作物生产潜力变化的区域差异——以陕西省为例

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2019.03.18

Abstract

Abstract:

There were obvious regional differences in crop production potential change caused by the changes in climate and land use.Therefore,it was in urgent need to implement effective solutions and control strategies for different agricultural districts and agricultural production modes.Shaanxi Province,China which was divided into three geographical units was chosen as the research object to explore the trends and influence factors of crop production potential change among different geographical units by using GAEZ.The data required for the GAEZ model mainly included climate,land use,soil,topography and statistics data.The food crops planted in Shaanxi Province were mainly maize and wheat.Through spatial analysis and statistics,the production potential changes of the two crops in different geographical units were calculated.The results showed that the total maize production potential in Shaanxi Province was increased by 150.55×10⁴ t,while the total wheat production potential was decreased by 402.69×10⁴ t between 1980 and 2015.The maize and wheat production potential in Guanzhong Basin were the greatest,followed by Shaanbei Plateau.The maize production potential in Shaanbei Plateau and QinglingDaba Mountains showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing and then increasing again; however,it was decreased first and then increased and then decreased again in Guanzhong Basin.The wheat production potentials in Guanzhong Basin and QinlingDaba Mountains were both decreased,while it was increased by 141.58 kg·hm^-2 in Shaanbei Plateau.The land use change had a subtractive effect on crop production potential,which was particularly significant in Guanzhong Basin.Climate change led to an increase in maize production potential and a decrease in wheat production potential.The impact of climate change on crop production potential presented a yieldincreasing effect in Shaanbei Plateau and a yielddecreasing effect in Guanzhong Basin and QinlingDaba Mountains.In Shaanbei Plateau,the yieldincreasing effect of climate change was the main reason for the improvement of maize and wheat production potential; the impact of climate change on maize production potential was greater than that of wheat; the transformation of farmland to grassland,woodland and construction land was the most important land use change reason for decreasing crop production potential.In Guanzhong Basin,the change of crop production potential was mainly affected by climate change; the effect of climate change on wheat production potential was greater than that of maize; however,the effect of land use change characterized by construction land occupying farmland on maize production potential was greater than that on wheat.In QinlingDaba Mountains,land use change was the main reason for the change of maize production potential; the change of wheat production potential was mainly affected by climate change.It can be concluded that the production potential of maize and wheat in Shaanbei Plateau were both increased,while the crop production capacity was generally declined in other geographical units in Shaanxi Province.Moreover,the increase in crop production potential in the Shaanbei Plateau was mainly caused by climate change.The decline in the production potential of crops in other geographical units was affected by both climate change and land use change.By analyzing the impact of different factors on crop production potential in different geographical units,the main factors limiting the change of crop production potential in different geographical units can be identified.This had important theoretical and practical significance for the rational use of climate resources and giving full play to the potential of crop production in order to increase food production capacity.

Key words: production potential, climate change, land use change, Shaanbei Plateau, Guanzhong Basin, QinlingDaba Mountains

WANG Yingying, ZHANG Yijing, LI Fei, LYU Yan. Regional difference in crop production potential change:A case study of Shaanxi Province[J].Arid Land Geography, 2019, 42(3): 615-624.

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Regional difference in crop production potential change:A case study of Shaanxi Province

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