基于GRACE卫星数据的中国陆地水储量变化和影响因素分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.629

Abstract

Abstract:

Determining the spatial distribution characteristics and changes in terrestrial water storage and understanding the reasons behind these terrestrial water storage changes (TWSC) are necessary for the sustainable and comprehensive management of water resources. Based on the data of the TWSC obtained by the gravity recovery and climate experiment satellite retrieval, this study first analyzes the trend and spatiotemporal variation characteristics of the TWSC in China using the Mann-Kendall trend test and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Subsequently, 10 influencing factors were selected to comprehensively analyze their relationship with the TWSC by employing the following three methods: geographic detector, Pearson correlation analysis, and random forest. The 10 influencing factors were temperature, precipitation, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), area proportion of impervious layer, area proportion of water body, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), elevation, slope, gross domestic product (GDP), and population. The results showed that areas with a significant increase in terrestrial water storage were mainly distributed in the areas near the Songhua River, Nenjiang River, and Songnen Plain, and the belt of the Qaidam Basin-Yangtze River-southeast coastal region, while areas with a significant decrease in terrestrial water storage were mainly distributed in southwest China and the belt of the Xinjiang-Loess Plateau-North China Plain. From high to low latitudes, the terrestrial water storage showed an alternating change pattern of high-low-high-low. Overall, meteorological factors had the strongest explanatory power for the TWSC, followed by socioeconomic factors and geomorphologic and geologic factors. Lag-correlation analyses showed that the monthly TWSC had a time lag response to precipitation, temperature, SPEI, and NDVI. The time lag of the monthly TWSC for each factor was different in the different regions. The response of TWSC to precipitation and SPEI mainly showed one-month lag, and the response of TWSC to temperature and NDVI mainly showed no lag (i.e. 0-month lag).

Key words: terrestrial water storage change, GRACE satellite, impact analysis, time-lag effect

SHI Zhenjun, ZHU Xiufang, TANG Yijuan. Changes and influencing factors of terrestrial water storage in China based on GRACE satellite data[J].Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(9): 1397-1406.

Figures/Tables 10

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References 27

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影响因子	q值	排序	影响因子	q值	排序
降水量	0.276	1	DEM	0.042	6
温度	0.149	2	人口	0.035	7
SPEI	0.064	3	GDP	0.028	8
NDVI	0.050	4	坡度	0.017	9
不透水层占比	0.044	5	水体占比	0.001	10

影响因子	DEM	GDP	NDVI	人口	降水量	SPEI	温度	不透水层占比	水体占比	坡度
DEM	0.042	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
GDP	0.085	0.028	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
NDVI	0.116	0.092	0.050	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
人口	0.096	0.049	0.102	0.035	-	-	-	-	-	-
降水量	0.377	0.343	0.349	0.353	0.276	-	-	-	-	-
SPEI	0.184	0.170	0.146	0.172	0.373	0.064	-	-	-	-
温度	0.308	0.218	0.220	0.233	0.461	0.341	0.149	-	-	-
不透水层占比	0.140	0.082	0.117	0.093	0.337	0.143	0.248	0.044	-	-
水体占比	0.069	0.043	0.059	0.053	0.308	0.082	0.186	0.075	0.001	-
坡度	0.093	0.056	0.070	0.063	0.293	0.087	0.190	0.068	0.037	0.017

影响因子	DEM	GDP	NDVI	人口	降水量	SPEI	温度	不透水层占比	坡度
GDP	N	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
NDVI	N	N	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
人口	N	N	N	-	-	-	-	-	-
降水量	Y	Y	Y	Y	-	-	-	-	-
SPEI	N	Y	N	Y	N	-	-	-	-
温度	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	-	-	-
不透水层占比	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	-	-
坡度	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	-
水体占比	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N	N

影响因子	重要性值	排序	影响因子	重要性值	排序
降水量	0.335	1	DEM	0.072	6
温度	0.160	2	NDVI	0.059	7
SPEI	0.110	3	坡度	0.039	8
人口	0.082	4	不透水层占比	0.038	9
GDP	0.073	5	水体占比	0.032	10

影响因子	是否通过			影响因子	是否通过
影响因子	相关系数	显著性检验	排序	影响因子	相关系数	显著性检验	排序
降水量	0.339	是	1	GDP	-0.035	是	6
SPEI	0.207	是	2	温度	0.03	是	7
不透水层	-0.16	是	3	DEM	-0.014	否	8
坡度	-0.101	是	4	人口	-0.012	否	9
NDVI	0.048	是	5	水体占比	-0.005	否	10

Changes and influencing factors of terrestrial water storage in China based on GRACE satellite data

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影响因子	不同滞后时长下的栅格数目占比
影响因子	0个月滞后	1个月滞后	2个月滞后	3个月滞后
NDVI	42.0	40.0	9.2	8.8
降水量	24.3	42.1	23.0	10.6
温度	43.7	9.0	18.2	29.2
SPEI	25.3	30.8	15.4	28.5

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