咸海流域陆地水储量时空变化研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.04.07

Abstract

Abstract:

The Aral Sea, which was once the largest inland lake in Central Asia, is located far from oceans, and thus, a vulnerable hydrological system. The water balance in the lake has changed in recent decades under the combined impacts of climate change and anthropological activities, and problems related to limited water resources and ecological environment have attracted wide attention. Analysis of the variation trend and influencing factors of terrestrial water storage (TWS), one of the most important parameters of land water variation, can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of water resources in the Aral Sea Basin. In this paper, the spatiotemporal variations of terrestrial water storage change (TWSC) in the Aral Sea Basin are evaluated using the JPL-RL06M data collected by the GRACE gravity satellite from 2002 to 2016. CRU TS4.03 meteorological data, GLDAS-Noah surface evapotranspiration data, and high-precision land use data are combined to assess time-series changes in TWSC, precipitation, temperature, and water evaporation via the linear trend method. Using a resolution of 1°×1° pixel, we calculated the correlation coefficients of various parameters, including TWSC, precipitation, and surface temperature, to explore the effects of climate change and anthropological activities on TWS in the Aral Sea Basin. Several interesting results were obtained. (1) The TWS of the Aral Sea Basin declined at a rate of -3.20 mm·a^-1 in 2002—2016. A water surplus in spring and summer and a water deficit in autumn and winter were observed. Moreover, the TWSC of the Aral Sea Basin was characterized by a surplus in the central and eastern regions and deficits in peripheral areas. (2) Precipitation in the Aral Sea Basin in 2002—2016 decreased at a rate of -1.14 mm·a^-1, and the surface temperature increased at a rate of 0.11 °C·a^-1. Precipitation and TWSC were positively correlated in most areas of the Aral Sea Basin but negatively correlated in the middle and lower reaches of the Amu Darya Basin and the lower reaches of the Syr Darya Basin. The surface temperature was negatively correlated with TWSC in most areas, but a positive correlation between these parameters was observed in some areas in the lower reaches of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya River Basins. TWSC was more strongly correlated with precipitation than with surface temperature. (3) In 2000—2015, the cultivated land area in the Aral Sea Basin increased slightly by 1.65×10⁴km², but the grassland and water areas decreased. Increases in water for crop management and irrigation intensified water expenditures from the Aral Sea Basin. Under the joint influence of climate change and anthropological activities, evapotranspiration in the Aral Sea Basin increased at a rate of 21.63×10⁸ m³·a^-1. The correlation coefficient between evapotranspiration and TWSC was as high as 0.74, which means this parameter may be a main factor affecting TWSC.

Key words: Aral Sea Basin, terrestrial water storage, climate change, land use change

LYU Ye,YANG Han,HUANG Yue,BAO Anming,ZAN Chanjuan,LI Wenjing. Spatiotemporal variation of terrestrial water storage in Aral Sea Basin[J].Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(4): 943-952.

Figures/Tables 10

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References 29

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土地利用类型	咸海流域		阿姆河流域		锡尔河流域
土地利用类型	2000年	2015年	2000年	2015年	2000年	2015年
耕地	12.91	14.56	7.94	9.13	4.98	5.43
林地	2.89	3.02	1.70	1.74	1.19	1.27
草地	22.86	21.34	12.49	11.52	10.37	9.82
城乡工矿居民用地	1.95	2.40	1.14	1.40	0.80	1.00
水域	5.35	3.79	4.07	2.45	1.28	1.35
未利用土地	94.33	95.10	80.61	81.64	13.72	13.46

流域		降水量/mm·a^-1	气温/℃·a^-1	陆地水储量/mm·a^-1	蒸散量/10⁸ m³·a^-1	耕地/10⁴ km²
咸海流域		-1.14	0.110	-3.20	21.63	1.65
阿姆河流域	上游	-2.14	0.002	-7.28	3.80	0.04
	中游	-1.07	0.010	1.79	8.48	0.76
	下游	0.27	0.005	-7.36	-0.26	0.39
锡尔河流域	上游	-3.58	-0.003	-3.81	4.33	0.15
	中游	-0.98	0.001	-6.48	2.11	-0.01
	下游	-1.02	0.001	-5.44	2.84	0.31

Spatiotemporal variation of terrestrial water storage in Aral Sea Basin

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