基于RClimDex模型的近60 a中亚极端降水事件变化特征

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.511

Abstract

Abstract:

In this study, based on the RClimDex model, we considered daily precipitation data from 126 meteorological stations in Central Asia from 1960 to 2020 to calculate eight extreme precipitation indices in Central Asia. We performed linear regression, Mann-Kendall, correlation, wavelet, and rescaled range analyses to investigate the characteristics of extreme precipitation events in Central Asia. The results revealed that: (1) The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in Central Asia have increased considerably in the last 60 years. The climate trend of the simple precipitation intensity index (SDII) increased at an average of 0.02 mm·d⁻¹·(10a)⁻¹. The change tendency rates of extreme precipitation index heavy precipitation (R95p), maximum daily precipitation (Rx1day), maximum precipitation for five consecutive days (Rx5day), total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT)] were 1.93 mm·(10a)⁻¹, 0.24 mm·(10a)⁻¹, 0.66 mm·(10a)⁻¹, and 0.73 mm·(10a)⁻¹, respectively. The extreme precipitation days index [middle precipitation days (R10), continuous dry days (CDD), continuous wet days (CWD)] also exhibited a slight increase, with the exception of the number of CDD, which exhibited a decreasing trend. The change tendency rates were 0.02 d·(10a)⁻¹, −0.65 d·(10a)⁻¹, and 0.08 d·(10a)⁻¹, respectively. Extreme precipitation exhibit obvious spatial variability and high altitude dependence and occur frequently near highlands and mountains. The extreme precipitation cycle in Central Asia is characterized by a multipeaked spectrum with short-period oscillations of approximately 5 years, medium-period oscillations of 6-9 years, and long-period oscillations of 10-15 years. (2) The extreme precipitation index exhibits an excellent correlation with the total annual precipitation, and CWD contributes most to the total annual precipitation. The Pacific interdecadal oscillation (PDO) and the North Atlantic interdecadal oscillation (AMO) exhibit significant positive correlation with extreme precipitation events. Both PDO and AMO are the primary climate system internal variability modes that affect abrupt changes in extreme precipitation in Central Asia. The results of the R/S analysis indicates that in the future, the indices of PRCPTOT R95p, Rx1day, Rx5day, SDII, and CWD are likely to continue to increase in the future with high persistence, whereas CDD is likely to continue to exhibit a decreasing trend with average persistence. This study can provide a scientific basis for the extreme climate prediction, natural environment protection, disaster prevention, and mitigation in Central Asia.

Key words: extreme precipitation, spatial distribution, correlation analysis, wavelet analysis, Central Asia

HUANG Xin, JIAO Li, MA Xiaofei, WANG Yonghui, Aerman ABULA. Change characteristics of extreme precipitation events in Central Asia in recent 60 years based on RClimDex model[J].Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(7): 1039-1051.

Figures/Tables 8

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类别	分类	名称	定义	代码
极端降水指数	降水量指数	年总降水量/mm	日降水量≥1 mm的降水总量	PRCPTOT
		连续5 d最大降水量/mm	连续5 d最大降水量	Rx5day
		强降水量/mm	日降水量>95%分位值的累积降水量	R95p
		降水强度/mm·d^-1	单日降水量≥1 mm的总量与总天数之比	SDII
		单日最大降水量/mm	每月最大单日降水量	Rx1day
	降水日指数	持续干燥日数/d	日降水量<1 mm的最长连续天数	CDD
		持续湿润日数/d	日降水量≥1 mm的最长连续天数	CWD
		中雨日数/d	每年日降水量≥10 mm的总天数	R10

年代	PRCPTOT/mm	SDII/mm·d^-1	Rx5day/mm	Rx1day/mm	R95p/mm	R10/d	CWD/d	CDD/d
20世纪60年代	246.631	4.620	28.043	22.541	45.020	6.004	2.874	93.503
20世纪70年代	239.754	4.621	30.115	23.531	44.682	5.521	2.802	95.370
20世纪80年代	319.963	4.642	30.464	23.692	46.821	5.552	2.661	100.741
20世纪90年代	246.882	4.802	32.046	24.581	51.216	5.730	3.080	90.642
21世纪初	269.637	4.583	30.353	23.870	51.656	5.854	3.101	93.623
21世纪10年代	248.254	4.810	32.350	24.000	53.817	5.973	3.243	91.131

指数	相关系数（r）
指数	CDD	CWD	PRCPTOT	R10	R95p	SDII	Rx5day	Rx1day
AO	0.117	0.141	-0.094	-0.269^*	0.016	-0.033	0.068	0.019
AMO	-0.294^*	0.607^**	0.032	0.432^**	0.528^**	0.212	0.219	0.065
NAO	0.072	0.061	0.004	-0.129	0.031	0.142	0.194	0.171
PDO	-0.100	0.102	0.297^*	0.235	0.329^**	0.426^**	0.520^**	0.511^**
SOI	0.089	-0.098	-0.132	-0.203	-0.122	-0.199	-0.244	-0.330^**
EA	0.156	-0.408^**	-0.112	-0.186	-0.434^**	-0.195	-0.308^*	-0.117
ONI	-0.113	0.097	0.108	0.297^*	0.089	0.166	0.183	0.238
PRCPTOT	-0.131	0.601^**	-	0.192	0.265^*	0.357^**	0.313^*	0.331^**

指数	CDD	CWD	PRCPTOT	R10	R95p	SDII	Rx5day	Rx1day
Hurst	0.564	0.993	0.707	0.772	0.989	0.679	0.843	0.763
D	1.436	1.007	1.293	1.228	1.011	1.321	1.157	1.237

Change characteristics of extreme precipitation events in Central Asia in recent 60 years based on RClimDex model

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