陕西省汛期极端降水概率分布及综合危险性评估

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.567

Abstract

Abstract:

Rainstorms and the resulted floods represent the second most important type of natural disaster in the Shaanxi Province of China. To clearly describe the risk arising from extreme precipitation events, extreme precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity series were constructed using 1969—2020 flood season (May-October) daily precipitation data for Shaanxi Province. Six extreme-value probability distribution models were selected to fit the constructed series to obtain the optimal probability distribution model for flood season extreme precipitation and to evaluate the future trend of extreme precipitation events in Shaanxi Province. The comprehensive risk of extreme precipitation was evaluated based on spatial risk distributions of different scenarios in Shaanxi Province. The results showed that: (1) Through error analysis and comparison, the Wakeby probability distribution was found to be the optimal model for fitting the sequence of extreme precipitation indicators during the flood season in Shaanxi Province, accounting for the largest proportion of extreme values in the three constructed series. (2) Extreme precipitation values with different return periods were calculated and compared with existing maximum precipitation values. An increased probability of low-probability and high-risk extreme precipitation events was found for most areas of Shaanxi Province. (3) The comprehensive risk of extreme precipitation during the flood season was found to be generally high in the south and low in the north of Shaanxi Province. Risk areas differed between scenarios of 2-, 5-, 10-, 20-, 50-, and 100-year return periods. With increasing return periods, the low-risk area gradually reduced and the high-risk area gradually increased. In the 100-year return period scenario, the high-risk area increased from 0 to 22.0%. The study provides a reference for the investigation of extreme precipitation probability distributions in Shaanxi Province and provides a theoretical basis for extreme precipitation risk management and assessment during flood seasons.

Key words: extreme precipitation, probability distribution, hazard analysis, risk assessment, Shaanxi Province

SHI Weiliang, CHE Luyang, LI Tao. Probability distribution and comprehensive risk assessment of extreme precipitation in flood season in Shaanxi Province[J].Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(9): 1407-1417.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Expression of cumulative distribution function of different probability distribution models"

分布模型	累积分布函数	参数说明
Gen.Extreme Value（GEV）	$F (x) = e x p - (1 + k z) - 1 / k k ≠ 0 e x p (- e - z), k = 0, z = x - μ σ$	$μ$ 、 $σ$ 、 $k$ 分别为尺度参数、位置参数、形状参数
Gen.Pareto（GP）	$F (x) = 1 - 1 - k x - β α 1 k, k ≠ 0, β ≤ x ≤ α x$	$α$ 、 $k$ 分别为尺度参数、形状参数； $β$ 为门限值
P-Ⅲ型	$F (x) = τ x / β (α) τ (α)$	$α 、 β$ 分别为形状参数、尺度参数
Gen.Logistic	$F (x) = 1 1 + e x p (- x) c + 1$	c为形状参数
Lognormal	$F (x) = ϕ l n (x - γ) - μ σ$	$μ$ 为对数均值、 $σ$ 为对数标准差、 $γ$ 为位置参数

Tab. 1

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Tab. 3

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

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Fig. 5

Tab. 5

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分布模型	通过率
分布模型	极端降水量	极端降水频次	极端降水强度
Wakeby	100.00	100.00	100.00
GEV	100.00	100.00	100.00
GP	100.00	100.00	100.00
P-Ⅲ	100.00	100.00	100.00
Gen.Logistic	100.00	96.87	96.87
Lognormal	100.00	62.50	87.50

等级	极端降水量/mm	极端降水频次/次	极端降水强度/mm·d^-1
低	<25	<3	<50
较低	25~50	3~6	50~65
中	50~100	6~8	65~80
较高	100~250	8~10	80~95
高	>250	>10	>95

危险等级	重现期
危险等级	2 a	5 a	10 a	20 a	50 a	100 a
低	84.9	39.3	2.6	0.0	0.0	0.0
较低	15.1	54.3	72.5	52.1	4.3	0.0
中	0.0	6.4	23.2	35.7	63.4	45.3
较高	0.0	0.0	1.7	12.1	28.6	32.7
高	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	3.7	22.0

Probability distribution and comprehensive risk assessment of extreme precipitation in flood season in Shaanxi Province

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分布模型	站点个数
分布模型	极端降水量序列	极端降水频次序列	极端降水强度序列
Wakeby	20	16	25
GEV	2	5	1
GPD	4	5	0
P-Ⅲ	1	4	0
Gen.Logistic	1	2	5
Lognormal	4	0	1

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