5
商都县	179.4	154.4	141.9	177.5
巴林右旗	173.2	152.8	147.2	167.6
正镶白旗	226.9	193.7	191.4	200.5
凉城县	149.9	143.8	118.1	135.9
化德县	186.5	160.0	179.5	176.6
阿鲁科尔沁旗	168.4	148.5	159.3	155.1
正蓝旗	233.7	211.5	237.4	213.8

气象因子	年平均气温	气温冻结指数	地面冻结指数	气温年较差	年极端最高气温	年极端最低气温	平均相对湿度
Pearson相关系数	-0.698^**	-0.680^**	0.569^**	0.386^**	-0.112^**	-0.577^**	0.371^**
气象因子	年降水量	最大积雪深度	平均40 cm地温	平均80 cm地温	日照时数	年平均风速
Pearson相关系数	-0.147^**	0.167^**	-0.692^**	-0.656^**	0.185^**	0.358^**

气候因子	未标准化系数		标准化系数	t检验	显著性	共线性统计
气候因子	回归系数	标准误差	回归系数	t检验	显著性	容差	方差膨胀系数（VIF）
常量	-32.340	17.706	-	-1.826	0.068	-	-
气温冻结指数	-0.056	0.004	-0.463	-13.303	0.000	0.494	2.023
气温年较差	-0.144	0.389	-0.012	-0.371	0.711	0.578	1.729
平均相对湿度	0.487	0.286	0.050	1.699	0.090	0.679	1.472
年平均风速	8.445	1.638	0.134	5.154	0.000	0.879	1.138
年极端最低气温	-2.797	0.449	-0.238	-6.229	0.000	0.411	2.433

1981—2018年内蒙古典型草原季节性冻土对气候变化的响应

Response of seasonal frozen soil to climate change on a typical steppe of Inner Mongolia during 1981—2018

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