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  • Jul. 17, 2025

Arid Land Geography ›› 2025, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (5): 812-824.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.407

• Biology and Pedology • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Characteristics of Caragana korshinskii distribution and soil carbon storage in Huan County under different climate scenarios

WU Shuangmei1(), ZHOU Dongmei1, MA Jing1, ZHU Xiaoyan1, ZHANG Jun1(), JIANG Jing2, DONG Qinghan3   

  1. 1. College of Resources and Environmental Science, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China
    2. College of Management, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China
    3. Flemish Institute for Technological Research, Mol 2400, Antwerpen, Belgium
  • Received:2024-07-05 Revised:2024-08-20 Online:2025-05-25 Published:2025-05-13
  • Contact: ZHANG Jun E-mail:17794196372@163.com;zhangjun@gsau.edu.cn

Abstract:

Global climate change and land use alterations significantly affect ecosystem carbon storage. Afforestation enhances carbon sequestration and reduces emissions, thereby improving ecological health. Caragana korshinskii, a widely planted shrub species in northwest China, has important implications for determining afforestation areas and assessing carbon sequestration potential by predicting its suitable habitat. Using 104 distribution points of C. korshinskii and environmental factors from Huan County, Qingyang City, Gansu Province of China, this study employed the optimized MaxEnt model to predict its potential distribution for the current (2000s) and future periods (2030s, 2050s, 2070s). The study also analyzed the major environmental factors affecting its distribution, identified priority and stable afforestation areas using land use data, and estimated future soil carbon storage for C. korshinskii in Huan County. The results indicated the following: (1) The major environmental factors influencing the distribution of C. korshinskii include the mean monthly radiation during the growing season, the coefficient of seasonal variation in temperature, elevation, the mean temperature of the warmest quarter, and isothermality. (2) At present, the potential suitable areas for C. korshinskii are primarily distributed in the western and northern regions of Huan County, covering approximately 16.59% of the county’s total area. (3) Under future climate scenarios, the potential suitable areas for C. korshinskii are expected to expand, with greater growth under the low-emission scenario (SSP126) compared to the high-emission scenario (SSP585). (4) The stable areas of potential distribution for C. korshinskii remain relatively stable, forming continuous and concentrated patches. The expansion areas extend from the west and north toward the center, whereas the lost areas are fragmented and scattered, with a back-and-forth contracting and expanding trend in the distribution pattern of the increased areas and the lost areas. (5) Under the medium-emission scenario (SSP370), soil carbon storage of C. korshinskii is expected to increase rapidly, reaching 1.017×106 t by the 2070s, representing a 2.1-fold increase. However, the rate of increase is slower than that under the low-emission scenario (SSP126) and the high-emission scenario (SSP585).

Key words: climate scenarios, MaxEnt model, potential suitable areas, soil carbon storage, Caragana korshinskii